Wednesday , February 24 2021
Home / Tag Archives: Market Outlook

Tag Archives: Market Outlook

Stocks Bet on a Deal

Cable gives up the Sunday gap Equities bet on stimulus Nikkei -0.17% Dax 0.86% UST 10Y 0.90 Oil $47 Gold $1846/oz. BTCUSD $19197/oz. Asia and the EU EUR CPI -0.2% vs. -0.2% US USD IP 9:15 USD Economic Optimism 10:00 Equities were well bid in Asian and early European trade with stock index futures up by nearly 50 basis points as investors remained optimistic that some sort of fiscal stimulus package would be passed before Congress closes its session for holidays. The compromise bill now...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Algos Go Wild?

We have a big economic calendar jammed into three trading days. The reports are of moderate interest – consumer confidence, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and new home sales. In the current environment these will not provide market-moving news. With most of the A-Team taking the week off (and even B-Team players leaving early on Wednesday), trading volume will be lower. Normally this means low volume and little volatility. Perhaps not this time. The field is open for...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: The Elusive Logic of Mr. Market

We have a very light economic calendar, and the earnings season is winding down. The punditry loves these opportunities. Rather than dealing with data, the field is open for speculation! This has already begun. Even before results were known, every news source was speculating about events and the apparently strange behavior of financial markets. Craving simple and consistent explanations, pundits are on a quest, asking What is the elusive logic of Mr. Market? In my last installment of...

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Euro Takes A Beating; Equities Hit Fresh Highs

Euro falls through 1.9000 Nas and SP at new highs Nikkei 0.47% Dax 2.42% UST 10Y 0.68 Oil $43 Gold $1970/oz BTCUSD $11745/oz Asia and the EU AUD GBP -7.0% EUR Retail Sales -0.9% North America Open USD ADP Employment 8:15 Equities continued to soar to fresh highs in Asian and early European trade driven by momentum buying from yesterday’s US session as investors remained hopeful that the worst of the COVID induced slowdown is over and that global economic growth will return with a...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Your Personal Downside Risk?

The economic calendar is light with a focus on home sales.  Unemployment claims data remains an especially important indicator.  Second quarter earnings reports will be more important than the economic data, but I do not expect much fresh information on COVID-19 and earnings outlook.  The average investor gets little help from any of these reports and certainly not from the punditry.  They are on their own with the key question: What is my personal downside risk? My goal is to provide...

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Civil Unrest? Markets – Don’t Worry Be Happy!

Futures reverse losses turn green UK Consumer Credit Mortage approvals miss Nikkei 1.19% Dax 3.33%% UST 10Y 0.66 Oil $36/bbl Gold $1740/oz BTCUSD $10135 Asia and the EU GBP Mortgage Approvals 15K vs. 22K North America Open No Data A powerful reversal in risk today in European trade helped turn futures positive as markets ignored the social unrest in the US and focused instead on news that China may continue to buy US soybeans. As we noted yesterday the only thing that seems to derail...

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US China Tensions Dominate Trade

Market Drivers November 20, 2019 US and China spat over HK Fed minutes on tap Nikkei -0.53% Dax 0.79% UST 10Y 1.74% Oil $55/bbl Gold $1475/oz BTCUSD $8130 Europe and Asia: No Data North America: CAD CPI 8:30 USD Fed Minutes 14:00 FX markets remained very quiet but clearly had a risk-off tilt as equity markets across the globe sold off on escalating US-China tensions. Last night US Senate unanimously passed a resolution in support of Hong Kong protesters raising the ire of officials in...

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Are We Setting Up for Risk-Off Sell Off in FX?

Market Drivers November 13, 2019 RBNZ surprises by holding rates steady All eyes on Powel Nikkei -0.85% Dax -0.76% UST 10Y 1.87% Oil $56/bbl Gold $1464/oz BTCUSD $8802 Europe and Asia: NZD RBNZ rates at 1.00 vs. 0.75% GBP UK CPI 1.5% vs. 1.6% North America: USD Chair Powell Testiomony 11:00 FX markets were in mild risk-off tone ahead of Fed Chair Powell testimony in front of Congress with USDJPY trading just below the 109.00 figure in morning London dealing. Overnight the kiwi was the...

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GBP – How to Trade the Brexit Vote

GBP – How to Trade the Brexit Vote Daily FX Market Roundup Jan 14, 2019 For the next 48 hours, there’s nothing more important than the Brexit vote. Members of Parliament will begin voting on Prime Minister May’s withdrawal agreement at 7pm London time on Tuesday. There is no specific time for the vote to end, but it should happen in the late North American or early Asia session. At this point, May is expected to lose by a margin big enough to force her to seek an Article 50 extension....

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Forget NFP. Fed Powell Crushes USD and Cements AUD & CAD Bottoms

Forget NFP. Fed Powell Crushes Dollar and Cements AUD & CAD Bottoms Daily FX Market Roundup Jan 4, 2019 After a week like the one we’ve had, everyone is wondering if 2019 will be a year where 500+ point daily moves in the Dow and 100 pip rollercoaster rides in currencies become the norm. Although the moves in FX don’t seem significant, on an intraday basis the swings have been wild. The year started with a warning that slower Chinese demand took a big bite out of sales in the fourth...

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