Wednesday , October 23 2019
Home / Tag Archives: margin debt

Tag Archives: margin debt

The Fed & The Stability/Instability Paradox

“Only those that risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” – T.S. Eliot Well, this certainly seems to be the path that the Federal Reserve, and global Central Banks, have decided take. Yesterday, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter-point and maintained their “dovish” stance but suggested they are open to “allowing the balance sheet to grow.” While this isn’t anything more than just stopping Q.T. entirely, the markets took this as a sign that Q.E. is just around the...

Read More »

The August Jobs Report Confirms The Economy Is Slowing

After the monthly jobs report was released last week, I saw numerous people jumping on the unemployment rate as a measure of success, and in this particular case, Trump’s success as President. Unemployment November 2016: 4.7% Unemployment August 2019: 3.7% Argument solved. President Trump has been “Yuugely” successful at putting people to work as represented by a 1% decline in the unemployment rate since his election. But what about President Obama? Unemployment November 2008: 12.6%...

Read More »

No Matter What The Fed Does, It’s Bullish?

It’s Bullish…Always Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced the latest decision concerning monetary policy which contained three primary components: A cut of 25bps Stopping balance sheet reductions (or Quantitative Tightening or Q.T.) An outlook suggestive this may be the only rate cut for a while. While stocks dropped on disappointment they Fed may not cut further; it didn’t take long for bullish commentators to start suggesting why the cuts were supportive of higher asset prices....

Read More »

Strongest Economy Ever? I Warned You About Negative Revisions

Over the last 18-months, there has been a continual drone of political punditry touting the success of “Trumponomics” as measured by various economic data points. Even the President himself has several times taken the opportunity to tweet about the “strongest economy ever.” But if it is the “strongest economy ever,” then why the need for aggressive rate cuts which are “emergency measures” to be utilized to offset recessionary conditions? What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: 5-Charts Invested Bears Are Watching Now

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rather severe extensions of the market above both the longer-term bullish trend and the 200-dma. To wit: There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in the chart below. A geopolitical event, a shift in expectations, or an acceleration in economic weakness in the U.S. could spark a mean-reverting event which would be quite the norm of what we have seen in recent years.” “As...

Read More »

Questions About The “Stellar” June Jobs Report (Which Also Confirm The Fed’s Concerns)

On Wednesday, Jerome Powell testified before Congress the U.S. economy is “suffering” from a bout of uncertainty caused by trade tensions and slow global growth. To wit: “Since [the Fed meeting in mid-June], based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.” That outlook, however, would seem to be askew of the recent employment report for June...

Read More »

The Fed, QE, & Why Rates Are Going To Zero

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his opening remarks at a monetary policy conference in Chicago, raised concerns about the rising trade tensions in the U.S., “We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved. As always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective.” However, while there was nothing “new” in that comment it was his following statement that sent “shorts”...

Read More »

The Message From The Jobs Report – The Economy Is Slowing

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the March monthly “employment report” which showed an increase in employment of 196,000 jobs. As Mike Shedlock noted on Friday: “The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised up from +311,000 to +312,000, and the change for February was revised up from +20,000 to +33,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 14,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job...

Read More »

You Have A “Trading” Problem – 10 Steps To Fix It

In April of 2018, I wrote an article entitled “10-Reasons The Bull Market Ended In 2018” in which I concluded: “There is a reasonably high possibility, the bull market that started in 2009 has ended. We may not know for a week, a month or even possibly a couple of quarters. Topping processes in markets can take a very long time. If I am right, the conservative stance and hedges in portfolios will protect capital in the short-term. The reduced volatility allows for a logical approach to...

Read More »

Did The Market Miss Powell’s Real Message?

Last week, I discussed the recent message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell which sent the markets surging higher. “During his speech, Powell took to a different tone than seen previously and specifically when he stated that current rates are ‘just below’ the range of estimates for a ‘neutral rate.’ This is a sharply different tone than seen previously when he suggested that a “neutral rate” was still a long way off. Importantly, while the market surged higher after the comments on the...

Read More »