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Tag Archives: Making Sense

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 3: The Making Of Fed Mistakes, Volcker’s Enduring Myth

122.3 1970s stagflation? No! But NOT why you think…———Ep 122.3 Summary———“Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present,” writes The Economist. Jeff Snider agrees, but for entirely different reasons. Stagnation? Yes, definitely. But NOT inflation – despite the clear price increases! Wait, what?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 2: Certain Commodities Speak, Will Anyone Hear Them?

122.2 Commodity Prices Are Telling Us This… ———Ep 122.2 Summary———We review palladium, copper and iron ore – all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too). Some commodities continue to rise in value, specifically energy. How do we reconcile the deflationary/disinflationary former to the inflationary latter? Also, US auto sales. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 3: For Bonds, A Collateral Scarcity ‘Dashboard’

115.3 Seven Warning Signs to Watch in Debt Ceiling Drama ———Ep 115.3 Summary———Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 2: The Fall For Bond, Treasury Bond

115.2 US Treasury Bonds lose value each Autumn – Why?———Ep 115.2 Summary———Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or dovish. Why? We offer five theories. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 1: The Autumn(s) Of (Bond) Discontent

115.1 Why do US Treasury Bonds lose value ‘every’ August !?———Ep 115.1 Summary———US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—’every’ August. But why?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 108, Part 3: The Several Cycles of Inventory

108.3 The Inventory Cycle is Coming!! (or is it?) ———Ep 108.3 Summary———Will 2022-demand be strong enough to absorb 2021-supply surges? A review of the US inventory cycle and how global covid-related restrictions have convinced retailers, wholesalers and producers to surge goods orders. If demand isn’t there, they will have over-ordered. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 108, Part 2: Explaining The Significant Significance of Swap Spreads

108.2 Most UNDERRATED Anti-Taper Market-Warning Ever———Ep 108.2 Summary———Interest rate swap spreads are negative. These ‘underwater’ derivatives indicate very high market demand relative to money dealer supply. So, if bank balance sheet capacity remains constrained–available only at a premium–that means there’s not enough ‘money’ in the world economy. ———See It———...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 108, Part 1: The TrICk To Dollar Funding

108.1 Offshore Shadow Money – the Latest News———Ep 108.1 Summary———Offshore shadow money funds the global economy, but it lies in the shadows; it’s off-balance sheet and off-the-regulatory-radar. A good place to get a sense of offshore shadow money is the Treasury International Capital report. Jeff Snider serves as our guide through July’s data – and warnings. ———See It———...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 100, Part 3: For Our Hundredth, What Else Would It Be? INFLATION

100.3 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Import Prices ———Ep 100.3 Summary———Import and export prices are elevated in the US, but decelerating. They’re high because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Import/export prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 100, Part 2: For Our Hundredth, What Else Would It Be? INFLATION

100.2 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Consumer Prices ———Ep 100.2 Summary———Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They’re elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra...

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