Thursday , August 22 2019
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Tag Archives: Lance Roberts

The “Trade War” Is Over, Trump Just Doesn’t Realize It Yet.

On Tuesday, the markets bid higher following a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office that tariffs will commence on September 1st, but that some products will be delayed until December 15th. To wit: “…some tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 as planned, ‘certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent. Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing...

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Pay Attention To The Message The Yield Curve Is Sending 08-16-19

Quick Review Listen To The Yield Curve Message No One Ever Says Sell Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Quick Review Do you love #volatility yet?  Last week the market swung wildly back on forth on “trade talks,” “tariff relief,” inverted yield curves, and recession fears to finish the week on “hopes” banks will rescue the markets once again. The bounce on Friday, was not unexpected as the market had...

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Risk Happens Fast. Is The Selling Over? 08-09-19

Risk Happens Fast Is The Selling Over? Risk Happens Slowly, Too. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Risk Happens Fast Over the last few weeks, we’ve been discussing the potential for a correction due to the extreme extension of the market above the 200-dma. To wit: “In the very short-term, the market is grossly extended and in need of some correction action to return the market to a more normal state. As...

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Fed Rate Cut – Too Little, Too Late, As Trump Hikes Tariffs 08-02-19

Review & Market Update Risk Is Now Elevated Low Yields Don’t Support Higher Valuations Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update I am on vacation this week, but there is so much going on I couldn’t miss penning a few quick views. I have also solicited some help from some friends.  First, let’s review where we are from last week.  “While the market is rallying in anticipation of...

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Strongest Economy Ever? I Warned You About Negative Revisions

Over the last 18-months, there has been a continual drone of political punditry touting the success of “Trumponomics” as measured by various economic data points. Even the President himself has several times taken the opportunity to tweet about the “strongest economy ever.” But if it is the “strongest economy ever,” then why the need for aggressive rate cuts which are “emergency measures” to be utilized to offset recessionary conditions? What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and...

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The 5-Mental Traps Investors Are Falling Into Right Now

I recently wrote about the “F.I.R.E.” movement and how it is a byproduct of late-stage bull market cycle. It isn’t just the “can’t lose” ideas which are symptomatic of bullish cycles, but also the actual activities of investors as well. Not surprisingly, the deviation of growth over value has become one of the largest in history. This divergence of the “performance chase” should be a reminder of Benjamin Graham’s immortal warning: “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy,...

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Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19

Review & Market Update Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard The Real Crisis Is Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in...

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The $6 Trillion Pension Bailout Is Coming

Fiscal responsibility is dead. This past week, Trump announced he had reached an agreement with Congress to pass a continuing resolution which will suspend the debt ceiling until July 2021. The good news is that it will ONLY increase spending by just $320 billion.  What a bargain, right? It’s a lie. That is just the “starting point” of proposed spending. Without a “debt ceiling” to constrain spending, the actual spending will be substantially higher. However, the $320 billion is also...

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F.I.R.E. – Ignited By The Bull, Extinguished By The Bear

Do you remember this commercial? The Etrade commercial aired during Super Bowl XLI in 2007. The following year, the financial crisis set in, markets plunged, and investors lost 50%, or more, of their wealth. However, this wasn’t the first time it happened. The same thing happened in late 1999. This commercial was aired 2-months shy of the beginning of the “Dot.com” bust as investors once again believed “investing was as easy as 1-2-3.” Why this trip down...

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Why The Fed Could Cut By 50bps & Why It Won’t Matter 07-19-19

Review & Market Update Why The Fed Could Cut By 50bps Why It Won’t Matter Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out the bull and bear case for the market: The Bull Case For 3300 Momentum Stock Buybacks Fed Rate Cuts Stoppage of QT Trade Deal The Bear Case Against 3300 Earnings Deterioration Recession No Trade Deal/Higher Tariffs Credit-Related Event (Junk...

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