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Tag Archives: Labor Market

Weeks of Weak Claims On Growing Claims of Weeks of Weak Demand

At some point, the thing actually has to happen. You can only keep talking about the thing for so long before people start to get wise. And most people, especially those in the public who understandably don’t following the thing closely, or the things related to it, are incredibly patient. Time and time again, they prove willing to give experts, officials, anyone with the “right” pedigree substantial leeway. It’s temporary, dare I write “transitory” though. In 2018, we kept hearing about...

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QE Didn’t JOLT (again)

COVID-19 is a 2020 story and not so much one for 2021. Pretty much everyone, however, will be seeking to make it that way. To begin this week a stark reminder of that promise: vaccine-phoria. While that unleashed a curiously narrow risk and reflation frenzy, the fact that it wasn’t more widespread speaks to this disparity.A vaccine doesn’t really change all that much over the intermediate term. An unquestionable good for public health (whatever that means) and a positive development given...

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Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers

The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate for that month hit five on the nose.In the mainstream Economic policy manual in use at the time, this was the signal to begin putting the brakes on the economy...

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Good Payrolls Still Say Slowdown

The payroll report for the month of October 2020 was a very good one. This shouldn’t be surprising, perfect BLS publications appear with regularity even during the most challenging of circumstances. Headlines and underneath, everything looked fine last month. It wasn’t perfect, however, and it’s the same things that leave it short of perfection which are entirely too familiar for this last decade of the occasional perfect payroll publication. Meaning, yes, highlighting the unemployment...

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Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way to the end of October.First alerted to this possibility by jobless claims because these figures are the closest to real-time...

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Counting The Corroborated Stall, Not The Coming Lawfare Election Mess

While we wait for the electoral count to be sorted out by what we hope are competent and honest people (not holding our breath), there’s a greater muddle growing where it actually counts and where it’s never fully nor properly accounted. By a large and growing number of accounts, the US economy’s rebound seems to have stalled out back around June or July, an inflection unrelated to COVID case counts, too.The rebound is still rebounding, of course, and this upturn from May’s bottom produced...

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Roaring GDP, So What’s That In The I

US GDP both nominal and real came roaring back in Q3. Posting its largest single quarter gain ever, and it’s not even close, the domestic economy appears to have surmounted the COVID obstacles as well as others imposed by Q1’s GFC2. These estimates are the most gigantic yet. By the numbers, real GDP was $18.6 trillion (SAAR) during Q3, up from a revised $17.3 trillion low during Q2. In terms of quarterly changes, the decline had been -37.7% (continuously compounded annual rate) followed by...

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It Just Isn’t Enough

The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state. Government officials have decided to pause their efforts for two weeks so as to try and sort out what “might” be widespread fraud.The state is also using this time to get after a substantial backlog of previous initial claims yet to be processed. So, possibly fewer...

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Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments. The Establishment Survey.Its cousin is called the Household Survey, or CPS, the Current Population Survey, which comes at everything...

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What’s Job (cuts) Got To Do With It (everything)

Survivor’s euphoria, but then what? Reopening momentum, though would that be enough on its own? More of a concern, the uptrend was heavily infused by government intervention. How much was organic, how much wastefully artificial (in the sense of “stimulus”; as economic aid, it was necessary)? So many questions, so much to try and sort out as we enter the all-important Q4. The second quarter broke downside records and introduced really the only thing that will matter. With tens of millions...

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