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Tag Archives: labor force

Old Numbers Show Us Why There’ll Be New Checks

If the payroll numbers are old news because they aren’t supposed to matter anymore, what with TGA drawdowns and vaccines, then JOLTS figures one month further behind them must count for even less. Gradation does factor here, though, and that’s why it’s important to keep the current and slightly-in-arrears data in mind.What I mean is that the stimulus-frenzy narrative does begin by recognizing how “things are bad.” In fact, that’s the whole point behind the desire for Uncle Sam writing out...

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What Happened To The ‘Bring Everything Back’ Function?

The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS – using data from the Census Bureau – believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongside the current payroll report, the count was adjusted downward by around 400,000 consistent with the same kind and level revisions of the prior couple years.Demographic trends like this aren’t normally taken for a positive. But...

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Closing The Books on 2020 Didn’t Close The Books

ADP let the cat of the bag on Wednesday when the payroll processing provider announced it believed the level of private employment had declined in December 2020. Since it wasn’t likely to have been wildly inaccurate, it set the stage for a renewed negative number in the main government payroll report released today.According to those BLS’s Current Employment Statistics (CES), the Establishment Survey did indeed fall. During the month of December, the agency believes that somewhere around...

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15/12/20: Impact of Covid19 on families & labor

Some interesting research on the less tangible differential impacts of Covid19 pandemic via McKinsey: families with children and families without childrenIn all categories, impact of the pandemic has been more severe on families with children. Predictably, as parents are facing increased demand on household work and higher pressure of increased density of living.Closure of schools or flex-model (partial closure) are probably one of the key drivers:Public safety during the pandemic might...

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No Doubt, There Really Will Be Two “L’s” In Payrolls

Bad news is good news? The payroll report for November 2020, like those of the previous four months, have only further corroborated and confirmed the untimely death of the recovery. Since actual recovery can take only a “V” shape, then the end of the “V” necessarily means the end of recovery.In the twisted world of mainstream assumptions, however, fret none. The worse it gets, the more the government will do…to accomplish what, though? Don’t ask, just believe. Richard Clarida, one of the...

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It Will Have To Be Our New Weekly Ritual

It has become our new weekly ritual, though I dearly wish it was anything but. The Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration informs the country every Thursday just how many (or a reasonable approximation) of its citizens, formerly working, have filed for determination of unemployment insurance eligibility. Eight months after the initial eruption, we are nowhere near back to normal.In fact, the numbers continue to be staggeringly huge – which is why this has to become a...

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QE Didn’t JOLT (again)

COVID-19 is a 2020 story and not so much one for 2021. Pretty much everyone, however, will be seeking to make it that way. To begin this week a stark reminder of that promise: vaccine-phoria. While that unleashed a curiously narrow risk and reflation frenzy, the fact that it wasn’t more widespread speaks to this disparity.A vaccine doesn’t really change all that much over the intermediate term. An unquestionable good for public health (whatever that means) and a positive development given...

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Slowdown In The Rebound; Stop Listening To Central Bankers

The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate for that month hit five on the nose.In the mainstream Economic policy manual in use at the time, this was the signal to begin putting the brakes on the economy...

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It Just Isn’t Enough

The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state. Government officials have decided to pause their efforts for two weeks so as to try and sort out what “might” be widespread fraud.The state is also using this time to get after a substantial backlog of previous initial claims yet to be processed. So, possibly fewer...

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Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments. The Establishment Survey.Its cousin is called the Household Survey, or CPS, the Current Population Survey, which comes at everything...

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