Saturday , July 24 2021
Home / Tag Archives: Jobs

Tag Archives: Jobs

Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally

Overview: Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling.  The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction.  The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower.   Fed Chair Powell did not break new ground yesterday and insisted that the bar of "significant further progress" has not been met to begin reducing its bond purchases.   A possible deal in OPEC saw a sharp drop in crude oil prices,...

Read More »

No Inflation In These Payrolls

Payrolls for the month of June were a mixed bag, in that the payroll data was better than expected at the same time nothing else was. After a couple months of ho-hum gains for the Establishment Survey, government hiring (mostly) boosted the latest monthly figure to +853,000. This brings the 6-month average up to +543,000, which is either really good and pointing to a reopening economy or not nearly enough because it doesn’t point to anything more than a reopening economy.Right away,...

Read More »

US Jobs and OPEC+ Day

Overview: The US jobs report and OPEC+ decision are awaited.  The dollar remains bid.  Only the yen and Canadian dollar are showing a hint of resilience, though, on the week, the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies are off between around 1-2%.   The greenback is also firmer against the emerging market currency complex, and the JP Morgan index is off for the sixth consecutive session.  The Brazilian real is the strongest currency in the world last month and is leading this week's losses with a...

Read More »

US and Canada Report on Jobs as G7 Fin Mins Talk Taxes

Overview: Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today's monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were forced to cover.  The greenback is mixed now, with the yen, sterling, and Antipodeans slightly firmer. The Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and euro are still heavy.  The dollar is rising against most emerging market currencies, though, of note,...

Read More »

Don’t Believe Sino-American Thaw or Fed’s Corporate Bond Divestment is a Policy Signal

Overview:  Market participants appear to be biding their time ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report as they digest recent developments.  The dollar is firmer, equities are mixed, and benchmark bond yields are a little firmer.  China and Hong Kong shares continue their recent underperformance, while most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is easing from record highs.  The utility and materials sectors are the largest drags.  US futures are...

Read More »

The Dollar Remains on the Defensive

Overview:  Last week's cyberattack on the largest US gasoline pipeline continues to lift oil and gasoline prices.  The June gasoline futures gapped higher to extend last week's 2.4% gain but has subsequently moved lower to enter the gap.  June WTI is firm and holding above $65. The supply disruption is key, but iron ore prices soared 10% on strong Chinese demand. More broadly, the CRB Index settled last week at six-year highs.  Led by South Korea, Asia Pacific equities markets moved higher,...

Read More »

US and Canadian Employment Reports Ahead of the Weekend

Overview:  Ahead of a report that is expected to show that employment jumped by around a million in the US last month, the dollar remains lower on the week against all the major currencies and all but a handful of emerging market currencies.  The US 10-year yield remains below 1.60%, and alongside British and Australian benchmark rates, has eased this week.  In the Asia Pacific region, most equity markets advanced. Still, despite a stronger than expected composite Caixin PMI and a larger...

Read More »

Another Big Week Ahead

Now that the first estimates of Q1 growth in the US, China, and the EMU, which account for around 70% of the world's economy, have been reported, March's economic data will lose some of its gravitas. Indeed, the April PMIs and some other survey data, including business and investor confidence, and a series of regional Fed's manufacturing surveys have already given a taste for how the second quarter is beginning.   And it is strong.  Outside of the final PMI readings, which for large...

Read More »

Holiday Note: US Jobs Day

Overview:  Most financial centers are closed for the holiday today.  Those markets that were open in the Asia Pacific region, like Japan, China, and South Korea, advanced.  US equity futures are also higher after the S&P 500 reached a new record, and the NASDAQ gapped higher.  The cash market is closed today, but the bond market will have a shortened session.  On the week, the 10-year benchmark yields in the US and Europe are a little softer but jumped 15 bp and 13 bp in Australia and...

Read More »

What to Look at Next Week

The US dollar extended its recent gains even as the yield on the 10-year Treasury pulled back by more than 15 basis points.  The euro, the 7-Up to the dollar's cola, fell to its lowest level since last November and the greenback rose to new highs for the year against most of the major currencies, save sterling and the Canadian dollar.  While recent US data have prompted some scaling back of Q1 GDP forecasts, 5%-6% still likely puts it atop the major economies.  Fed officials' latest...

Read More »