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Tag Archives: Jobless Claims

For The Love Of Unemployment Rates

Here we are again. The labor force. The numbers from the BLS are simply staggering. During September 2021, the government believes it shrank for another month, down by 183,000 when compared to August. This means that the Labor Force Participation rate declined slightly to 61.6%, practically the same level in this key metric going back to June.Last June.These millions, yes, millions (see: below), are being excluded from the official labor force therefore unemployment rate because they admit...

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Turning The LABOR SHORTAGE Up to 11

In Massachusetts, the Federal Reserve’s First District, restaurateurs have struggled mightily to find workers. As part of the central bank’s Beige Book, one contact of the Boston leadership said the industry was “facing the worst labor shortage he has seen in 35 years of experience.” In response to such a major threat, these firms become truly creative to try to entice employee prospects. According to the text of the Fed’s document, it’s not just restaurants, either, as this deficit has...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Dip, If You Can

If you were waiting for a correction in stock prices to put some money to work, you got your chance last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 1000 points at the low Monday and closed down 725, a loss of a little over 2%. The S&P 500 did a little better but closed down 1.5%. It looked like the beginning of a beautiful correction, one for which we were way overdue. The reason everyone gave for the selloff was fear of the Delta variant, of which new cases and...

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Do Rising ‘Global’ Growth Concerns Include An Already *Slowing* US Economy?

Global factors, meaning that the wave of significantly higher deflationary potential (therefore, diminishing inflationary chances which were never good to begin with) in global bond yields the past five months have seemingly focused on troubles brewing outside the US. Overseas turmoil, it was called back in 2015, leaving by default a picture of relative American strength and harmony.The rest of the world’s economic system hasn’t really come back much, and there’s much to suggest we’ve...

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April’s Payroll Jolt, Because Unprecedented Number of Workers Just Quit?

April 2021’s payroll estimate (CES) was the “bad” one; at a revised +278,000 it was “supposed” to have been significantly better than the “good” one for March (+785,000, revised). Near three hundred thousand in any month before 2020 would’ve been celebrated as a near miracle (that’s just how bad the labor market has been for a long time). What made it so worrisome, then, was that already in a deep hole we just can’t afford to take several more years at such a reduced rebound to get out of...

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UST Yields, Reverse Repo, and…Payrolls

February’s cold winter blast throughout the Southern United States was supposed to have been the extent of the weakness. The unusual and unusually severe freeze caused a great deal of havoc, making its way very quickly into economic data. The recovery was said to have been on a winning streak (vaccines, gov’t payments, etc.) so it seemed the easiest correlation more likely the explanation.In terms of the Establishment Survey, or payroll report, this didn’t really happen. The low-point...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Nothing To See Here. No, Really. Nothing.

The answer to the question, “What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time believing that doing nothing is the right response….to anything…or nothing. We are programmed to believe that success comes from doing things, not not doing things. And so, often we look at markets on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis and think something of significance happened and we ought to...

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Can We Reconcile Jobless Claims To Payrolls?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that in the month of March 2021 somewhere around 916,000 payrolls were added back to the economy. I have to disclaim the figure simply because the statistics used to create it aren’t really all that precise; piecing together data from a survey of 145,000 business establishments, a fraction of the economy’s total, the government comes up with a 90% (only 90%) confidence interval that’s a few hundred thousand in breadth.In other words, what the...

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Reopening 2

Last Friday’s March 2021 payroll report exceeded expectations in nearly every category. Analysts were hoping for something like the ADP’s private employment gains (+517k), somewhere in the ballpark of 550,000 to 600,000. Instead, the BLS thinks the whole economy had added between 803,700 and 1,028,300 (90% confidence). This translated into the “headline” of +916,000, of which +780,000 in the private sector (the balance due to government re-hiring). Unquestionably a good month, however...

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One Year Later: Why No ‘V’?

Quick questions: who said the following, and when did this person say this? Our own country has tried one economic theory after another. The present Administration asked for, and received, extraordinary powers upon the assurance that these were to be temporary. Most of its proposals did not follow familiar paths to recovery. We knew they were being undertaken hastily and with little deliberation. The most obvious answer might seem to be any prominent 21st century critic of the Federal...

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