Tag Archive: Italy

FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Pares Losses as Market Partly Corrects Confusion of Magntiude and Timing of Fed

2019-07-19

by

2019-07-19

Overview: Comments underscoring the importance of acting preemptively by two Fed officials sent the dollar reeling and helped lift equities after the S&P fell to a two and a half week low. The decline in rates and the US shooting down of an Iranian drone in the Gulf helped spur gold to new six-year highs. There was some attempt to clarify the (NY Fed's) comments and the dollar has pared yesterday's losses.

Read More »

A truce between Rome and Brussels

2019-07-05

by

2019-07-05

Italy Budgetary Timeline
For now, Italy has avoided Brussels' Excessive Deficit Procedure. But tensions are set to rise again in the autumn when Italy presents its 2020 budget package.In its mid-year budget revision, the Italian government lowered its 2019 deficit target. The government pointed to better-than-expected revenues for this revision, including tax revenues that were EUR3.5bn higher than expected and an additional EUR2.7bn in other revenues (including dividends...

Read More »

FX Daily, July 2: Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality

2019-07-02

by

2019-07-02

Overview: The euphoria that greeted the resumption of US-China and US-North Korea talks has subsided. Global equities have turned mixed after yesterday's surge. Hong Kong played catch-up, and despite ongoing demonstrations, the Hang Seng rallied over one percent, and the Hong Kong Dollar strengthened beyond its band midpoint for the first time in nine months.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 26: Biggest Drop in the S&P 500 in June Weighs on Global Equities

2019-06-26

by

2019-06-26

The S&P 500 fell nearly one percent yesterday, its steepest fall this month and this was a weight on Asia Pacific and European activity. Most markets have eased, though not as much as the US did. Hong Kong, India, and Singapore were notable exceptions in Asia, where the MSCI benchmark slipped for a second day.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 25: Heightened Political Risks Weigh on Sentiment

2019-06-25

by

2019-06-25

Overview: It is far from clear that the US sanctions against nine Iranian officials, with the foreign minister to be added later brings negotiations any closer. At the same time, US officials trying to keep expectations low for the weekend meeting between Trump and Xi. The heightened political anxiety will have to make room for Fed Chairman Powell's talk in NY.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 12: Anxiety Ticks Up, Risks Pared

2019-06-12

by

2019-06-12

Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a five-day advance yesterday and set the heavier tone for equities today.  Continued protests in Hong Kong were not shrugged off as they have been in the last couple of sessions.  The Hang Seng's nearly 1.9% decline was the largest in a month and led the region lower. 

Read More »

FX Daily, May 13: Investors Still Looking for New Balance

2019-05-13

by

2019-05-13

The end of the tariff truce between the US and China has discombobulated investors. They had been repeatedly that a deal was close and there had even been talk at the US Treasury about where Trump and Xi should meet to sign the agreement. Now China was given around a month to capitulate to US demands or face a 25% tariff on their remaining exports to the US.

Read More »

FX Daily, April 29: The Busy Week Begins Slowly

2019-04-29

by

2019-04-29

Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap.  However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week.  Japan's markets are closed all week, while China's markets are closed from mid-week on for an extended holiday.  The week has begun on a decidedly consolidative tone. 

Read More »

FX Daily, April 26: Greenback Consolidates Ahead of Q1 GDP

2019-04-26

by

2019-04-26

Overview:  The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week.  The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day advance with a two-day loss coming into today where it is a little softer. 

Read More »

Europe and China

2019-03-26

by

2019-03-26

The US-China trade talks look like they may very well continue through most of the second quarter, despite how much progress is being claimed.  Meanwhile, the tariffs remain in effect, but the market's sensitivity to developments has slackened since it was clear the Trump and Xi were not going to meet at the end of this month.

Read More »

It’s Not That There Might Be One, It’s That There Might Be Another One

2019-02-01

by

2019-02-01

Lending Europe 1998-2018
It was a tense exchange. When even politicians can sense that there’s trouble brewing, there really is trouble brewing. Typically the last to figure these things out, if parliamentarians are up in arms it already isn’t good, to put it mildly. Well, not quite the last to know, there are always central bankers faithfully pulling up the rear of recognizing disappointing reality.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

2018-12-10

by

2018-12-10

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Unfinished Business

2018-11-19

by

2018-11-19

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but "what we know that just ain't so." Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC's efforts to enforce the agreed-upon budget rules.

Read More »

Harmful Modern Myths And Legends

2018-11-08

by

2018-11-08

Germany Real GDP, Q3 2018
Loreley Rock near Sankt Goarshausen sits at a narrow curve on the Rhine River in Germany. The shape of the bluff produces a faint echo in the wind, supposedly the last whispers of a beautiful maiden who threw herself from it in despair once spurned by her paramour. She was transformed into a siren, legend says, a tantalizing wail which cries out and lures fishermen and tradesmen on the great river to their death.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: What Can Bite You This Week?

2018-10-22

by

2018-10-22

Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates. The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights. Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to New York will continue to have a strong influence on other capital markets.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Has an Inflection Point been Reached for Investors?

2018-10-08

by

2018-10-08

Interest rates, led by the US, have accelerated to the upside. With price pressures generally rising and oil prices at four-year highs, it is understandable. Market participants need to see the breakout that has lifted US 10-year yields to their highest level in seven years is confirmed in subsequent price action.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 01: NAFTA Deal Struck, Softer EMU Mfg PMI, and Firm Greenback Starts Week

2018-10-01

by

2018-10-01

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are extending its pre-weekend gains on news that a new NAFTA deal (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement USMCA) has been struck. Against most of the other major and emerging market currencies, the US dollar is firm. China's mainland and Hong Kong markets are closed for a national holiday.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Next Week’s Drivers

2018-09-24

by

2018-09-24

It is a testament to the Federal Reserves communication and the evolution of investors' understanding that we can say that the rate hike that the central bank will deliver is not as important as what it says. A rate hike is a foregone conclusion. According to the CME's model, there is about an 85% chance of December hike discounted as well.

Read More »

Italian material deprivation rates still the worst among large euro area economies

2018-09-22

by

2018-09-22

Latest poverty figures provide government with an argument for fiscal stumulus.Severe material deprivation rates gauge the proportion of people whose living conditions are severely affected by a lack of resources. According to Eurostat, “it represents the proportion of people living in households that cannot afford at least four of the following nine items: mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, hire purchase instalments or other loan payments;...

Read More »