Tag Archive: Italy

BOJ Doesn’t Surprise, but EMU does with October CPI and Q3 Growth

2022-10-28

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2022-10-28

Bonds and stocks are being sold ahead of the weekend.  Poor corporate earnings and higher inflation in Japan and Europe are weighing on sentiment.  The dollar is mostly higher. Hong Kong and mainland China led large Asia Pacific markets lower.  India and Singapore were notable exceptions.

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Dollar Slumps, Yuan Rallies by Most this Year amid Intervention Talk

2022-10-26

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2022-10-26

Overview: The US dollar is having one of toughest days of the year. It has been sold across the board and taken out key levels like parity in the euro, $1.15 in sterling, and CAD1.36. The Chinese yuan surged over 1%. Chinese officials promised healthy bond and stock markets.

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Can We Look Past US CPI ?

2022-10-13

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2022-10-13

Overview: There seems to be a nervous calm today ahead of the US CPI. The dollar is hovering near JPY147 but the risk of BOJ intervention in the North American session seems slim. The BOE’s emergency Gilt buying operation ends tomorrow and UK bonds yields have tumbled. While equities in the Asia Pacific region lost ground, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a six-day decline.

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No Rest for the Weary: The Week Ahead

2022-10-08

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2022-10-08

In Volcker's days, when he used money supply to justify tightening monetary policy despite high unemployment, the money supply was released while markets were open, and it was The report. Later, by the mid-1980s, leading up to the Plaza Agreement, the deterioration of the US monthly trade balance was critical.

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Semblance of Calm Returns

2022-09-27

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2022-09-27

(Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.)Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer, as are UK Gilts.

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Sterling Continues to be Pounded

2022-09-26

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2022-09-26

Overview: Sterling’s pounding continued in Asia where it was driven to $1.0350, a new record low before stabilizing. UK rates also continued to rise sharply after the new government promised more tax cuts next year. The right-wing victory in Italy was not surprising but it kept pressure on Italian bonds.

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The Greenback Firms to Start the New Week, Stocks Slide

2022-09-19

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2022-09-19

Overview:  The busy week is off to a slow start as Japan is on holiday and the UK and Canadian markets are closed to honor Queen (Australia will commemorate with a holiday on Thursday). Nevertheless, the sell-off in equities continues and the US dollar is firm. Most of the large markets in Asia fell. India is a notable exception. Its benchmark rose for the first time in four sessions, helped by bank shares and Infosys. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for...

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New Recession Worry Stalls Dollar Express but Doesn’t Derail It

2022-08-24

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2022-08-24

A simply dreadful flash US PMI stopped the dollar's four-day rally in its tracks. It followed news that the eurozone, Japan, and Australia's composite PMIs are below the 50 boom/bust level. However, the dollar recovered, even if not fully as the market seemed unconvinced that the data could change Fed Chair Powell's message at Jackson Hole on Friday. A consolidative tone is evident today. Asia Pacific equities were mixed.

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The Dollar is on Fire

2022-08-19

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2022-08-19

The dollar is on fire. It is rising against all the major currencies and cutting through key technical levels like a hot knife in butter. The Canadian dollar is the strongest of the majors this week, which often outperforms on the crosses in a strong US dollar environment. It is off 1.5% this week.

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Is it All Really about Today’s US CPI Print?

2022-08-10

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2022-08-10

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias ahead of the July CPI report. The intraday momentum indicators are overextended, and this could set the stage for the dollar to recover in North America.

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Dog Days

2022-08-08

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2022-08-08

The dog days of August for the Northern Hemisphere are here and the capital markets are relatively subdued. Equities are firmer. The notable exceptions in Asia was China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has advanced for the last three weeks.

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Aussie Hit with Profit-Taking after RBA Hikes 50 bp

2022-08-02

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2022-08-02

Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has added to the risk-off mood of the capital markets today. Most of the large Asia Pacific equities sold off, with Australia and India being notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session, and by the most (~0.60%) since mid-July. US futures are also weaker. Benchmark 10-year rates are lower.

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Attention Turns to US GDP, Ahead of Tomorrow’s EMU GDP and CPI

2022-07-28

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2022-07-28

Overview: The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 75 bp rate hike, and Chair Powell left the door open for another large hike at the next meeting in September. Yet, the market took away a dovish message and the dollar suffered, rates slipped, and equities rallied.

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Fed Day

2022-07-27

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2022-07-27

Overview: Better US news from the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments has helped lift sentiment today and is encouraging a more risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting. News that US President Biden and China’s Xi will talk tomorrow for the second time this year may be notable but does not appear to be impactful in the capital markets.

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Italian Politics Complicate the ECB’s Task

2022-07-21

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2022-07-21

The appetite for risk seen earlier this week is fading. Yesterday’s US equity gains helped lift most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region, but China’s CSI 300 fell 1.1%, giving back most of this week’s gains as credit issues from the property sector haunt sentiment.

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Calm before the Storm?

2022-07-20

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2022-07-20

The biggest rally in the S&P 500 in three weeks helped lift global equities today. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose for the third consecutive session, the longest streak this month. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up for a fourth day and is at its best level since mid-June.

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The Dollar is on its Back Foot

2022-07-19

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2022-07-19

The dollar’s downside correction continues today, helped by hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and unnamed sources who have played up the chances of a 50 bp hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday.

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Market Prices in More Aggressive Fed AND is more Confident of Rate Cuts by the End 2023

2022-07-14

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2022-07-14

Overview: The higher-than-expected US CPI and the strong expectation of a 100 bp hike by the Fed in two weeks is propelling the dollar higher.

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FX Daily, January 26: Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Meet as Risk Appetites Stabilize

2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

After a slow and mixed start in Asia, where Australia and India are on holiday, equity markets have turned higher.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is up around 1.9% near midday in Europe, which if sustained would be the biggest gain of the year.  US futures are snapping backing too, with the S&P 500 popping more than  1% and NASDAQ by 2%. 

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How the Market Responds to US CPI may set the Near-Term Course

2022-01-12

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2022-01-12

Overview:  US stocks built on the recovery started on Monday and Powell's suggestion of letting the balance sheet shrink later this year eased some speculation of a fourth hike this year, which seemed to allow the Treasury market to stabilize. 

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