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Tag Archives: Italy

European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

It’s just Germany. It’s just industry. The excuses pile up as long as the downturn. Over across the Atlantic the situation has only now become truly serious. The European part of this globally synchronized downturn is already two years long and just recently is it becoming too much for the catcalls to ignore. Central bankers are trying their best to, obviously, but the numbers just aren’t stacking up their way. We’ve seen all this before, repeatedly. Part of the denial is about the nature of...

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As the Data Comes In, 2019 Really Did End Badly

The coronavirus began during December, but in its early stages no one knew a thing about it. It wasn’t until January 1 that health authorities in China closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after initially determining some wild animals sold there might have been the source of a pneumonia-like outbreak. On January 5, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a statement saying it wasn’t SARS or MERS, and that the spreading disease would be probed. In other words, you can’t blame...

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Sterling Continues to Unwind Election Gains

Overview:  In light volume, equities are trading with a heavier bias, bonds are mostly firm, and the dollar is softer against the major currencies.  China's equities standout with the Shanghai Composite falling over 1%.  South Korea, Australia, and Indian markets eased, but most of the smaller bourses gained. Japanese benchmarks were mixed.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is slightly lower, led by losses in financials and utilities.  US shares are little changed.  Benchmark 10-year yields...

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A Time Recession

Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means anything in this day and age. I don’t think it does, and that’s a big part of why there’s so much confusion...

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Politics Dominate Start of the Week before Yielding to Policy and Economics

Overview: The pre-weekend rally in US shares, with the S&P 500 flirting with record highs and the back-up in US yields, set the tone for Asia Pacific trading earlier today. Nearly all the equity markets advanced, and bond yields rose. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 took a five-day advancing streak into this week, but shares are struggling to sustain the upside momentum. US stocks are trading a little firmer in Europe. Benchmark yields have continued to rise, and the US 10-year yield...

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Talking and Fighting in the Week Ahead

Equity markets and the US dollar closed last week and August on a firm note.  Ahead of the weekend, the dollar rose to new highs for the year against the euro, Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and the New Zealand dollar.  While the next set of US and Chinese tariffs start September 1, the market is making the most of the lull. At the same time, US and Chinese officials probe each other to see if sufficient disruption has been felt to force concessions.  Talking and fighting are not...

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Johnson Faces Legal Challenges and Conte may be Given an Extension

Overview:  The capital markets are calm today, though there does seem to be some optimism creeping back into the market.  The Chinese yuan strengthened, snapping a ten-day slide and Italian bank shares index has risen by more than 1% for the fourth consecutive session.  The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc are softer.  In fact, the dollar is rising against the Swiss franc for the fourth straight session, which if sustained, would be the longest streak in several months.  Asia Pacific...

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Realism Fights Back After Hope Dominated Yesterday

Overview:  Hope triumphed over realism yesterday, and realism is fighting back toward.  Asia Pacific markets, however, traded on the echo from the recovery in North America on Monday.  The MSCI Asia Pacific recouped part of yesterday's drop, led by Chinese markets.  Hong Kong was the main exception.  The enthusiasm faded by the European morning and the Dow Jones Stoxx is threating a fourth consecutive losing session, dragged down by communication, consumer staples, and health care...

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Market has Second Thoughts on Magnitude of Fed Cuts Ahead of Powell

Overview:  Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend.  Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide.  European bourses are edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is poised to end its three-week air pocket.  US shares are higher in European trading and barring a reversal in the North American session, the S&P 500 will finish...

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European Stocks Snap Back, Market Hopeful Italian Election can be Delayed

Outlook:  The end of the US equity three-day advance yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific shares today.  Most benchmarks fell.  Better than expected trade data helped Thailand buck the trend.  A firmer tone emerged in the European morning, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has recouped yesterday's losses and more.  It was led higher by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials.  US shares are also trading firmer today, and the S&P 500 is also retracing a good part of yesterday's 0.8%...

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