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Tag Archives: Irish economy

5/6/21: Ireland PMIs for May: Booming Growth and Inflation Signals

 Both inflationary pressures and economic activity indicators are going through the roof in May, signaling a roaring run for 2Q 2021 growth. Manufacturing PMI for Ireland is up at 64.1 in May, compared to 60.8 in April. This is a historical high for the series, for the second month in a row.Services PMI for Ireland moved up from April's 57.7 to May reading of 62.1. This marks third consecutive month of above 50 readings, with all of these being statistically above 50.0 line. Construction...

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10/5/21: Ireland PMIs for April: Rapid Growth and Inflation Signals

Ireland's PMIs have accelerated across all two key sectors of Services and Manufacturing in April, while Construction Sector continued to post declining activity (through mid-April).Irish Manufacturing PMI rose from 57.1 in March to 60.8 in April as larger multinationals boosted their activities and increased pass-through for inflation. This marks third consecutive month of increasing PMIs for the sector. Meanwhile, Irish Services PMI rose from 54.6 in March to 57.7 in April, marking second...

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7/4/21: Ireland PMIs for March: Growth and Inflation Pressures

Ireland PMIs for 1Q 2021 are out this week, so let's take a closer look at monthly activity data. March services PMI came in at a surprising 54.6 - up on 41.2 in February and 36.2 in January. Given the country is in a phase 5 lockdown, and there has been little change on that in recent months, the new reading is a bizarre one. Per Markit: "Three out of four monitored sub-sectors registered higher business activity in March. The strongest rate of expansion was in Financial Services, followed...

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12/10/20: Ireland PMIs and Economic Activity Dynamics for September

September data on Irish Purchasing Managers Indices is now complete (with Construction sector reporting last), and the signals coming from the data are not pretty:Services sector activity is back in contraction: September reading of 45.8 shows relatively sharp downward momentum, swinging 6.6 points on August reading. September reading is statistically below 50.0 zero growth line, and below historical mean (55.0).Manufacturing sector reading is at stagnation 50.0 in September, down from 52.3...

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2/10/20: A new mortgage arrears crisis on its way

My latest article on Irish banking sector problems with distressed mortgages is out today in The Currency: There’s a new mortgage arrears crisis on its way, and official Ireland is not ready for itThe Central Bank of Ireland has started publishing new data on mortgage arrears – and the news is not good. An arrears crisis is brewing. The banks, and the state, are woefully unprepared for...

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9/8/20: Ireland PMIs and Economic Activity Dynamics for August

Ireland's PMIs are signalling a cautious recovery in the growth dynamics across three sectors, with growth still underperforming historical averages.Irish Services Sector PMI rose to a respectable 52.4 in August from 51.9 in July, with the latest index reading sitting 38.5 points above April 2020 COVID-19 pandemic lows. However, statistically, the index remains below historical average of 55.0 and the median of 56.8. In other words, second month post-contraction phase of the pandemic, Irish...

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1/8/20: Ireland: Agricultural Subsidies and Production

CSO published final data for 2019 'value added' in agriculture. As always, a fun read from the perspective of which constituency in a 'market economy' loves Big State. You've guessed, it Agri business. And no, I can't claim it is farmers, for they get the minority stake in the largesses that are European Common Agricultural Policy subsidies.Here is a chart:In 2019, Irish agricultural sector gross output at producer prices was EUR 7,960.9 million. Based on estimated GNI*, this means that the...

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6/7/2020: Irish Services Sector Activity Index: May 2020

COVID19 impact on services sectors activity in Ireland, data through May 2020: Huge adverse impact on the economy. Note precautionary purchasing effect on Retail sales in the difference between Wholesale & Retail index and Wholesale sub-index. And some recovery in May, compared to 1Q 2020. But overall, conditions are still dire. And we are not yet seeing the effects of consumer behavior changes on post-restrictions demand. That is still coming...Forward industry view (ex-behavioral...

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25/5/20: Irish Employment: COVID19 Effects

Irish data on employment and labour force reported by CSO now comes in two streams: one is COVID pandemic-ignoring, and one accounting for potential effects of the pandemic. Here is the latest release snapshot, covering 1Q 2020: Not to challenge CSO on their methodology that is based on a cautious interpretation of the COVID19-related new unemployment assistance claims as not being fully reflective of traditional unemployment. However, it is worth doing a simple exercise: taking data...

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