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Home / Tag Archives: Investor Sentiment

Tag Archives: Investor Sentiment

Trying To Be Consistently “Not Stupid”

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” – Charlie Munger As described in a recent article, Has This Cycle Reached Its Tail, an appreciation for where the economy is within the cycle of economic expansion and contraction is quite important for investors. It offers a gauge, a guidepost of sorts, to know when to take a lot of risk and when to take a conservative approach....

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Has This Cycle Reached Its Tail?

We asked a few friends what the picture below looks like, and most told us they saw a badly drawn bird with a wide open beak. Based on the photograph below our colorful bird, they might be on to something.  As you might suspect, this article is not about our ability to graph a bird using Excel. The graph represents the current bull market and economic cycle as told by the yield curve and investor sentiment. As the picture is almost complete, the bird provides a clue to where...

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Six Ways US Stocks Are The Most Overvalued In History

Submitted by Mish Shedlock US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history. Let's investigate six ways. Crescat Capital claims US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior speculative mania market peaks in 1929 and 2000. Their 25-page presentation makes a compelling case, with numerous charts. It's worth your time to download and investigate the report. Six Ways Socks Most Overvalued in History Price to Sales Price to Book...

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This Is What Wall Street Is Buying Right Now

Weekly Notes With Tiho — Issue 18Location: Skopje, MacedoniaWarren Buffett once said that “Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.”I promise that this won’t be another negative article putting Wall Street into the spotlight for all the wrong things they do (and get away with).This blog is about investing and making money.Buffett’s quote, therefore, is great wisdom for independent thinkers and contrarian investors amongst...

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Goldman’s Clients Are Confused About Inflation: Here’s Why

In his latest weekly kickstart, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin (who has maintained his year end S&P price target of 2,400 of -3% from current levels), says that the one topic most confusing (and important) to Goldman's clients in the past week, was what happens to inflation next: "the US inflation outlook and its equity investment implications were key topics of discussion during recent visits with clients in Boston, Chicago, and New York. Core Personal...

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What’ll Happen to US Commercial Real Estate as Chinese Money Dries Up?

In the second quarter in Manhattan, Chinese entities accounted for half of the commercial real estate purchases with prices over $10 million. By comparison, in 2011 through 2014, total cross-border purchases from all over the world (not just from China) were in the mid-20% range. “At a time when domestic investors have pulled back, foreign parties have ramped up their holdings in Manhattan,” according to Avison Young’s Second Quarter Manhattan Market Report. This includes the $2.2...

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CME Stays Silent on Cause of COMEX Silver Flash Crash

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com Silver futures prices on the COMEX futures trading platform briefly plummeted at approximately 7:06am Singapore time yesterday, with the price for the front month (most active) September silver contract falling from a US$16.06 quote down to a low of US$14.34 all within  a 1 minute interval. The futures price then recovered nearly all of its losses in the subsequent 2-3 minute period. High to low, this COMEX silver futures contract saw its...

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Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink

Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Automatic Earth blog, David Stockman routinely refers to President Trump as the ‘Great Disrupter’. But this is not a bad quality, he insists. Rather, it is a necessary one: Stockman argues (my paraphrasing) that Trump represents the outside force, the externality, that tips a ‘world system’ over the brink: It has to tip over the brink, because systems become too ossified, too far out on their ‘branch’ to be able to reform...

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Stockman: Orange Is The New Black (Swan)

Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning, Black swans are supposedly unexpected, stealthy and come of a sudden. But not this one — it is bright orange, and in your face day and night. I refer to the Donald, of course, and the fact that he is truly the Great Disrupter. He is not only impetuous, mercurial, undisciplined and unpredictable. But for reasons I will elaborate below, totally clueless about how to manage his presidency or cope with the circling long knives of the Deep...

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Doug Kass: Not Even The Algo Creators Know What Is Going On

Authored by Seabreeze Partners Management's Doug Kass, If you haven't read my opening missive, please do, as it's important. This column extends the conversation about the problem with advanced market technologies and strategies a step further than most retail and institutional investors understand. Most people think of artificial intelligence and algos as simply executing logical rules programmed into them by humans -- the same rules that the programming humans would follow...

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