Saturday , August 17 2019
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Tag Archives: investment

Risk Happens Fast. Is The Selling Over? 08-09-19

Risk Happens Fast Is The Selling Over? Risk Happens Slowly, Too. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Risk Happens Fast Over the last few weeks, we’ve been discussing the potential for a correction due to the extreme extension of the market above the 200-dma. To wit: “In the very short-term, the market is grossly extended and in need of some correction action to return the market to a more normal state. As...

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Fed Rate Cut – Too Little, Too Late, As Trump Hikes Tariffs 08-02-19

Review & Market Update Risk Is Now Elevated Low Yields Don’t Support Higher Valuations Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update I am on vacation this week, but there is so much going on I couldn’t miss penning a few quick views. I have also solicited some help from some friends.  First, let’s review where we are from last week.  “While the market is rallying in anticipation of...

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Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard 07-26-19

Review & Market Update Whistling Past The $70 Trillion Debt Graveyard The Real Crisis Is Coming Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we discussed the setup for a near-term mean reversion because of the massive extension above the long-term mean. To wit: “There is also just the simple issue that markets are very extended above their long-term trends, as shown in...

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Why The Fed Could Cut By 50bps & Why It Won’t Matter 07-19-19

Review & Market Update Why The Fed Could Cut By 50bps Why It Won’t Matter Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out the bull and bear case for the market: The Bull Case For 3300 Momentum Stock Buybacks Fed Rate Cuts Stoppage of QT Trade Deal The Bear Case Against 3300 Earnings Deterioration Recession No Trade Deal/Higher Tariffs Credit-Related Event (Junk...

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13/7/19: Mapping the declines in jobs creation

Increasing market power concentration, falling entrepreneurship, rising concentration amongst the start ups, unicorns and billions in investment, the markets have been rewarding larger companies at the expense of the smaller and medium enterprises for years. And this has had a problematic impact on human capital and jobs creation.Here is the data on the levels of employment in medium-large companies over the years, based on the U.S. markets data: In simple terms, per each dollar of...

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S&P 3300 – The Bull Vs. Bear Case 07-13-19

Review & Market Update The Case For 3300 Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update We had suggested last week to our PRO SUBSCRIBERS (Get a 30-day FREE Trial)  Last week, we suggested the current setup, “suggests a bit more rally could occur next week.” That remains the case this week. We may be at the limits of that rally for now, but given that last week was an extremely light...

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OPEC is playing into Thunberg’s hands on climate change

OPEC would be wise to avoid picking a fight with Greta Thunberg. The 16-year-old poster child of the Extinction Rebellion movement wants to bring the fossil fuel era to an abrupt end, regardless of the economic risks. Branding her populist methods an enemy could make big oil an easier target for protesters to aim at. That is exactly the mistake OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo has made. The head of the oil cartel – which pumps just under a third of the world’s crude – was quoted...

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7/7/19: Investment for growth is at record lows for S&P500

Interesting chart via @DavidSchawel showing changes over time in corporate (S&P500 companies) distribution of earnings: In simple terms:Much discussed shares buybacks are still the rage: running at 31% of all cash distributions, second highest level after 34% in 2007. On a cumulated basis, and taking into the account already reduced free float in S&P 500 over the years, this is a massive level of buybacks. 'Investment for growth' - as defined - is at 51% - the lowest on record....

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Quick Takes: Some Things I Am Thinking About 07-05-19

Quick Takes Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Quick Takes Market While the market rallied last week and continues to flirt with all-time highs, not surprisingly, volume was exceedingly light because of the July 4th holiday on Thursday. As Carl Swenlin noted: ” SPY has formed a bearish rising wedge, and the VIX penetrated the upper Bollinger Band, which is short-term bearish. The wedge looks particularly weak...

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2/7/19: Factset: Negative EPS guidance hits the highest 2Q level since 2Q 2006

Bad news for the 'fundamentals are sound' crowd when it comes to justifying stock markets exuberance: based on data from Factset, to-date, the number of companies reporting negative earnings per share (EPS) guidance in 2Q 2019 has reached 87 - the highest number after 1Q 2016, and the highest number for any 2Q period since 2006. Total number of reporting companies to-date is 113, which means that so far in the reporting season, a whooping 77% of reporting companies are guiding negative...

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