Monday , June 17 2019
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Tag Archives: Investing

Bear Markets: Understand Them, Don’t Fear Them 06-14-19

Is The Sellable Rally Done? Some Comments On The Fed Cutting Rates Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha Wednesday, June 26th from 12:30-1:30 pm. Review & Update This week I want to step back and talk about some misconceptions with concerning markets, cycles, and investing. However, before we get to that, let me give you a quick review and update on where we are following the “sellable rally,” we have...

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Why Ray Dalio Is Wrong On Capitalism

Ray Dalio is the thoughtful, somewhat controversial founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975. While much of his writing is private, I (and many others) peruse every word we can of his and the Bridgewater team’s thinking. I find it to be some of the most interesting market commentary I read. Lately, Ray has been far more open with his thinking, posting books and essays. He posted on LinkedIn rather controversial stories: Why and How Capitalism...

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One Trick Pony: The Fed Is Pushing On A String

Last week, I discussed the Fed’s recent comments suggesting they might be closer to cutting rates and restarting “QE” than not. “In short, the proximity of interest rates to the ELB (Effective Lower Bound) has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time, tainting all manner of issues with ELB risk and imbuing many old challenges with greater significance.   “Perhaps it is time to retire the term ‘unconventional’ when referring to tools that were used in the crisis. We...

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Here Are The Recession Warning Signs To Watch

Last week, I wrote a detailed piece in which I explained that U.S. recession risk was rising quite rapidly and that the coming recession is likely to be far more severe than most economists expect because there are so many dangerous new bubbles inflating currently and because the global debt burden is much worse today than it was before the Great Recession. In the current piece, I will show more warning signs of the coming recession as well as discuss reliable recession indicators to keep an...

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Who Is Funding Uncle Sam?

In, The Lowest Common Denominator, we quantified the extent to which growth of consumer, corporate, and government debt has greatly outstripped economic growth and our collective income. This dynamic has made the servicing of the debt and the ultimate pay back increasingly more reliant on more debt issuance. Fortunately, taking on more debt for spending/consumption and to service older debt has not been a problem. Over the past twenty years there have been willing lenders (savers) to...

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“Green New Deal” What It Means For Investors

The Green New Deal (GND) is a plan to drastically change the American economy and improve social conditions for its people. It was put forth in March by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) but stalled in Congress after a Senate defeat. However, the GND still is a topic of wide debate and already has spawned various copycat proposals – and its underlying movement still will have a significant effect on the economy and investors going forward. Modeled after FDR’s...

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Technically Speaking: The “Sellable Rally” Chart Review

Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a “sellable rally” following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit: “This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term ‘sellable’ rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets only need some mildly positive news at this point to spur a ‘short-covering’ rally. I would encourage you to use it to reduce risk, rebalance holdings, and raise cash until the ‘trade war smoke’ clears. The market...

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Is The “Sellable Rally” Done? 06-07-19

Is The Sellable Rally Done? Some Comments On The Fed Cutting Rates Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud,Seeking Alpha Are YOU: Age 60 and over. • Concerned about retirement health care expenses. •Recently retired, or planning to retire soon. • Wanting to understand how to begin making important Medicare decisions.  Then this “Lunch & Learn” is for you. Class size is very limited so register now Is The Sellable Rally...

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Why You Should Not Underestimate The Severity Of The Coming Recession

The financial world has been buzzing nervously about the rapidly rising risk of a recession as warning signs mount. Though many mainstream economists and commentators are finally starting to concede that a recession in the next year or two is likely, almost all of them downplay the likely severity of the coming recession by saying “but it will be short-lived!” and “we’re due for a healthy slowdown after a ten year expansion!” (economists were saying the same thing in 2006 and 2007 too). My...

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Passive Proliferation – A Snake Eating Its Own Tail

Passive funds have come a long, long way from their humble beginnings. Having started as small and scrappy and distinctly out-of-consensus investment options, they have grown impressively over the last ten years and now are often considered the defaults for many investing activities. As passives have grown, however, an important dynamic has changed. When passive funds comprised only a small part of the total market, it didn’t matter much that they allocated capital according to criteria that...

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