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Tag Archives: Initial Jobless Claims

On Final Day Of Extremely Volatile Quarter, Futures Trade Modestly Lower

On the last day of an extremely volatile first quarter, following the latest torrid push higher in risk assets over the past two days following Yellen's dovish Tuesday comments, today has seen a modest pull back in risk, whether because the market is massively overbought, because someone finally looked at what record multiple expansion that has taken place in Q1 as earnings are set to collapse by nearly 10%, or simply due to fears that tomorrow's payrolls number will show an abnormal amount...

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Goldman Demolishes Jobless Claims Hype: “This Does Not Signal A Booming Labor Market”

As we pointed out previously, the growing convergence between BLS-reported initial jobless claims (at 42 year lows) and reported job cuts (highest since 2009) suggests someone is lying. It appears we have found the cuplrit as Goldman Sachs confirms that changes in gross labor market flows (e.g. gross hires and quits), as well as changes in the unemployment insurance benefit take up rate, affect the relationship between jobless claims and employment growth over the cycle. For this reason,...

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