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Tag Archives: Individual Investors

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Letter from Mr. Market!

We have a big week for data and only four days to digest it. Retail sales and housing data will be most important. Industrial production will provide evidence about the strength of the recovery. Some of the punditry will get lost in the data while others continue the fruitless effort to reconcile market prices with economic fundamentals. (Schwab, Paul Schatz). I normally join in these efforts, but something special happened last week. My key questions have been answered by: A letter from Mr....

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Does the Reddit Rebellion Threaten Investor Portfolios?

We have a big week for data, including both ISM reports and a focus on employment. Investors thirst for more data about the strength of the economic rebound. We are also in the heart of earnings season, worried about vaccines, and wondering if Washington will provide more help. Despite this jam-packed agenda the financial media highlight a story that is much more fun. Someday our focus can return to data and earnings. For now, many are worried, asking: How will the Reddit Rebellion affect my...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the State of the Recovery?

We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on sentiment and inflation data. Economic reports remain secondary to Mr. Market. It has been a lights on, lights off situation with celebration of pandemic news and improvements in the Washington situation. We know much more than we did a month ago. It might not be a clear crystal ball, but it should be easier to identify key risks. It is time for investors to ask: What is the state of the economic recovery? In my last installment of WTWA,...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Payroll Employment Report Accurate?

It is a big week for economic data. There are many reports with the most attention on Friday’s Employment Situation data.  We will also get auto sales, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, construction spending, and factory orders. Weekly jobless claims continue to attract great interest and should.  The corporate earnings story hits a peak for the season. Many have been reassured by the job growth in the payroll employment report.  It is viewed as the most important by...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Worry about the 200-day Moving Average?

We have a normal economic calendar, and 1/3 of S&P 500 companies have not yet reported Q418 earnings. Corporate earnings are not confirming those who thought the market was signaling a recession. Both the economy and earnings remain in the background. Daily market moves, even small ones, and the often-erroneous explanations dominate the financial news. The market story has become the battle of the 200-day moving average. I consulted Mrs. OldProf about today’s theme. I asked which was...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Market Storm Averted?

We have another normal economic calendar. The election is behind us. The Fed decision is behind us. What next? Some of the punditry convened after Wednesday’s rally to say that it was time to get “back to reality.” Others are wondering about a year-end rally. Since everyone keys off what happened the day before (!!) the preponderance of commentary might go either way. In either case, I expect pundits, to look back at recent volatility, technical support levels, and headline risk. They will be...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Market Storm Averted?

We have another normal economic calendar. The election is behind us. The Fed decision is behind us. What next? Some of the punditry convened after Wednesday’s rally to say that it was time to get “back to reality.” Others are wondering about a year-end rally. Since everyone keys off what happened the day before (!!) the preponderance of commentary might go either way. In either case, I expect pundits, to look back at recent volatility, technical support levels, and headline risk. They will be...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What do the Mid-Term Elections Mean for Financial Markets?

We have a huge economic calendar. While employment data will get most of the attention, there are also important reports on ISM manufacturing, personal income, PCE prices, consumer confidence and auto sales. Earnings season continues with another big week of reports. In normal times these topics would provide plenty to think about. Nowadays, none of this seems important. If the stock decline continues at the start of the week, that will take center stage. We’ll probably get another “crisis”...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Major Market Misperceptions

We have a light economic calendar with a focus on housing. Earnings season would normally be the most important market theme. For now, observers are seeing what they want to see in earnings reports. That makes it easier for pundits to take up a favorite topic: What is about to go wrong? There are so many candidates that picking one as a theme would be a pure guess – even more than usual. Sticking with my promise to focus on the most important questions, regardless of pundit preferences, I am...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Quit Fighting the Last War

There is a normal economic calendar featuring four different housing reports. With little interest in recent economic or earnings news, the punditry has been interested in history. For many it is another opportunity to sell fear. The pundits might not change focus, but investors should have a resolution: Quit fighting the last war! Today’s WTWA will touch on a (mostly) overlooked element of the financial crisis. The Final Thought will emphasize what we all should be thinking about. In my...

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