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Tag Archives: IHS Markit

A Day Later, No Takers Anywhere

I see it as reality intruding. The myth of the Fed continues to linger in the popular media, the mainstream press will dutiful parrot the idea that rate cuts and an end to QT are “highly accommodative.” The FOMC told them yesterday what to write and say: These changes in the anticipated path of interest rates have eased financial conditions and have supported the economy. For about half an hour yesterday, that’s how it looked. Yields jumped somewhat and eurodollar futures prices dropped more....

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Germany Struggles On

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike. The aftermath of that crisis, particularly the second eruption in 2011, posed an economic challenge. Lack of recovery...

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US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view somewhat. A few billion in tariffs, even if we include what is to this point only proposed, that’s just not enough to create these more...

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Japan’s Bellwether On Nasty #4

One reason why Japanese bond yields are approaching records like their German counterparts is the global economy indicated in Japan’s economic accounts. As in Germany, Japan is an outward facing system. It relies on the concept of global growth for marginal changes. Therefore, if the global economy is coming up short, we’d see it in Japan first and maybe best. I wrote in April last year how Japanese Industrial Production was a true bellwether: The positives are far fewer than the negatives....

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Behind The Blame Game, A Nastier #4

After what is all but certain to be the final “rate hike” in this cycle, Bloomberg reported that President Trump had previously explored all possible legal ramifications of demoting Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. The issue has become a major one, in the media, anyway, now that Mr. Powell has indicated his error. There will be no further hikes this year, rate cuts now pretty much a done deal from here. Given the situation, it’s at least understandable how no one is in much of a...

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How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the immediate inversion couldn’t answer. All the curve said at that point was a serious chance Jay Powell was going to be forced into an involuntarily U-turn at some indeterminate...

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PMI Plunge and Further Curve Distortion, A Steady Diet of Sour From Here On

Scarcely a day goes by without a flood of new articles in the financial media expressing shock and disbelief over Treasury yields. It’s not just that they are wrong, these say, it’s that they have to be wrong. What they are implying just isn’t compatible with the what “everyone” is expected to believe. Consumer sentiment is still high as are stocks (maybe a relationship?) Central bankers are still forecasting a second half rebound. Officials have even gone so far as to claim financial...

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PMI Eruption

As noted yesterday, what’s typically behind these hopes about “green shoots” is a central bank, more often than not more than one central bank. In 2019, the Fed’s pause isn’t the only supposed dovish turn. The ECB is back at it, having canceled its rate liftoff. And the PBOC is doing things that nobody ever cares that much to truly understand. Maybe it takes time for all that to work its way into the economic mix. Economists feel monetary policies come with a lag, which is why central...

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Downturn Is Everywhere

Europe is a total mess, no one can (honestly) argue otherwise. But that’s just Germany and France, right? PMI’s in those countries were a disaster. Those reported for the US weren’t really all that bad. Weaker, sure, hardly the obvious sinking especially when compared to German manufacturers. IHS Markit’s flash US Manufacturing Index for March 2019 was 52.5. This was the lowest in 21 months, so some concern. Still, it was miles away from Germany’s 44.7. The US composite remains better than...

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Downturn Is Here

Confirmation that it wasn’t a shallow Rhine and emissions regulations. Something big is going on in Europe, Germany first. And if the German economy stumbles, particularly its industrial and manufacturing sector, we can reasonably infer its cause – the entire global economy is suffering. As is standard practice, when weak data began showing up last year it was attributed to anything, everything else. Europe was downright booming, they said, so there was no possible way for a macro negative...

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