Friday , December 6 2019
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Tag Archives: Growth

China Is Now The World’s Largest Official Creditor

Hard to believe the transformation of China over the past forty years. Just before Deng Xiaoping led a large Chinese delegation in 1974 to a special session of the United Nations,  the story goes, the government made a frantic search through all the banks in Beijing to find the money (hard currency) to pay for the trip.  They could scrape together only US$38,000.   This was the first time the leader of the People’s Republic of China would visit America and he couldn’t even afford to...

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18/6/19: In May, 12 month forward probability of a U.S. recession has jumped up

The NY Fed estimated risk of recession (12 months forward) has hit another business cycle high of 29.62% for May 2020, up from 27.49% for April 2020, marking seventh consecutive monthly increase.Historically, probability of a recession 9-15mo ahead of the actual recession realisation has been at 18.45%, which is significantly below the current running 3 months average of 28.06%.To put these levels into perspective, here is the chart of the time series: The current levels of the index are...

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Q1 2019 GDP = “Stranger Things”

It is always prudent to look under the hood after a big unexpected beat or miss on a major headline economic number. Never so relevant than Friday’s GDP report, which blew out expectations, and appears right out of Stranger Things.   The 3.2 print was light years away from the beginning of the year panic when many thought the economy was falling off the cliff.   Declining markets almost always cause traders and investors to “retrofit their perception of the  fundamentals” to the price...

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3/1/19: Happy New 2019 or 2018 or 2008…

Happy New Old Year 2019... oh, wait... As @lisaabramowicz1 notes: "The gap between 3-month T-bill and 10-year Treasury yields has collapsed in the past few weeks and is now at a new post-crisis low." Or, put differently, the short run is the long run and vice versa. Which means that market expectations for longer term funding costs are now on par with markets assessment of the present, and the long term risk premium has been drawn to near zero. It also means that investors no longer view...

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Exclusive Interview: Peter Boockvar

Last week, I visited with Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and Editor of The Boock Report. He previously was the Chief Market Analyst for The Lindsey Group, a macro economic and market research firm started by Larry Lindsey. Prior to this, Peter spent a brief time at Omega Advisors, a New York-based hedge fund, as a macro analyst and portfolio manager. Before this, he was an employee and partner at Miller Tabak + Co for 18 years where he was recently the...

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Exclusive Interview: Chris Martenson

I recently spent some time with Chris Martenson from Peak Prosperity about the market, the economy, and the “Great Reset” which is approaching. Chris Martenson, PhD (Duke), MBA (Cornell) is an economic researcher and futurist specializing in energy and resource depletion, and co-founder of PeakProsperity.com (along with Adam Taggart). As one of the early econobloggers who forecasted the housing market collapse and stock market correction years in advance, Chris rose to prominence with the...

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Exclusive Interview: Daniel LaCalle

My interview with Daniel LaCalle on everything from Central Bank policy, interest rates, market risk, and the future of economic growth. Read more from Daniel Lacalle at D-Lacalle.com Daniel Lacalle is a PhD in Economy and fund manager. He holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master’s degree in economic investigation (UCV). Chief Economist at Tressis SV Fund Manager at Adriza International Opportunities. Member of the advisory board of the Rafael...

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Exclusive Interview: Doug Kass

My interview with the brilliant Doug Kass on the recent market rout, his views on the world, economic growth, and earnings outlook going into next year. We also talk bonds, market cycles, and why the bull market remains at risk. You can subscribe to Doug’s excellent commentary at Real Money Pro Doug cut his teeth as an investigator and truth-teller as a member of “Nader’s Raiders,” Ralph Nader’s crusaders for consumer protection and safety. In fact, he co-authored Citibank: The Ralph Nader...

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