Monday , November 23 2020
Home / Tag Archives: Great Depression

Tag Archives: Great Depression

Don’t Low Rates On Junk Bonds Mean Fed-fueled Credit Bubble? No. Precisely The Opposite.

Despite what we’ve all been taught, and what gets reinforced in the media, it’s not really that difficult to get people to see the interest rate fallacy at least where it all starts. Central bankers say that low rates are stimulus when this runs contrary to every bit of historical experience as well as evidence. Yes, they are lying to you.When you begin explaining how by first using government bonds, suddenly it does make a lot of sense. Demand for the safest and most liquid instruments...

Read More »

The Big Picture’s Going To Need More Than Magic Words

What connects March 2020 with February 2008 as well as the Crash of ’87 all then with the Great Contraction which initiated the Great Depression? If you said economic and financial chaos, you’d be partly right. There wasn’t really much or any of that in 1987, though there was with the other three. People including politicians and central bankers don’t seem to be aware of the difference. For those who grew up on the old Sesame Street cartoons, one of these things is not like the others. But...

Read More »

Weimar Thirties Didn’t Happen Because It’s What You Don’t See

It was an absolutely mad scramble. Banking difficulties in the Fed’s sixth district, the Atlanta branch, had sparked an irresistible wave of panic which spread throughout the Eastern seaboard. By December 1930, it had reached the streets of New York City – the world’s monetary capital. On December 11, customer withdrawals had left the Bank of the United States with no other option but to close its doors and seek refuge from bank authorities. Given the institution’s unfortunate name, one...

Read More »

GDP + GFC = Fragile

March 15 was when it all began to come down. Not the stock market; that had been in freefall already, beset by the rolling destruction of fire sale liquidations emanating out of the repo market (collateral side first). No matter what the Federal Reserve did or announced, there was no stopping the runaway devastation.It wasn’t until the middle of March that the first major shutdown orders began to appear – on Twitter feeds – and these weren’t the total lockdowns we’re stuck with now, either....

Read More »

Anatomy of The Bear. Lessons from Russell Napier.

One of my annual re-reads is Russell Napier’s classic tome “Anatomy of the Bear.” A mandatory study for every financial professional and investor who seeks to understand not only how damaging bear markets can be but also the traits which mark their bottoms. Every bear is shaken from hibernation for different reasons. However, when studying the four great bottoms of bears in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, there are several common traits to these horrendous cycles.  I thought it would be...

Read More »

America: WILL WE FINALLY LEARN A LESSON?

“Much of what passes for orthodoxy in economics and finance proves, on closer examination, to be shaky business.” The Misbehavior of Markets – by Benoit Mandelbrot & Richard L. Hudson. If as households we do crumble financially yet another time, will this ‘outlier’ event finally teach us a valuable lesson? One we’ll never forget (again)? I mean, how many Black Swans or events that create wholesale economic and financial devastation must we endure to work diligently, effortlessly, to...

Read More »

#FPC: Tips For A Volatile Market

These last couple of weeks have been crazy in the markets, last week we saw steady declines and this week we’re yo-yoing from one of the best days in the market to date to one of the worst. It seems like the sky is falling, it always does when we get into one of these environments, but fret not we’ve been here before. The question is what will you do different this time around? Since you’re here you’re probably already doing something different in reading the Real Investment Advice...

Read More »

Three Ways to Avoid the “Lost Highway” of Financial “Advice.”

Now boys don’t start to ramblin’ roundOn this road of sin are you sorrow boundTake my advice or you’ll curse the dayYou started rollin’ down that lost highway Hank Williams. On the road to personal financial milestones, investors aspire to reach multiple destinations that are important to them – whether it’s saving for a college education or retirement, we all seek to assess travel risks, regularly track progress and hope to avoid hazardous conditions. We all long to  -cheer – “I have...

Read More »

#FPC: Dave Ramsey Is Right & Very Wrong About Permanent Life Insurance (Pt. 2)

Last week’s piece was on why Dave Ramsey is right and wrong about permanent life insurance and some of the reasons you may consider using a permanent life insurance policy.  To reiterate last week’s sentiment-permanent life insurance is not for most, but if you: Max out your retirement savings Make too much to contribute to a Roth Have accumulated a large savings account Want to gain flexibility from taxes Want growth, but would like some protection from high valuations Have a large estate...

Read More »

6 Considerations for Long-Term Care Coverage.

Retirement is a a continuous road; mile markers that represent age may be visualized along the path. However, if one looks to retire at 67 and in relatively good health, it’s a challenge to comprehend what quality of life may be like at 80. It’s easy to understand how 40 may not look too different from 60 from a quality of health perspective. The stretch from 60 to 90 may be so dramatically different, it’s a challenge to envision. How does one contemplate their own increasing frailty? People...

Read More »