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Tag Archives: Gold

Sign of the Times: Gold Has Its Most Vocal Proponents Helping Sell Jay Powell’s Fiction

Gold at $1800 an ounce has a lot of people you wouldn’t expect lining up in Jay Powell’s camp. What else could it be, right? Bullion is an inflation hedge, that’s what everyone says. Therefore, quite obviously, skyrocketing gold must indicate the dollar destruction gold aficionados are always predicting. Unbeknownst to them, and likely to agitate the hell out of them when they figure this out, they are actually doing the Fed a favor. Powell is trying very hard right now to push up inflation...

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The Bubble In A Fairy Tale World

Great interview with Michael Novogratz, Galaxy Digital founder, CEO, and chairman.  He sounds exactly like the global macro heads at GMM.  His money quotes from the July 8th CNBC interview should sound very familiar to our readers. Money Quotes Macro set-up is so perfect for something like gold…central banks around the world keep printing money…more money, more money, more money Gold is going to take old highs and keep going…we are just starting this move We are in the irrational...

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Are We on the Cusp of New Leg up in Risk Assets?

The consolidative/corrective phase in the capital markets appears to be drawing to a close.  The June PMI readings confirm a significant improvement is underway and that many high-income economies are on track to return to positive growth in Q3.  At the same time, the extent of government and central bank support is unprecedented.  The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week, save the Japanese yen.  All five of the best performers (NOK 2.1%, NZD 1.6%, AUD 1.0%, GBP...

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Caution as Last Part of Corrective Phase could be the most Impulsive

We anticipated and have been tracking the corrective or consolidative phase in the foreign exchange market since shortly after the unexpected surge in US non-farm payrolls reported on June 5.  That phase may not be over yet, and the quarter-end adjustments are a wildcard. Many expect large equity sales after strong rallies that were all the more incredible given the deep contractions most economies are expected to report for Q2.  The MSCI indices for developed economies and emerging...

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Corrective Forces Still Dominate

After a run-up in risk assets from the middle of May, broad consolidation was the main feature of the capital markets last week.  Markets were calmer.  The three-month implied volatility of all the major currencies fell, led by the usually high-beta dollar bloc. The VIX, which measures the volatility of the S&P 500 snapped a five-day decline ahead of the weekend. The volatility of the Treasury market (MOVE) also eased.  The risk is of higher volatility into the end of what has been...

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Dollar’s Upside Correction to Continue

A phase in the markets that began in mid-May ended last week with a dramatic sell-off in stocks and risk-assets in general.  The Federal Reserve confirmed what investors already knew.  After all, the implied interest rates for the December 2021 fed funds futures implied a negative yield at the start of the month, and a rate hike was not reflected in the derivatives markets until 2023.   It may not have been what the Fed said or did, but simply the old "buy the rumor sell the fact"...

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13/6/20: Gold Coins Sales are Up, and the Markets are Screaming Something New

Some interesting movements in demand for gold coins in recent months, worth watching:Price is up, and volume of sales is quite volatile. Still, sales are hitting highs.Following weaker y/y January and February, March 2020 sales rose almost x10 y/y in volume and average coin sold size rose from 0.5 oz in March 2019 to 0.674 oz in March 2020. April 2020 sales were x3.25 times sales in April 2019 by volume, with average coin size rising to 1.0 oz. May saw a major fall-off in demand m/m but...

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Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome

Overview:  The pullback ins US shares yesterday has not derailed the global advance.  Japanese and Chinese markets were mixed, the Hang Seng slipped, and Indonesia was hit with profit-taking, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain.  It has fallen once past two and a half weeks.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened higher but is falling for the third consecutive session. It has fallen 1.5% over the past two sessions, and US shares are trading a little lower.  Benchmark 10-year...

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Breakouts Confirmed, Time for Consolidation?

A 10 million-beat on the May non-farm payrolls failed to trigger much dollar demand.  Indeed, the dollar fell to new session lows against a few currencies after the report, including sterling and the Mexican peso, which are discussed at greater length a bit lower.  There does appear to have been a shift in market psychology in the middle of May.  We have been monitoring the heavier dollar, and the confirmation we sought last week of a breakout was delivered by the price action in recent...

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Breakouts Need Confirmation

The dollar had a difficult week, falling against all the major currencies but the Japanese yen and appeared to break out of its recent trading ranges against the euro, Canadian and Australian dollars. Only a handful of emerging market currencies fell against the dollar.  Among these were the Chinese yuan, which, when everything was said and done, lost 0.1% against the US dollar.  The Argentine peso was the weakest currency.  It lost about half of one percent as its debt restructuring...

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