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Tag Archives: global growth

Less Shine In The Sentiment Formula

The IMF yesterday downgraded its forecasts for global growth as well as its real GDP estimates for all the big economy regions. The organization now thinks GDP growth might have amounted to 2.9% last year. Not only the worst year since 2009, that was down from April 2019 approximations of 3.6% and the original forecasts which always start out near 4%. Worse, estimates for this year are being trimmed. Though pretty much everyone has become more optimistic about the global economy, what does...

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Finally Seeing Structural Problems, OECD Misses (badly) On The Right One

Building on the theme of midpoints, the current direction of the global economy, and the prospects for a Phase 2, the OECD provides us with another timely reminder about the way in which the global economy is developing. Not the good way. Releasing revised estimates for worldwide growth, the organization figures 2019 will be the slowest since 2009. In fact, at just less than 3% growth, that would be more like past global recessionary periods. Going back to the immediate aftermath of 2008,...

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A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like much, but in the context of German IP it is well within recession territory. During the 2012 recession which...

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16/10/19: Ireland and the Global Trade Wars

My first column for The Currency covering "Ireland, global trade wars and economic growth: Why Ireland’s economic future needs to be re-imagined": https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/1151/ireland-global-trade-wars-and-economic-growth-why-irelands-economic-future-needs-to-be-re-imagined. Synopsis: “Trade conflicts sweeping across the globe today are making these types of narrower bilateral agreements the new reality for our producers and policymakers.”

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The ISM Conundrum

Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. Falling below 50, this widely followed economic indicator continues its rapid unwinding. Back in November 2018, at just about 59 the overall index had still been close to its multi-decade high. Over the next nine months through the latest update for August 2019, it has shed almost 10 points. Dropping into the 40s,...

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7/7/19: 2Q 2019 BRIC PMIs: The Bad, The Ugly, and The Uglier Still

BRIC PMIs for June are out and with them we have 2Q 2019 figures. And the story they tell is two-fold:Fold 1: There is an ongoing Global-scale slowdown in the economy that is broad, sharp and testing the waters of a mild recession approaching Fold 2: The BRICs are barely providing any upside support to the Global momentum. Take Manufacturing: This is simply the 'Uglier' side of the ugly. Global Manufacturing PMI hit 49.8 in 2Q 2019 - statistically, zero growth level, nominally - a...

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14/5/19: Trump’s Trade Wars and Global Growth Slowdown Put Pressure on Corporate Earnings

The combined impacts of rising dollar strength, reduced growth momentum in the global economy and President Trump's trade wars are driving down earnings growth across S&P500 companies with double-digit drop in earnings of companies with more global (>50% of sales outside the U.S.) as opposed to domestic ( Per Factset data, released May 13, "The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) earnings decline for...

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