Tuesday , July 27 2021
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Tag Archives: Global Economy

6/6/21: BRIC PMIs for May: Volatile Growth and Surging Inflationary Pressures

BRIC PMIs for May 2021 show uneven pace of recovery within the group of the largest Merging and Middle Income economies and a uniform evidence of pressure on inflation side.Brazil: Manufacturing PMI is currently running at 53.0 for 2Q 2021 for two months into the quarter, down from 1Q 2021 reading of 55.9. This marks second consecutive quarter of decreases in Manufacturing sector activity in Brazil. Brazil Services PMI is currently running at a deeper recessionary reading of 45.6, compared...

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13/5/21: BRIC Composite PMIs April 2021: Recovery Fragile, Inflation Heating Up

April PMIs for BRIC economies show continued strengthening in the recovery in China and Russia, moderation in the recovery momentum in India and deepening collapse in the recovery in Brazil.Since we are into the first month of the new quarter, there is not enough data to go about to meaningfully analyze quarterly dynamics. Hence, I am only looking at Composite PMIs:PMIs in April run stronger, compared to 1Q 2021 averages for Russia (Services only), and China (Services and Manufacturing),...

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8/4/21: BRIC Composite PMIs 1Q 2021: A Mixed Bag for Recovery Votes

I covered BRIC Manufacturing PMIs for 1Q 2021 (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/5421-brics-manufacturing-pmis-1q-2021.html) and BRIC Services PMIs (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/8421-bric-services-pmi-1q-2021-slowing.html) in the two posts earlier.  Now, the round up analysis based on Composite PMIs:Brazil Composite PMI fell from 54.4 in 4Q 2020 to 52.1 in 1Q 2021, marking a slowdown in growth conditions in the economy. Quarterly activity in 1Q 2021 is still ahead of...

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8/4/21: BRIC Services PMI 1Q 2021: Slowing Growth Momentum

 Earlier this week, I posted on the latest PMI reports for BRIC economies for Manufacturing sector (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/5421-brics-manufacturing-pmis-1q-2021.html).  Now, let's cover Services Sector 1Q 2021 PMIs. Remember, Markit - source of data - cover only monthly PMIs.As reminder, Manufacturing PMIs fell in all BRIC economies except for Russia in 1Q 2021 compared to 4Q 2020. As the result, overall, BRIC Manufacturing Activity Index (GDP-weighted average of PMIs)...

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1/7/20: Manufacturing PMIs Q2 2020: BRIC

BRIC economies reported their June manufacturing PMIs, so we can update Q2 2020 data. Here is the chart: Despite improving PMIs in all BRIC economies through June 2020, quarterly readings remains deeply recessionary in all BRICs except for China.Brazil Manufacturing PMI averaged 40.6 in 2Q 2020 down from 1Q reading of 50.6. Brazil Manufacturing sector growth was slowing down from the start of 4Q 2019 and was showing anaemic growth (statistically, zero growth) in 1Q 2020 before COVID19...

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26/6/20: Longer-Term Impact of COVID19 on Growth

IMF published updated forecasts this week, and here the summary: IMF has stopped doing 5 year forecasts this April, due to uncertainty induced by the COVID19 pandemic.  Looking at the longer run effects of the pandemic, based on October 2019 (pre-Covid19 trends), and earlier growth trend before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) puts COVID19 pandemic into historical perspective: The differences between the above trend lines are telling.  Globally, GFC resulted in a...

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1/6/20: 3 months of COVID19 impact: BRIC Manufacturing PMIs

BRIC Manufacturing PMIs are out for May, showing some marginal improvements in the sector. However, of all four economies, China is the only one that is currently posting activity reading within the statistical range of zero--to-positive growth. Brazil, Russia and India remain deeply underwater. Please note, these are quarterly PMIs, not monthly, based on GDP-weighted shares of manufacturing sectors and monthly PMI data points. 

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