Tuesday , January 19 2021
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Tag Archives: Global Economics

Five Fed Presidents Praise Inflation, Not Threatened by Rising Yields

Five FED presidents praise financial fraud. In 2004, the FBI warned congress of massive mortgage fraud. In 2005, Greenspan praised bankers for getting people into homes they otherwise could not afford. Greenspan was praising massive mortgage fraud, which allowed people to get into homes they could not afford. After the housing bust, Greenspan pretended to lament that he thought the bankers would have been more responsible. Greenspan encouraged the irresponsibility with his taking of lending...

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Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months

BLS Jobs Statistics at a GlanceThe BLS reports total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 140,000 in December with private jobs down by 95,000.The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was an increase of 50,000 jobs. ADP Estimated a Loss of 123,000 Private  Jobs, nearly on the nose.Details from the monthly BLS Employment Report.Nonfarm Payroll: -140,000 to 142,624,000 - Establishment SurveyEmployment: +21,000 to 149,830,000- Household SurveyUnemployment: +8,000 to 10,736,000- Household SurveyBaseline...

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Trade Deficit Is the Highest Since August 2006

Eddie_T2 hrsSo....if we’re taking about the historical pattern of trade imbalances because we import so much from China...my take is that is that US consumers have been more beneficiaries of that phenomenon than victims. Net wealth effect. For the short run maybe it’ a leading indicator of higher unemployment.....which is certainly not good...but maybe to be expected until the pandemic starts to fade. People should get vaccinated asap. We need to beat this virus. Things weren’t looking...

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What’s Behind the Surge in M1 Money Supply?

M1 Money Supply ComponentsHere's a list of M1 components.M1 consists of currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; plusDemand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; plusOther checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or...

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ADP Forecasts a Big Job Loss in December

ADP December 2020 Forecast Private sector employment decreased by 123,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  Change by Company SizeMedium-sized businesses, defined as companies with 500-999 employees have been the hardest hit in the pandemic.Mish

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How Did Covid Impact Construction Spending?

Parting WaysFrom 2019 through April 2020 residential and commercial construction followed the same path. Both were on a decline already in 2020 then Covid accelerated the pace. In June of 2020, the recoveries in residential and commercial construction parted ways. It's easier to spot with year-over-year comparisons.Construction Spending Year-Over-YearNote the great parting of ways ahead in 2006 of the Great Recession. It's a reverse setup now with residential leading.Fed's Response in...

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How are Gold and Money Supply Related?

Let's investigate an alleged relationship between gold and M2, a measure of money supply in the US. Let's also investigate what's happening with M1, a more narrow measure of money supply.Clear Correlation?The Tweet claims something different than my lead chart depicts. So let's investigate the above idea in other time frames.Note: This subject came up again today, this time in reference to M1. It's an important topic because it is widely misunderstood. This is a repost with an additional...

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Democrats are In the Lead in Both Georgia Senate Races

Georgia Senate Runoff Contestants Republican U.S. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue face Democratic challengers Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in Georgia runoff elections. Spotlight on the PollsMany people dissed the 2020 election polls. Yes, the polls had problems. But the problems were universal and the polls did get the presidential election winner.Trafalgar vs. Nate SilverState by State ResultsGeorgia: Biden 49.5 vs Trump 49.3: Biden +0.2Nevada: Biden 50.1 vs Trump 47.7: Biden...

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The Vaccine Rollout is Much Slower Than Expected

Meanwhile in the UK... A SAGE adviser today hinted a third national lockdown including mass school closures may be required to suppress Covid as he insisted 'keeping people apart' stops the virus from spreading. Professor Sir Mark Walport claimed the 'mutant' strain of coronavirus was transmitting rapidly among children, with those aged between 12 and 16 seven times more likely to 'infect' a household. Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show as Liverpool's leaders called for a blanket...

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Exploding Debt Levels Will Kill the Stock Moon Launch

Realist1 dayClearly, there are as many predictions about the future as there are individuals. Regarding investments, you can find numerous predictions that echo what you believe, if that makes you feel better. Personally, I would rather admit that I have no idea of what the future holds for my investments, and focus instead on diversifying as much as possible, in terms of assets, and geography. Stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, farmland, private equity, cash, etc all have a place in my...

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