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Tag Archives: Global Economics

Huge Difference Between GDPNow and Nowcast Models

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast GDP models once again are wildly different. Wide Discrepancy In the past week, the GDPNow model forecast rose to 2.0% from 1.5%. In the past week, the Nowcast model forecast fell to 0.6% from 0.8%. Not only were the starting points very different, the models responded in opposite fashion to the same economic news. GDPNow rose 0.5 percentage points while the Nowcast fell 0.2 Percentage points, a net difference of 0.7 percentage points. How?...

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Trump Tweets “Manufacturing Blowout”: What’s the Real Story?

President Trump quickly hopped on the GM strike-end surge in jobs. Let's have a look. Manufacturing Blowout Manufacturing Employment The last two months average +5.5. there is no surge in manufacturing employment. Employment in Motor Vehicles and Parts Average out the last two months and you get an impressive -1 in October and an equally impressive -1 in November. That's a small decline in 7 of the last 9 months. Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours Year-Over-Year Manufacturing Average...

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Jobs Surge in Strike-Ending and Seasonal Adjustment Rebound

Jobs rose far more than expected in a rebound from GM strike end and seasonal adjustment factors. ​Initial Reaction Jobs came in much better than expected. ADP forecast a mere 67,000 jobs. The GM strike ended and that explains a huge surge in manufacturing and auto parts jobs. Seasonal factors also skewed the report. Thanksgiving was very late in the month, in fact, on the last possible day, November 28. Auto Parts Jobs Job Revisions The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for...

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Tory Majority of 48 Based On Latest ComRes Data

The latest ComRes polling data suggests a Tory majority of 48 in the UK election a week from now. Voting Intention Little Changed Dec 2-3 ComRes Poll Raw Numbers My lead chart was produced by plugging the latest ComRes Poll results into the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor Those numbers are from Table 23 in the ComRes poll. Seat-by-Seat Change Projections Those are neither ComRes predictions nor Electoral Calculus prediction. Rather, they are the results I obtain putting ComRes...

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France Grinds to a Halt in Massive Strike

Hundreds of thousands of lawyers, teachers, students and air-traffic controllers protest pension Macron's pension reform Cities Paralyzed French president Emmanuel macron is back in the hot seat over reform proposals. Over 800,000 protesters have taken to the streets in a Massive Strike that has paralyzed cities. Cities across France were paralyzed by a massive public transport strike against a planned overhaul of France’s pensions system, in a test of President Emmanuel Macron’s resolve to...

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How to Re-Elect Trump in One Easy Lesson

Radical progressives are up in arms. Ironically, if Trump wins again, they will be the reason. Not Getting It Wall Street Journal writer Jason Riley laments "Bloomberg's past accomplishments in business and politics are liabilities among today’s Democrats." With that lead-in, Riley tries to explain Why Bloomberg’s Candidacy Is Terminal. It isn’t that Mr. Bloomberg doesn’t have a solid record of accomplishments as a private citizen and elected official. He built one of the world’s most...

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Democrats Will Draw Up Articles of Impeachment Against “King” Trump

In a six-minute video statement, Pelosi announces articles of impeachment. Impeachment Announcement In the above politically charged video, Nancy Pelosi cites fear of a monarchy and a "king president" corrupted by foreign influences. Pelosi goes on to say "The facts are uncontested. The president abused his power for his own personal political benefit at the expense of our national security in exchange for an announcement of an investigation into his political rival.” "The president's...

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Trump Throws Tantrum, Blasts “Two-Faced” Canada, Leaves Nato Summit

After calling Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “two faced”, Trump stormed out of NATO summit. Trump stormed out of a NATO summit after he or one of his aides overheard Trudeau complaining Trump was late for the summit because he gave a 40-minute press conference. Please consider Trump Leaves NATO Summit After Video Flap President Trump called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “two faced” after a video emerged of a group of NATO leaders discussing the U.S. leader without him...

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