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Tag Archives: Germany

QOTD: Inflationary Pressure In The Pipeline

QOTD = Quote of the Day Inflationary pressures have started to return tothe manufacturing sector, with October seeing the first – albeit slight – increases in both input costs and outputprices since the first half of 2019. Demand conditionsacross manufacturing and its supply chain look to bereturning to something that resembles ‘normal’, and somore firms have started to up prices. – German PMI, Markit Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage.Either way, Europe gets at it first. In 2018, what had been planned to be an...

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Synchronized (still)

Their experience with COVID has been different in each case. Their response to the outbreak and pandemic hardly uniform. Mexico, for example, has reported 855,000 cases of the coronavirus from which more than 86,000 have died (or were found to have the disease when they died). Japan, on the other hand, just 93,000 cases with only 1,600 fatalities. We all know the US stats (it is, after all, the home stretch of this highly contentious quadrennial election season).Some lockdowns, not others....

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Sobering Germans To The Mexican and Indian “V”

The original “V” narrative was simple and straightforward. The economy was turned off by governments prioritizing modeled simulations of something like the Black Death, but it would be easy enough to turn it right back on especially with the aid of so much “stimulus” being added in every possible way. Monetary, fiscal, you name it.Piece of cake. Legitimizing the choice of overreacting to disease projections. The very fact the “V” has already shifted is itself a big clue. A cakewalk it...

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Why Aren’t Bond Yields Flying Higher Globally? Exhibit A: Germany/Europe

Mario Draghi was a very polarizing figure for him to be atop a central bank that has no natural constituency. Sure, there is a European Central Bank but there remain National Central Banks which had retained their own powers and influence following the monetary union. Draghi’s approach rubbed critics the wrong way, a growing legion of them, a lot of times because he simply refused to talk with anyone.Mario would often run to the press to announce his position before even consulting the...

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22/9/20: COVID19 Update: German Economic Growth Forecasts 2020-2022

Germany's ifo Institute published their forecasts for 2020-2022 today. These represent an improvement on Summer forecasts, but continue to show big impact of the COVID19 pandemic lasting beyond 2021:Private consumption is expected to be 0.82 percentage points below 2019 at the end of 2022, and barely in line (0.78 percentage points above) with 2018 levels. GDP is forecast to reach 1.34 percentage points above 2019 levels in 2022. Employment levels are projected to stay below 2019 levels...

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Markets Look for Direction, while Nord Stream II and SMIC are in the Cross-Hairs

Overview:  The capital markets are looking for fresh directional cues after last week's equity declines and seeming reversal in the US dollar.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6% last week, its largest drop since April.  Markets in the region were mixed, with Japan, Taiwan, and especially China and Hong Kong moving lower.  European shares are doing better, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recouping most of its pre-weekend losses.  US shares are little changed.  Bond markets are quiet. ...

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After much Build-Up, Could Powell be Anti-Climactic?

Overview:  The strong rally in US equities yesterday, with the fifth consecutive gain in the S&P 500 and a big outside up day in gold, failed to spur follow-through buying today.  Asia Pacific equities were mixed.  China, Australia, and India rose while most of the rest of the regional markets fell.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is around 0.30% lower near midday, and it continues to flirt with the 200-day moving average.  US shares point to a lower opening, though Fed Chair Powell...

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26/8/20: Germany’s Exports Expectations: Some Bad News

 ifo Institute's latest exports expectations for Germany are out and the data is quite interesting:Firstly, expectations moderated in August, compared to July, although on balance, there are still more positive sentiment responders as opposed to the negative ones. This moderation is surprising, because of the sharpness of prior COVID19-related collapse and because August saw more global relaxation of COVID19 restrictions. Secondly, it appears that expectations for exports growth are now...

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