Monday , December 9 2019
Home / Tag Archives: GDP

Tag Archives: GDP

Dimon’s View Of Economic Reality Is Still Delusional

“This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen and it’s going to be a very prosperous economy for the next 100 years.” – Jamie Dimon That’s what the head of JP Morgan Chase told viewers in a recent “60-Minutes” interview. “The consumer, which is 70% of the U.S. economy, is quite strong. Confidence is very high. Their balance sheets are in great shape. And you see that the strength of the American consumer is driving the American economy and the global economy. And while business...

Read More »

The Most Important & Overlooked Economic Number

Every month, and quarter, economists, analysts, the media, and investors pour over a variety of mainstream economic indicators from GDP, to employment, to inflation to determine what the markets are likely to do next. While economic numbers like GDP, or the monthly non-farm payroll report, typically garner the headlines, the most useful statistic, in my opinion, is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). It often goes ignored by investors and the press, but the CFNAI is a composite...

Read More »

Need A Break From The Inlaws? Your “Turkey Day” Reading List

It’s “Thanksgiving Day,” and after the annual indulging into too much Turkey and dressing, cranberry sauce, and pecan pie, you might just need a break from the family to “do some research.” We are happy to oblige with a few of our most important articles over the last few months as they relate to where we are in the current economic and market cycle. Consumers Are Keeping The U.S. Out Of Recession? Don’t Count On It. “[Who is a better measure of economic strength?] Is it the consumer cranking...

Read More »

Further The Zombie Bubble

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has revised its preliminary estimate of GDP. That can only mean one thing: time to look at corporate profits again. Included along with the recalculated headline output estimate is the BEA’s first run of profit figures. If you are Jay Powell, you aren’t going to like what you find. First, real GDP in the third quarter was practically unchanged. Revised from around 1.90% (continuously compounded annual rate of change) to a touch above 2.10%, either of...

Read More »

Nothing Good From A Chinese Industrial Recession

October 2017 continues to show up as the most crucial month across a wide range of global economic data. In the mainstream telling, it should have been a very good thing, a hugely positive inflection. That was the time of true inflation hysteria around the globe, though it was always presented as a rationally-determined base case rather than the unsupported madness it really was. That was the month the real recovery was supposed to have started. Instead, we can now plainly observe how it was...

Read More »

Can The Fed Fight Wealth Inequality

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says the Fed Can Fight Inequality. Then in a move guaranteed to fail, Kashkari Hires an Obama Economic Advisior as His Guide. Neel Kashkari, the outspoken dove at the Minneapolis Fed, says monetary policy can play the kind of redistributing role once thought to be the preserve of elected officials.When Kashkari, a year into his job, launched an in-house effort in 2017 to examine widening disparities in the economy, he was expecting to generate...

Read More »

The Difference Between Investing & Speculation (10-Investing Rules)

Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”  In today’s market the majority of investors are simply chasing performance. However, why would you NOT expect this to be the case when financial advisers, the mainstream media, and WallStreet continually press the idea that investors “must beat” some random benchmark index from one year to the next. But, is this “speculation” or “investing?”  Think about it this way. If you were playing a hand of poker, and were dealt a “pair of deuces,” would you...

Read More »

$250 Trillion In Global Debt: How Can That Be Paid Back

Global debt just topped $250 trillion. Please ponder paying the interest on that, let alone the principal. Global Debt $250 Trillion and Rising Please note that Global debt surged to a record $250 trillion in the first half of 2019, led by the US and China. What about Global GDP? Global GDP Global GDP Numbers from the World Bank. To get a $1 rise in GDP it takes about a $3 rise in debt. Things keep pointing back to 1971. I have written about the importance of 1971...

Read More »

Powell’s Fantasy: The Economy Should Grow Faster Than Debt

In recent testimony to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, Jerome Powell stated: “The debt is growing faster than the economy — that’s unsustainable. It’s not the Fed’s job to say how the government should cut the deficit, but we need to get the economy to grow faster than the debt. Otherwise, future generations will be paying more of their taxes to cover the government’s debt costs than for other things like health care, etc. I think the new normal now is low interest rates, low inflation...

Read More »

Another Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

Earlier this month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan had reported an enormous surge in household outlays. For the month of September 2019, the Japanese had splurged on everything from big ticket items to regular discretionary products. Total spending in the month was up 9.5% year-over-year in real terms, an enormous increase which had been the fastest pace ever recorded in data that dates back more than half a century. The reason for the increase was simple: the looming VAT tax hike. In...

Read More »