Friday , August 7 2020
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Tag Archives: Free Posts

A buying opportunity for Chinese stocks?

I had a number of bullish comments on China in the wake of my last post (see How worried should you be about China?). Jeroen Blokland pointed out that the market is discounting a lot of weakness in the Chinese economy.  On the other hand, Caterpillar shares cratered today on jitters of a China slowdown. This brings up the question, “Are Chinese stocks a contrarian buy opportunity?”  Valuation support Indeed, there is valuation support for Chinese stocks. Callum Thomas highlighted the...

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How worried should you be about China?

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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How far can this pullback run?

Mid-week market update: The Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal occurred a little two weeks ago. For those who jump onto the bullish bandwagon, it has been an exhilarating ride. This week, the inevitable pullback has arrived. The SPX breached a key uptrend on the hourly chart yesterday (Tuesday), and it could not hold the morning good news rally induced by the positive earnings reports from Comcast, IBM, and United Technologies. How far can this pullback run? The bear case There is a case...

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An opportunity in EM stocks?

The latest BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that institutional managers have been piling into emerging market equities while avoiding the other major developed market regions.  Indeed, there is good reasoning behind the bullish stampede. Callum Thomas showed a series of charts supportive of the EM equity bull case. For one, developed market M-PMIs have been falling while EM PMIs have been mostly steady.  On a relative basis, EM/DM equity performance are showing signs of a long-term...

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A different kind of America First

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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There is no magic black box to profits

Mid-week market update: Since my publication detailing the Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal (see A rare “what’s my credit card limit” buy signal), I have been inundated with questions about the possible twists and turns of the market after such a signal. I discussed this issue extensively in 2015 (see The Zweig Breadth Thrust as a case study in quantitative analysis), my conclusion was: What can we conclude from examining the data? Perturbing the data can yield different ZBT signals, Even...

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A State of Emergency for the markets too?

President Trump has threatened to impose a State of Emergency in order to get his Wall built. Can he do that? Analysis from The Economist indicates that there is historical precedence for such actions: Presidents do have wide discretion to declare national emergencies and take unilateral action for which they ordinarily need legislative approval. A “latitude”, John Locke wrote in 1689 (and his writings influenced the US constitution), must be “left to the executive power, to do many things...

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Ursus Interruptus

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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The Animal Spirits are stirring

Mid-week market update: In light of Monday`s Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, I thought I would do one of my periodic sector reviews to analyze both sector leadership and the implications for stock market direction. As a reminder, Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG charts, are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different groups, such as sectors, countries or regions, or market factors. The charts are organized into four quadrants. The typical group rotation pattern occurs in a...

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Will the Fed pause in March?

In the wake of Powell’s statements last Friday, the market now expects no changes in the Fed Funds rate this year, with a slight chance of a rate hike.  Contrast those expectations with the dot plot, which has penciled in two rate hikes this year.  The history of Fed policy is slow incremental changes. Has the market gone overboard on the dovish when it expects a change from two hikes to no hikes?  What Powell said The market got all excited on Friday during the ASSA panel...

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