Saturday , April 17 2021
Home / Tag Archives: Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Tag Archives: Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 63; Part 1: Bernanke Was Not Making Sense, Bonds, Bubbles & Money

63.1 Bernanke’s Idea Doesn’t Make Any Sense———Part 3 Summary———In the early 2000s, bond markets ignored the Fed. Alan Greenspan called it a “conundrum”. Ben Bernanke blamed a “Global Savings Glut”. But recent Federal Reserve research notes events since 2008 upend the Bernanke glut and instead suggest economic weakness and financial fear as causal. ———SEE IT———–...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Nothing To See Here. No, Really. Nothing.

The answer to the question, “What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time believing that doing nothing is the right response….to anything…or nothing. We are programmed to believe that success comes from doing things, not not doing things. And so, often we look at markets on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis and think something of significance happened and we ought to...

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Scorching, Blistering, Highest In A Decade! Powell’s The Voice of Reason Here?

If there is one thing Economists understand very well, it’s mathematics. This is practically all they do, and all that means much to their discipline. If there’s one thing Economists don’t seem either competent with or interested in, it’s the economy. The math is supposed to match the other’s reality, yet rarely does.There are times, however, when simple calculation is sufficient and (figuratively) on the money (literally, that is the whole other story).Such was the case around 2011 and...

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Rechecking On Bill And His Newfound Followers

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury has obtained some bids. Not long ago the certain harbinger of bond rout doom, the long end maybe has joined the rest of the world in its global pause if somewhat later than it had begun elsewhere (including, importantly, its own TIPS real yield backyard). Even nearer-in inflation expectations have rounded off at their current top. Perhaps no more than a short-term rest before each rising again, then again with the rest of the world’s markets acting...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 62; Part 3: Downgrading ‘Stimulus’ Expectations

62.3 Why the Biden (and Trump!) Stimulus is OVERHYPED———Part 3 Summary———The 2007-09 crisis was a permanent shock. Neo-Keynesians do not believe such a thing is possible. But consumers? Not only do they believe in permanent shocks, they KNOW they are very real. Therefore, the Trump and Biden stimulus payments have NO CHANCE of fixing the economy. ———Episode 62 Intro——— “I glanced at the list, running over names (probably misspelled) that meant nothing to me, with my hand on the butt of my...

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Real Dollar ‘Privilege’ On Display (again)

Twenty-fifteen was an important yet completely misunderstood year. The Fed was going to have to become hawkish, according to its models, yet oil prices crashed and the dollar continued to rise. Both of those things were described as “transitory” by Janet Yellen, and that they were helpful or positive (rising dollar means cleanest dirty shirt!), but domestically American policymakers’ clear lack of conviction and courage about that rate hike regime showed otherwise. It wouldn’t be until...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 62; Part 2: *The* Market Speaks

62.2 Best Market Fed Always Ignores: Eurodollar Futures———Part 2 Summary———If there was A SILVER BULLET, if there was ONE RING TO RULE THEM ALL – if there was ONE MARKET TO FOLLOW to track the health of the global monetary order and world economy – it would be the Eurodollar Futures market. Incredibly, the Federal Reserve has a very low opinion of it. ———Episode 62 Intro——— “I glanced at the list, running over names (probably misspelled) that meant nothing to me, with my hand...

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Can We Reconcile Jobless Claims To Payrolls?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that in the month of March 2021 somewhere around 916,000 payrolls were added back to the economy. I have to disclaim the figure simply because the statistics used to create it aren’t really all that precise; piecing together data from a survey of 145,000 business establishments, a fraction of the economy’s total, the government comes up with a 90% (only 90%) confidence interval that’s a few hundred thousand in breadth.In other words, what the...

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Soar or Sour: Short Run, *Then* What?

The sound of economic sizzle finally within earshot, though perhaps nearly a year too late. PMI’s for the month of March 2021 were of the sort which should have come about in May and June 2020. The “V”-shaped recovery was much talked about at that earlier time, though in PMI terms (as well as regular “hard” data) the numbers fell way, way short of it. I and others had pointed out repeatedly that to be consistent with an actual recovery, given the depths from where the recession began, the...

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