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Tag Archives: FED

One Trick Pony: The Fed Is Pushing On A String

Last week, I discussed the Fed’s recent comments suggesting they might be closer to cutting rates and restarting “QE” than not. “In short, the proximity of interest rates to the ELB (Effective Lower Bound) has become the preeminent monetary policy challenge of our time, tainting all manner of issues with ELB risk and imbuing many old challenges with greater significance.   “Perhaps it is time to retire the term ‘unconventional’ when referring to tools that were used in the crisis. We...

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3-Steps To Holistic Financial Wellness

Investors tend to narrowly define wealth management as portfolios and products. Unfortunately, many financial professionals permit this shortsightedness as it aligns with their aspirations to sell investment vehicles, then move on to the next prospects. However, this pervasive myopia is a tremendous oversight; investors and financial consumers miss out on the advantages of holistic financial processes and the robust long-term fruitful actions which follow. We find that people who embrace...

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Hope For The Best, Plan For The Worst

Around 46 BC, Cicero wrote to a friend saying, “you must hope for the best.” To be happy in life we must always have “hope.” It is “hope” which is the beacon that lights the pathway from the darkness that eventually befalls everyone at one point or another in their life. However, when it comes to financial planning and investing we should consider Benjamin Disraeli’s version from “The Wondrous Tale Of Alroy:” “I am prepared for the worst, but hope for the best.”  During very late stage bull...

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The Corporate Maginot Line

Since the post-financial crisis era began more than a decade ago, record low-interest rates and the Fed’s acquisition of $4 trillion of the highest quality fixed-income assets has led investors to scratch and claw for any asset, regardless of quality, offering returns above the rate of inflation.  Financial media articles and Wall Street research discussing this dynamic are a dime-a-dozen. What we have not heard a peep about, however, are the inherent risks within the corporate bond...

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5-Things Savvy Investors Should Know About Social Security

The recent Nationwide Retirement Institute® Consumer Social Security PR Study conducted by Harris Poll queried 1,315 U.S. adults aged 50 and over who collect or plan to collect Social Security benefits. Recent retirees, future retirees and those who retired in 10+ years were polled. The results of this study provide a formidable glimpse into perceptions of Social Security and how they change over time. Here are 5 highlights for future retirees who seek to maximize benefits and understand how...

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In The Fed We Trust – Part 1

This article is the first part of a two-part article. Due to its length and importance, we split it to help readers’ better digest the information. The purpose of the article is to define money and currency and discuss their differences and risks. It is with this knowledge that we can better appreciate the path that massive deficits and monetary tomfoolery are putting us on and what we can do to protect ourselves.   How often do you think about what the dollar bills in your wallet or the...

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Is Capitalism Responsible For Socialist Sentiment?

In 2009, I shared 2 words on Facebook that I felt would shape the future of our social and economic discussions: Socialism & Nationalism. Not trying to be a smarta**, however, I told you so. A shallow economic recovery (one of the weakest post-WW2), since the Great Recession, intervention by the Fed and persistent greed from U.S. corporations that place shareholders and senior executives above all else, have blossomed dissatisfaction with the very heart of our system. In 2012, I outlined...

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Technically Speaking: The Drums Of Trade War – Part Deux

In June of 2018, as the initial rounds of the “Trade War” were heating up, I wrote: “Next week, the Trump Administration will announce $50 billion in ‘tariffs’ on Chinese products. The trade war remains a risk to the markets in the short-term.” Of course, 2018 turned out to be a volatile year for investors which ended in the sell-off into Christmas Eve. As we have been writing for the last couple of weeks, the risks to the market have risen markedly as we head into the summer months. “It is a...

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Valuations, Returns & The Real Value Of Cash

Since the beginning of 2019, the market has risen sharply. That increase was not due to rising earnings and revenues, which have weakened, but rather from multiple expansion. In other words, investors are willing to pay higher prices for weaker earnings. The issue, of course, is that while it may not seem to matter in the short-term, valuations matter a lot in the long-run. I know what you are thinking. “There is NO WAY cash will outperform stocks over the next decade.”  I understand. After a...

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