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Tag Archives: fed funds

QE By Any Other Name

“What’s in a name? That which we call a rose, By any other name would smell as sweet.” – Juliet Capulet in Romeo and Juliet by William Shakespeare Burgeoning Problem The short-term repo funding turmoil that cropped up in mid-September continues to be discussed at length. The Federal Reserve quickly addressed soaring overnight funding costs through a special repo financing facility not used since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The re-introduction of repo facilities has, thus far,...

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The Wholesale Zoo: Where Did All The Animals Go?

One of the most maddening aspects of the recent repo market, federal funds mashup is the lack of context behind it. The event is being characterized and described as if in isolation. Regulations are squeezing dealers at the same time there is a lack of bank reserves. Thanks to QT, there’s just not enough liquidity to go around. Therefore, the Fed adds a repo facility of some type and, voila, back to our regularly scheduled programming. It all sounds very comforting. The focus on bank reserves...

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The Great LIBOR Liquidation

We are thrilled to introduce Jess L. as a new contributor to RIA. Jess started her career nearly two decades ago as a market maker at Goldman Sachs, followed by a stint at Merrill Lynch. After that, she moved over to the buy-side as a Portfolio Manager at Caxton Associates before ending her career at Millennium Partners. Throughout her career, she has had the opportunity to trade a number of different asset classes, but the one nearest & dearest to her heart is the front-end of the USD...

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Who Could Have Known: What The Repo Fiasco Entails

Imagine approaching a friend that you think is very wealthy and asking her to borrow ten thousand dollars for just one night. To entice her, you offer as collateral the title to your 2019 Lexus parked in her driveway along with an interest rate that is 5% above that which she is earning in the bank. Shockingly, your friend says she can’t. Given the risk-free nature of the transaction and excellent one-day profit, we can assume that our friend may not be as wealthy as we thought. On...

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Waiting on the Calvary

Engaged in one of those protectionist trade spats people have been talking about, the flow of goods between South Korea and Japan has been choked off. The specific national reasons for the dispute are immaterial. As trade falls off everywhere, countries are increasingly looking to protect their own. Nothing new, this is a feature of when prolonged stagnation turns to outright contraction. While the dispute with Japan hasn’t helped, it isn’t responsible for the level of decline the Republic of...

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Nasty Number Four: Repo Chaos, TAF Makes A Comeback, and EFF Shows Us How Inept Officials Really Are

There are seasonal bottlenecks which litter the calendar. Why did Lehman fail two weeks before the end of the third quarter of 2008? Bear Stearns, if you remember, came to the end of its rope…two weeks before the end of that year’s first quarter. And here we are again today two weeks before another quarter-end. US money markets are in a state of visible disarray. When repo is front page news that can’t be good. Most people including those in the financial media have no idea what a repurchase...

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The Fed Continues To Make Policy Mistakes

“During the last year, the Federal Reserve has hinted that the period of ‘ultra-accommodative monetary policy’ was coming to an end. The Fed started that process last October by terminating the latest ‘Quantitative Easing’ program, which induced massive amounts of liquidity into the financial markets. Subsequently, the Fed has turned its focus towards the near ZERO level of the ‘Fed Funds’ rate.” – July 6, 2015 It seems like an eternity ago now, but I warned then the Fed was too late in the...

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Investors Are Grossly Underestimating The Fed – RIA Pro UNLOCKED

 If you think the Fed may only lower rates by .50 or even .75, you may be grossly underestimating them.  The following article was posted for RIA Pro subscribers two weeks ago. For more research like this as well as daily commentary, investment ideas, portfolios, scanning and analysis tools, and our new 401K manager sign up today at RIA Pro and test drive our site for 30 days before being charged. Currently, the December 2019 Fed Funds futures contract implies that the Fed will reduce the...

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Embroiled by Fed Funds, FRBNY 143 Months After BNP Finally Says ‘Offshore’

It was a poignant moment that has gone totally unappreciated. Lost in the noise about subprime mortgages, on August 9, 2007, what actually happened that day represented perhaps the best example of how things worked. Or suddenly didn’t. On the occasion of the 10th anniversary, I recounted the tale of BNP Paribas. You’ve heard of Lehman and Bear Stearns, countless stories about Countrywide and Wachovia. Maybe even something about money market funds. This one French bank’s contributions weren’t...

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Shelton, The Fed, & The Realization Of A Liquidity Trap

Last week, President Trump nominated Judy Shelton to a board seat on the Federal Reserve. Shelton has been garnering a lot of “buzz” because of her outspoken and alternative stances, including “zero interest rates” and a “gold standard” for the U.S. dollar. But, Shelton is full of inconsistent and incongruous views on monetary policy. For instance, in 2017 she stated: “When governments manipulate exchange rates (by changing interest rates) to affect currency markets, they undermine the honest...

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