Monday , October 21 2019
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Tag Archives: Featured

Dollar Pops, China is Ready to Deal. Is the Rally Durable?

Dollar Pops, China is Ready to Deal. Is the Rally Durable? Daily FX Market Roundup October 7, 2019 There are 3 events that could trigger a major rally for the US dollar this week. US-China trade talks, the FOMC minutes and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. This morning, investors were skeptical about trade because Vice Premier He suggested that China would not relent on their industrial policy and state subsidies. While that remains the case, by the end of the day, the...

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Why the Bullish Dollar Thesis is Flawed

Market Drivers October 7, 2019 Risk-off flows open the week Euro area sentiment sinks Nikkei -0.16% Dax -0.10% UST 10Y 1.52% Oil $53/bbl Gold $1501/oz BTCUSD $7921 Europe and Asia: EU Sentix -16.8 vs. -13.0 North America: No Data It’s been quiet but a shaky start of the week in FX with risk-off flows dominating the open of EU trade as economic data and geo-political risk continue to weigh on the market. In Hong Kong, there was no end to the protests which continue to escalate in violence...

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Dollar Heads Lower. Don’t be Fooled by Jobs Report

Dollar Heads Lower. Don’t be Fooled by Jobs Report Daily FX Market Roundup October 4, 2019 Don’t be fooled by the September jobs report. The unemployment rate may have dropped to its lowest level in 50 years but the labor market is weakening and not improving. While the data suggests that the economy is at full employment, hence the moderation in job growth, the slowdown in the services and manufacturing poses a major risk to hiring in the months ahead. Only 136K jobs were created last...

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Will NFP Be the Death Knell of the Dollar?

Market Drivers October 4, 2019 FX Steady ahead of NFP AU Retail Sales miss slightly Nikkei 0.32% Dax -0.02% UST 10Y 1.52% Oil $52/bbl Gold $1509/oz BTCUSD $8138 Europe and Asia: AU AUD Retail Sales 0.4% vs. 0.5% North America: USD NFP 8:30 CAD Trade Balance 8:30 It’s been a quiet night of trade in FX with majors contained in very tight ranges as markets awaited the release of today US NFP report with sentiment toward the US now highly negative. The sharp decline in both ISM surveys this...

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Will Non-Farm Payrolls Send Stocks & Dollar Crumbling Lower?

Will Non-Farm Payrolls Send Stocks & Dollar Crumbling Lower? Daily FX Market Roundup October 3, 2019 The hope for a recovery in the last quarter of 2019 disappeared with today’s non-manufacturing ISM report. Investors can no longer fool themselves into thinking that the US can escape the global slowdown. After learning that manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in 10 years, ISM reported the weakest service sector activity index since 2016. American businesses are...

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UK PMI Signals Recession but Cable Holds Bid on Brexit Hopes

Market Drivers October 3, 2019 UK PMI sinks All eyes on US ISM Nikkei -2.01% Dax closed UST 10Y 1.58% Oil $52/bbl Gold $1500/oz BTCUSD $8300 Europe and Asia: GBP UK PMI Svc.49.5 North America: USD ISM Non Manufacturing 10:00 UK PMI services report dipped below the 50 boom/bust line suggesting that the economy is headed for the recession, but cable ignored the news holding bid at 1.2300 as markets focused on possible progress on Brexit talks. UK PMI services printed at 49.5 vs. 50.3 eyed...

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Global Growth Worries Send Risk FX Lower

Market Drivers October 2, 2019 Risk-off in markets BoJo puts an ultimatum to EU Nikkei -0.49% Dax -1.078% UST 10Y 1.63% Oil $53/bbl Gold $1483/oz BTCUSD $8284 Europe and Asia: No data North America: USD ADP 8:15 A clear risk-off pall hit the currency market today with both Asian and European equity bourses in the red on concerns over global growth. Yesterday’s very weak US ISM manufacturing number shocked the market and sent US equities lower as the data showed the worst performance for...

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Dollar Demand Vanishes on Ugly Data

Dollar Demand Vanishes on Ugly Data Daily FX Market Roundup October 1, 2019 With the exception of euro and sterling, all of the major currencies traded lower today against the greenback with the Australian dollar lead the slide. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the third time this year to a record low of 0.75% but the big story is the near term top in greenback. The US dollar started the NY session firm against all major currencies and at multi-year highs versus the...

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RBA Cuts – Aussie tests .6700

Market Drivers October 1, 2019 RBA cuts rates BoJo has a plan Nikkei 0.59% Dax 0.38% UST 10Y 1.70% Oil $54/bbl Gold $1463/oz BTCUSD $8427 Europe and Asia: RBA cuts 25bp North America: CAD GDP 8:30 USD ISM Manufacturing 10:00 The RBA cut rates by 25bp taking the benchmark rate to an all-time low of 75bp as the central bank remained concerned about the downside risks in the global economy. The news helped to push Aussie to the .6700 figure where it found a modicum of support in early...

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RBA 25bp Cut – Yes or No?

RBA 25bp Cut – Yes or No? Daily FX Market Roundup Sept 26, 2019 September has been a rocky month for the US dollar. The trade weighted Dollar Index climbed to its strongest level in nearly 2 years, but on a relative basis the dollar’s gains were limited to the Japanese Yen, New Zealand dollar, Swiss Franc and euro. Sterling, the Canadian and Australian dollars outperformed the greenback as position adjustments (short-covering) drove those currencies higher. There were two big...

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