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Tag Archives: Featured Blogs

The Myths Of Stocks For The Long Run – Part XII

Written by Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz, CFA of Real Investment Advice CHAPTER 12 – 181 Lines of Wisdom Over the last 30-years, I have endeavored to learn from my own mistakes and, trust me, I have paid plenty of “stupid-tax” along the way. However, it is only from making mistakes, that we learn how to become a better investor, advisor or portfolio manager. You have now read our opinions on buy and hold. Before we conclude we thought you should hear the views of investing legends. The...

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Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession?

Last week, Barron’s ran an article entitled “The Stock Market Is Just As Confused About A Potential Recession As You Are?” To wit: “Investors have long used where we are in the economic cycle to decide which stocks to buy and sell. New research from Nomura’s Joseph Mezrich flips that on its head by showing how investors can use stock performance to help determine where we are in the cycle. Too bad the market is sending mixed messages right now.” But let’s be clear here; no one wants the party...

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The Bond Bull Market

Last year, I wrote an article entitled “The Upcoming Bond Bull Market,” which, at the time, was pushing against the mainstream consensus which was predicting rates could only go higher. I am updating that article with the latest data points as the overall thesis of “why” we have remained bullish on bonds since 2013 remains intact. As we said at the time as yields were hitting some of the highest levels seen in the last decade: “The worse things seem, the better the opportunities are for...

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For The Average Investor, The Next Bear Market Will Likely Be The Last

Just recently Anna-Louise Jackson published an interesting article asking if “The Financial Crisis” still haunted your investing. To wit: “This month marks the 10-year anniversary of the current bull market’s beginnings. Yet, many Americans remain reluctant to invest in the stock market, a scary hangover from the 2007-09 recession. From October 2007 to March 2009, the S&P 500 plummeted nearly 57% and it took more than five years for the index to recover. But the share of Americans with...

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The Definitive Guide To Investing For The Long Run

Written by Lance Roberts, Michael Lebowitz, CFA and John Coumarianos, M.S. of Real Investment Advice This complete set of articles discusses the fallacies of always owning stocks for the long run (aka “buy and hold” and passive strategies). Given markets cycle over time, it is important to understand how markets and investing actually work, the impact on your wealth, and what you can do about it. This series of articles will cover the following key points: “Buy and Hold,” and other passive...

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After Two Of The Greatest Bull Markets In U.S. History, Why Are Boomers So Broke?

Last week, Jeff Desjardins of Visual Capitalist wrote in a post: “While it’s true that putting your money on the line is never easy the historical record of the stock market is virtually irrefutable: U.S. markets have consistently performed over long holding periods, even going back to the 19th century.” This goes back to Wall Street’s suggestion of “buy and holding” investments because over 10- and 20-year holding periods, investors always win. There are two major problems with this myth....

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Tax Cuts A Year Later – Did They Deliver As Promised?

Leading up to and following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Trump Tax Cuts) I wrote a lot of analysis on the fallacy of tax cuts, why tax cuts wouldn’t change corporate behavior, and why tax cuts are an ineffective method of improving economic growth. I received a lot of push back on my views then the “mainstream” analysis was the tax cuts would jump start economic growth. Of course, with 2017’s Q1 economic growth coming in at a meager 0.7% annualized, it would certainly seem to be...

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The “There Is No Recession In Sight” Chartbook

Yesterday, Michael Lebowitz wrote an interesting piece discussing the “yield curve” and the message it is sending. To wit: “Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Given the fact that an inversion of the 2s/10s Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession over the last forty years, it is no wonder that the topic grows in stature as the difference between the 2-year Treasury...

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Yesterday’s Perfect Recession Warning May Be Failing You

Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve.  Given the fact that an inversion of the 2s/10s Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession over the last forty years, it is no wonder that the topic grows in stature as the difference between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury yield approaches zero. Unfortunately, much of the discussion on the yield curve seems to...

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MMT And Its Fictional Discipline

“That is some crazy talk” – Bill Gates on the topic of MMT In our article, MMT Sounds Great in Theory… But, we dove into the latest and greatest of economic thinking, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This theory is crucially important for investors and citizens to understand as its popularity is spreading like wildfire. The theory promises to be a strong force in the coming election and a challenge to the popular Keynesian policies that are widely adhered to by most governments and central...

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