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Tag Archives: exports

Weekly Market Pulse: Who’s The Boss?

I told you last week that there were strange things going on in the labor market but I had no idea how much of an understatement that really was. Much of last week’s economic focus was on the inflation report but I think the JOLTS report may turn out to be more significant. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over year but that wasn’t unexpected. It wasn’t all about base effects either, as our Jeff Snider pointed out. The bond market reaction to the CPI report was not as...

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Inflation Or Deflation, China Or US Goods?

For the month of May 2021, China’s General Administration of Customs believes the total US$ value of exports exiting that country was an impressive-sounding $263.9 billion. Compared to the US$ value of exports sent abroad in May 2020, this was a 27.9% increase. But base effects; exports in May 2020 had been a little more than 3% below those in May 2019. The 2-year change, therefore, a less inspired 11.1% compounded.This suggests China’s vast export sector has been bumped up no more than it...

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5/6/21: Ireland PMIs for May: Booming Growth and Inflation Signals

 Both inflationary pressures and economic activity indicators are going through the roof in May, signaling a roaring run for 2Q 2021 growth. Manufacturing PMI for Ireland is up at 64.1 in May, compared to 60.8 in April. This is a historical high for the series, for the second month in a row.Services PMI for Ireland moved up from April's 57.7 to May reading of 62.1. This marks third consecutive month of above 50 readings, with all of these being statistically above 50.0 line. Construction...

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10/5/21: Ireland PMIs for April: Rapid Growth and Inflation Signals

Ireland's PMIs have accelerated across all two key sectors of Services and Manufacturing in April, while Construction Sector continued to post declining activity (through mid-April).Irish Manufacturing PMI rose from 57.1 in March to 60.8 in April as larger multinationals boosted their activities and increased pass-through for inflation. This marks third consecutive month of increasing PMIs for the sector. Meanwhile, Irish Services PMI rose from 54.6 in March to 57.7 in April, marking second...

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Real Dollar ‘Privilege’ On Display (again)

Twenty-fifteen was an important yet completely misunderstood year. The Fed was going to have to become hawkish, according to its models, yet oil prices crashed and the dollar continued to rise. Both of those things were described as “transitory” by Janet Yellen, and that they were helpful or positive (rising dollar means cleanest dirty shirt!), but domestically American policymakers’ clear lack of conviction and courage about that rate hike regime showed otherwise. It wouldn’t be until...

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7/4/21: Ireland PMIs for March: Growth and Inflation Pressures

Ireland PMIs for 1Q 2021 are out this week, so let's take a closer look at monthly activity data. March services PMI came in at a surprising 54.6 - up on 41.2 in February and 36.2 in January. Given the country is in a phase 5 lockdown, and there has been little change on that in recent months, the new reading is a bizarre one. Per Markit: "Three out of four monitored sub-sectors registered higher business activity in March. The strongest rate of expansion was in Financial Services, followed...

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Moving The Bird Back Into Its (Old) Cage

The number illusion is a logical fallacy of sorts, an appeal to the authority of what looks like objectivity. You can’t argue with math. While that’s true, in social sciences there is the continued absence of real proofs which dominate the hard sciences. Newtonian physics works as a worldview because the numbers throughout history have always checked out.When an Economist uses numbers, you have to check out all the assumptions behind them – because there are so many. It is a form of...

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China’s 1st 15-year Xi-athon

According to one published study, the livestock population in China almost tripled in the three decades between 1980 and 2010. Not only that, the primary use of all those animals changed drastically, too. Prior, the backwards agrarian economy of the hardcore Maoist’s day didn’t eat its ox and cattle, rather such beasts of burden were used for the manual power they could provide in addition to the compost component they expelled out their back end while they worked.But as China...

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Is There Enough?

It’s just not fast enough. And with the labor market spitting out numbers across a broad economic cross-section that look increasingly tired suggesting an economy running out of momentum, there’s the added urgency of time. Late summer figures still aren’t close to where they need to be even though when you view them in isolation they can look tremendous.Start with PMI’s, a bunch of them from last week and early this week. Many are the highest in many months, years for quite a few. But...

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26/8/20: Germany’s Exports Expectations: Some Bad News

 ifo Institute's latest exports expectations for Germany are out and the data is quite interesting:Firstly, expectations moderated in August, compared to July, although on balance, there are still more positive sentiment responders as opposed to the negative ones. This moderation is surprising, because of the sharpness of prior COVID19-related collapse and because August saw more global relaxation of COVID19 restrictions. Secondly, it appears that expectations for exports growth are now...

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