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Tag Archives: Europe

Brexit: David Frost’s Bluster Can’t Wish Away the Northern Ireland Protocol

Yves here. I am behind in providing an update on the state of Brexit, now that the UK has officially gotten stroppy over the Northern Ireland protocol and the EU has formulated some fixed. But this openDemocracy piece provides a good overview of the issues in play, especially the UK’s belief that it holds a trump card in its threat to trigger an Article 16 dispute. Regular readers will note that the UK, true to form, is overplaying its hand. By George Peretz, a queen’s counsel in England and...

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Until This Changes, Forget Inflation: Banks Bought Epic Amounts of Safe, Liquid Assets in H1 ’21

The first half of 2021 was inundated with government helicopters, more QE’s, and then CPI’s put up with guarantees the “inflation” was going to continue for a long time. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s often hapless CEO, proudly declared US Treasuries beyond the touch of any 10-foot pole. With the economy on fire, he “reasoned”, who would ever want safe and liquid instruments?The Federal Reserve, ironically, since Mr. Dimon is always on the Fed’s side, provides us with a more than partial answer....

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Mzukisi Qobo: The Old Mantra About Growth Has Reached Exhaustion

Yves here. This is a very informative discussion, both on how South Africa and its neighbors have responded to Covid, and even more important, how they are thinking about development in light of resource pressures and relocalization. I suspect you’ll find this talk with Mzukisi Qobo to be far more insightful and nuanced than what you encounter from the overwhelming majority of first world economists. By Folashadé Soulé, Advisor, Commission on Global Economic Transformation and Senior Research...

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The Neverending Brexit: Flailing Johnson Set to Try to Renege on Commitment to Respect Good Friday Agreement

Our Brexit brain trust (Clive, Colonel Smithers, David, PlutoniumKun and vlade) have had an extended and very informative discussion of an impending Brexit spat in the Telegraph, over the unresolved sore point of the Northern Ireland protocol, as in the irritant of the promise to respect the Good Friday Agreement. Even though they have important nuances in their views, they are largely on the same page and I hope to give a recap that doesn’t offend any of them. Note that this sighting may...

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The Other Side of Sliding Commodities; Was There Ever ‘Too Many’ Goods?

Spend even a modest amount of time on the subject, and the distinct impression you are left with is that American ports and railyards are dealing with a truly epic jam because the economy has been so good there’s just too many goods for anyone to reasonably handle. Juiced by the federal government’s helicopters, Americans spent, spent some more, and then went back to their computers and gave Amazon – therefore overseas producers – even more of that borrowed Uncle Sam cash. At the very same...

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Tapering Or Calibrating, The Lady’s Not Inflating

We’ve got one central bank over here in America which appears as if its members can’t wait to “taper”, bringing up both the topic and using that particular word as much as possible. Jay Powell’s Federal Reserve obviously intends to buoy confidence by projecting as much when it does cut back on the pace of its (irrelevant) QE6. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe’s central bank will be technically be doing the same thing likely at the same time. Except, Christine Lagarde said early...

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One For New Orders, Several More Against

New orders, new orders, new orders. That’s the substance of the inventory cycle. A lot more of them, the upswing in it can remain intact keeping the global manufacturing economy humming along. Should they start to scale back and then, maybe at some point, decline, this unusual supply-constraint trend transitions toward a more historical inventory cycle on the downturn. As noted earlier this week, in the US a few regional Fed manufacturing surveys hinted at this latter. Today, the ISM and...

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What’s Next?

As Q3 winds down and Q4 begins, the broad investment climate is being shaped by the turning of the monetary cycle.  Norway was the first, and New Zealand will be next.  It is not so much that these moves will force others to do the same. Instead, the Norges Bank and the RBNZ are simply ahead of the others.  Although there is speculation that the Bank of England can move before the end of the year, it seems a stretch.  The market feels increasingly confident that the Bank of Canada will raise...

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A Football World Cup Every Two Years? An Expert Runs the Numbers

By Christina Philippou, Principal Lecturer, Accounting and Financial Management, University of Portsmouth. Originally published at The Conversation. In May 2021, Fifa began exploring the idea of holding a men’s football World Cup every two years instead of four. Further plans have since been unveiled, and the proposal, which originally came from Saudi Arabia, has received support from some international organisations. Fifa’s chief of global football development and former Arsenal manager...

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18 Vaccine Experts, Including Top FDA Scientists, Publish Review in The Lancet Saying Current Evidence Doesn’t Support Need for COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for the Fully Vaccinated

By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. Eighteen international vaccine experts published a review in The Lancet yesterday, Considerations in boosting COVID-19 vaccine immune responses, saying current evidence does not support a need for boosters for the fully vaccinated general population at this time.  The authors include Philip Krause and Marion Gruber, two top Food and Drug...

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