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Tag Archives: EUR

The Dollar’s Technical Condition Remains Vulnerable

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week, which given the softer than expected inflation, retail sales data, and industrial output figures, coupled with the poor technical backdrop, could be a signal that its decline in recent months has run its course.    The dollar-bloc continued its advance, led by the Australian dollar's nearly 2% gain.   Higher commodity prices (the sixth weekly advance for the CRB Index in the last eight week) may have helped.  The persistent...

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Greenback Steadies Against Majors, but Firmer vs EM After MAS Surprise

After initially extending its recent recovery gains against the major currencies, the US dollar began consolidating in the European morning.  An unexpected shift by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, replacing a modest and gradual currency appreciation with a more neutral stance, coupled with softer oil prices and weaker European equities, appears to have weighed on emerging market currencies. Asian equities extended their rally, with the Nikkei gaining 3.25% and the Shanghai...

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US Dollar Comes Back Bid

The US dollar is well bid in the Europe and is poised to start the North American session with the wind to its back.  Despite firmer equity and industrial metal prices, most emerging market currencies are also succumbing to the rebounding greenback.   The euro has yet to convincingly breakout of the range that has confined it this month.  That would require a break of the $1.1300 area.  However, as we have noted the two-year interest rate differential between the US and Germany, which...

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Great Graphic: Nonperforming Loans, Another Divergence

 Early in the financial crisis, the US forced all large banks to take an infusion of capital.  This helped put a floor under the US financial system.  Regulators and stakeholders encouraged US banks to address the significant nonperforming loan problem.   The eurozone banking woes persist.  Before the weekend, the shares of the one the largest banks was trading at 25 -year lows.  The problem with nonperforming loans though is largely concentrated in the periphery.  Italy is moving to...

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Specs Shift to Net Long Canadian Dollar and Set New Record Gross Long Yen

Speculators in the futures market were not particularly active in Commitment of Traders reporting week ending April 5.  There was only one gross position adjustment which we regard as significant (defined as a 10k contract change), and that was in the yen.   Yen bulls extended their gross long position by 13.3k contract to new record of 98.1k contracts.   However, the bears are beginning to get itchy and have sold into the yen gains for the second consecutive week.  The gross short yen...

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Little Technical Evidence that Greenback’s Slump is Over

Although there is no convincing technical evidence that dollar's retreat in Q1 is over, we suspect it is nearly complete.  We will be especially sensitive to reversal patterns, divergences with technical indicators, and other signs that the move is exhausted. The fundamental economic driver of our medium term constructive outlook for the US dollar, the divergence of monetary policy between the major central banks, relative health of the financial sector, and absorption of capacity,...

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Greenback Finds A Little Traction

The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days.  There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.   First, the API oil inventory estimate showed an unexpected fall of 4.3 mln barrels.  An increase of half the magnitude was expected.  The DOE estimate, which is considered more reliable, will be one of the North American highlights today.  Second, and also supporting the oil complex...

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Four Keys to The Week Ahead

There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market equity index put in its low on January 20, as did the CRB Index.  The price of oil appeared to bottom then as well, but it retested the lows in mid-February and...

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A contrarian perspective on the short euro trade

As the euro continues to drift lower, it has become the accepted wisdom that we are headed for parity with the dollar. Source: barchart.com Indeed it is widely expected that the ECB will expand its securities buying program in size, duration and scope (the ECB has been exploring buying municipal bonds for example). The central bank is also expected to cut the benchmark rates, pushing deeper into negative territory. The chart below shows the Euribor futures trading significantly above par...

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