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Tag Archives: equity markets

23/2/20: The ‘Fundamentals’ of the Financial Markets Are Hardly Changed by the COVID2019, So Far…

An informative chart via Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner on the Global equity markets impact of the continuously evolving threat of the nCov-2019 or #COVID2019 virus epidemic: Looks not quite as dire as it might sound, folks. Global equities lost some $470 billion worth of market value this week.  Which is 0.537% of the market cap at the start of the week  The market is still up more than 3 percent year to date The market is massively up on 2020 to date lowest point (+3.7 percent)...

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The 2017/18 melt-up: Then and now

Mid-week market update: The stock market is over-extended. I warned on the weekend about the market’s nosebleed valuation (see Priced for perfection). The market’s forward P/E ratio of 18.4 matched the levels last seen at the 2017/18 market melt-up.  But there are some crucial differences between the last melt-up episode and the one today.  Crucial differences One crucial difference is each rally was sparked by different fundamentals. As the chart below shows, the last melt-up...

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Priced for perfection

I have been in the habit of writing a weekend publication consisting of a relatively long research piece combined with a tactical trading commentary, which has at times been very long. As an experiment, I am splitting the two up. Please let me know if you prefer the format of two shorter posts, or a combined longer publication. As the market advanced to another fresh high, the forward P/E rose to 18.4, which roughly matches the level last seen at the melt-up high of early 2018.  From...

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Cyclical global recovery: Easy come, easy go?

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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Could this FOMO surge be a mirage?

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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How far can stock prices rise?

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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An upcoming seismic shift in factor returns

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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The stealth decoupling sneaking up on portfolios

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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A moment of truth for the stock market

No, the “moment of truth” in the title has nothing to do with the preliminary trade deal announced by Trump last Friday. I have been showing concerns for some time about the market`s valuation. Based on Friday`s close, the market was trading at a forward P/E ratio of 16.9, which is above its 5-year average of 16.6 and 10-year average of 14.9.  If stock prices were to advance from current levels, the E in the P/E ratio has to improve. Earnings Season starts in earnest this week as the...

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Why I am cautious on US equities

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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