Tuesday , April 20 2021
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Tag Archives: equities

Fed Heads Talking 4 Percent Inflation

Fed's Kashkari says he would not panic if he saw a 4% inflation rate-BBG — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) April 8, 2021 The bond market might, however, assuming Kashkari’s  quote is true. We are reposting a piece, which we recieved tremendous pushback when it was posted.   Now the Fed Heads are climbing aboard.  NK is one of the smartest but a bit of an opportunist, in our opinion. Wall Street’s “everything is bullish” mantra is why the U.S. stock market cap to GDP is now close 200...

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Ready For 4 Percent CPI By Mid-Year?

Starting to hear lots of talk about inflation these days, something we have been seeing in the pipeline for the past six months. Input price inflation accelerated to a near-decade high in January. Costs increased to the greatest extent since April 2011, reflecting stronger rises in both the manufacturing and service sectors. This was partly passed on to clients in the form of higher charges, the main factor underlying the steepest rise in output prices for 27 months. – JPMo Global PMI,...

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Comfortably Numb: Are We There Yet?

Almost there, baby?  Markets certainly are. OKJust a little pinprickThere’ll be no more aaaaaaaah!But you may feel a little sick – Pink Floyd Hard to say what the pinprick will be.  My bet is higher inflation and higher interest rates.    On the other hand, it could be a form of Structured Criticality.  Just one more grain of sand will be all it takes to trigger the avalanche. Structured criticality is a property of complex systems in...

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The Moment I Knew America Was In Trouble

We are reposting a piece from June 1st as we were very concerned about the stability of the American Street and where the country was headed.  We were worried about a future full of “peril,” and after the events of last Wednesday, some of which illustrated below,  the times are now pretty damn perilous. The mob came to hang the Vice President.   [embedded content] Originally Posted on June 1, 2020 The Conversation:  When I Knew America Was In Deep Shit  In early February,  I drove to...

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Inflation Cometh And So Is A Big Market Correction

It was hilarious, no, sad actually, to see a piece last week by some market strategist mocking the “inflation truthers.”   Kind of like “election truthers?” Of course, he surely knows the one thing that can knock the markets on their ass and keep them down is accelerating inflation. Guess what, folks?  It’s here. I just finished reading through at least 50 country PMIs (purchasing manager index) and almost all report accelerating inflation due to supply shocks and higher demand.  It’s...

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Welcome to 2021, Y’all!

By Carol K. Happy New Year, everyone!  I hope everyone had a happy and relaxing holiday season – or as happy as can be in the midst of a global pandemic.  I’ve been fighting a bout of pneumonia and was officially diagnosed with “The Covid” (as it’s known in my neck of the woods) last week. I am blessed in having access to a fantastic team of doctors and my family taking excellent care of me.  After the holiday hiatus, I was eagerly anticipating getting back to work in my home...

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At Least Some Things Never Change

With the markets unmoored from historical reality (along with half the country, by the way) and valuations at historic and unprecedented extremes, it’s refreshing to see some things don’t change, such as the painful short squeeze taking place in the 50 most shorted stocks. We don’t miss those days, not one bit.  So painful to be caught in a nutcracking short squeeze. Market valuations do not regress to their means until they do.  And they will.  Someday. Our favorite stock market...

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Now What?

The dollar fell hard last week.  After several failed attempts, it broke below JPY104 for the first time in eight months.  Despite Beijing's ostensible efforts to moderate the yuan's upside pressure through various administrative policy adjustments, it reached new two-year highs.  The Mexican peso, the second most actively traded emerging market currency after the yuan, returned to levels not seen since the March chaos.  The Dollar Index fell from the upper end of its range (above 94.00)...

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