Tag Archive: EMU
US Employment Data to Set Dollar’s Course
Overview: The
focus is squarely on the US employment report. At the risk of oversimplifying,
given the position adjustment in the past 48 hours, a solid report can see the
greenback recover, while a disappointing report will likely see it deepen the
correction of the rally that began with the February jobs report. The dollar
recovered in the North American afternoon yesterday and many observers
attributed it to the bevy of Fed comments. Yet, the...
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Greenback Losses Extended, but Look for Consolidation in North America
Overview: The softer-than-expected ISM services report caught the market leaning the wrong way. Although interest rates had a muted reaction, the dollar was sold. In fact, the Dollar Index saw its second-biggest loss of the year, falling by about 0.50%. ISM services prices paid increases moderated to their slowest since March 2020. Supplier deliveries improved to their best since 2009, suggesting a supply chain improvement. Still, the Fed funds...
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Rate Adjustment Underpins Greenback
Overview: The adjustment to US interest rates
continues and this helps underpin the US dollar. The 10-year yield rose to
4.40% yesterday, the highest it has been since last November. It is trading
4.34%-4.38% today. The two-year yield is firm though holding below the Q1 high
set last month near 4.75%. This week, for the first time since last October,
the Fed funds futures do not have at least a quarter point cut discounted for
July. As recently as...
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Gold, Oil, and Interest Rates Rise
Overview: The market put more weight on the rise in
the US ISM manufacturing survey than the downward revision to the manufacturing
PMI and the unexpected back-to-back decline in construction spending. US rates
shot up and lifted the greenback. The Dollar Index made a new high for the
year, a little above 105, which had been anticipated by the new lows recorded
by the Bannockburn
World Currency Index (a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of...
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Heightened Threat of Japanese Intervention Pushes Greenback Away from JPY152
Overview: The dollar neared JPY152, setting a new
34-year high. This appeared to spur a senior official meeting in Tokyo,
ostensibly to talk about the response. Previously, we suggested that Friday,
when most markets outside of Asia will be closed, could provide an interesting
opportunity for intervention. The implicit threat was enough to take the dollar
to JPY151.10 in the European morning. Most of the G10 currencies are softer
against the dollar...
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Market Hears a Dovish Fed and Sells the Greenback
Overview: The Federal Reserve triggered a dollar
sell-off yesterday and follow-through selling was seen in Asia before
profit-taking emerged. That created a new dollar selling opportunity in early European
turnover. The FOMC revised up this year's growth forecast, shaved the
unemployment projection, and while maintaining the PCE deflator forecast, and
the median dot remained for three cuts this year. The soft-landing scenario was
underscored and...
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Ueda’s Comments Weigh on Yen as the Market Awaits US CPI
Overview: The US CPI has become one of the most important high-frequency economic reports for the capital markets. The dollar is going into the report narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda about the weakness in consumption of non-durable goods was seen by some as reducing the likelihood of a change in policy next week.
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Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges
(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days. Check out the March monthly here. Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand
dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little
changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base
effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...
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Narrowly Mixed Dollar to Start the Big Week for Europe and North America
Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies to begin the week that features a Bank of Canada and ECB meetings, US jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, and US President Biden's State of the Union address.
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Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08
Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover.
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Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies
The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.
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Weak US Durable Goods may Herald Pullback in Capex
Most of the G10 currencies are trading quietly in narrow ranges today. After a slightly firmer than expected national CPI reading, which still moderated, and a pullback in US yields, the Japanese yen is the strongest of the major currencies.
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Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America
Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The
dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European
currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central
European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable
exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan
is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last
week, more often...
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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America
Overview: Amid a light news stream,
the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside
the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We
note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the
five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the
other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near
JPY150.90. Emerging market...
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Risk On, Dollar Sold
Overview: The
post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on
activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's
CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the
open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than
0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are
poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...
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China’s CSI 300 Rises for Seventh Consecutive Session and Offshore Yuan Strengthens for the Sixth Session
Overview: The dollar is trading quietly
after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the
Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have
dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European
currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is
firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North
American session features minutes...
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China Returns, the US is on Holiday, and the Dollar Consolidates
Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day,
while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland
stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly
softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss
franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market
currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The
Mexican peso's and...
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Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses
Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected
January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the
Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher,
and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their
losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week
slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did,
and...
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The Greenback is in Narrow Ranges to Start the Week
Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The
Lunar New Year holiday shut most Asian markets. That, coupled with the light
news in Europe, have served to keep the dollar in narrow ranges against the G10
currencies. The Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and Japanese yen are posting
minor gains against the greenback. The New Zealand dollar, which was strongest
major currency last week (1.4%) is off by almost 0.5% today, making it the
weakest...
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Sterling Moves Back into Previous Trading Range, but will it Hold?
Overview: The dollar is trading with a
slightly heavier bias as some of its recent gains are pared. Sterling has moved
back into the $1.26-$1.28 trading range that dominated since the middle of last
December until the start of this week. The euro is also trading a little firmer
despite another large drop in German industrial output (-1.6%). The Japanese
yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone are the notable exceptions with a softer profile....
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