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Tag Archives: Employment

Just In Time For Labor Day: It’s Not Payrolls Missing The Mark By Such A Wide Margin

It was a highly curious change in the shape of the labor force. Beginning October 2015 and lasting until March 2016, for six months Americans came flooding back into the labor market. Or, so they said. When the BLS’s various surveyors working on the Current Population Survey (known as the Household Survey) came calling for answers each month, all of a sudden, a whole lot more previously out of the workforce declared themselves back in.They didn’t all find jobs; hardly any of them would....

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Yes And No Taper To Labor (and inflation)

It doesn’t really make much sense, does it? If you stop and think about it for more than a quick second, this notion of a labor shortage doesn’t get past the smell test. The economy overall is, we hear, booming. Really booming. And it’s booming in a way that has the labor market healing far faster than thought not long ago (setting aside, for now, how we’ve heard this a few times before). So fast, even the cautious Jay Powell is rethinking his models into tapering his QE.Yet, American...

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Illusion of Control

Jerome Powell delivered his long anticipated speech at Jackson Hole last week. Well actually, I have no idea if he was actually in Jackson Hole since the speech was delivered electronically, another victim of the delta variant. The virus itself rated barely a mention in Mr. Powell’s remarks and I think that is probably as it should be. There has been some economic impact from the recent virus surge but nothing like previous versions. COVID may not be over, but we are learning to live...

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One For Waller’s Taper Table

Score one big one for Governor Waller’s taper checklist. This particular FOMC member had, just a few days ago, speculated on continued large gains in US payrolls. A couple more on top of the last one, that being June, and it was his position the Federal Reserve would have to begin to seriously consider shifting course. He doesn’t mean to say the existing interpretation of recent US (only) consumer price data is wrong, rather it would be superseded by recovery events. In the case of...

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ISM’s and ADP’s, So Many Letters Too Few Specific Numbers

One good, one bad and by the end more the latter since the former simply bucked the trend, almost alone as an outlier (among outliers). The day started out with European deflationary pressures putting a spike on UST and related sovereign bond prices then quickly substantiated when ADP reported (830am EDT) its estimates for private payrolls during July (this was the bad).Following an hour and a half later (10am EDT) the ISM released its figures for the non-manufacturing (services) sectors...

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Do Rising ‘Global’ Growth Concerns Include An Already *Slowing* US Economy?

Global factors, meaning that the wave of significantly higher deflationary potential (therefore, diminishing inflationary chances which were never good to begin with) in global bond yields the past five months have seemingly focused on troubles brewing outside the US. Overseas turmoil, it was called back in 2015, leaving by default a picture of relative American strength and harmony.The rest of the world’s economic system hasn’t really come back much, and there’s much to suggest we’ve...

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ISM’s Nasty Little Surprise Isn’t Actually A Surprise

Completing the monthly cycle, the ISM released its estimates for non-manufacturing in the US during the month of June 2021. The headline index dropped nearly four points, more than expected. From 64.0 in May, at 60.1 while still quite high it’s the implication of being the lowest in four months which got so much attention. Consistent with IHS Markit’s estimates as well as the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI released last week, there are growing (confirmed) concerns that early on in Q2 2021 that...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Contrasts & Contradictions

Six months ago, the US was still reporting 226K new cases of COVID a day, a rate that would peak in the first half of January at over 300k. Daily deaths also peaked in those first two weeks of the new year at over 4000. The economy was still struggling to recover, most restaurants surviving on takeout traffic, and no one was even talking about going back to the office. The S&P 500 was nearly 600 points lower and the 10-year Treasury was yielding less than 1%. The 2-year note was about...

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Fed Minutes may Temper Hawkish Dots

The second half is getting underway.  Five events should be on your radar screen, but do not lose sight of the broader context.  This year, the dollar has often experienced near-term trend changes around the turn of the month and the US jobs report.  Consider the Dollar Index, albeit an imperfect metric.  The low for the year was recorded three days into January. It put in a high in early February and bottomed two days before the end of the month. The peak so far for the year was recorded on...

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No Inflation In These Payrolls

Payrolls for the month of June were a mixed bag, in that the payroll data was better than expected at the same time nothing else was. After a couple months of ho-hum gains for the Establishment Survey, government hiring (mostly) boosted the latest monthly figure to +853,000. This brings the 6-month average up to +543,000, which is either really good and pointing to a reopening economy or not nearly enough because it doesn’t point to anything more than a reopening economy.Right away,...

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