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Home / Tag Archives: Emerging Markets

Tag Archives: Emerging Markets

2/7/19: Earnings and Market Valuations: Equity PEs

While P/E ratios are gamable and informationally highly restrictive, the metric is still a useful one when considering as to how expensive/cheap equity can be. Here is the latest chart via @topdowncharts showing P/E ratios based on 10 year average earnings (smoother series, but the long average is even less informationally rich than pure P/Es): Which makes:U.S. markets overvalued in excess of 2006-2007 peaks, but less than in the blowout bubble of the dot.com era; Developed markets...

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A life of boom and bust: Can Argentina break the cycle?

A century ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world. But crisis after crisis has earned it the dubious distinction of being the only nation ever to regress to developing country status. With hyperinflation, devaluations and IMF bailouts now facts of life, we meet the people who have lived through a major economic crisis roughly once every decade – including a taxi driver who lost everything in the 2001 crisis and now earns more money selling antiques. We also...

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Why 2011

The eurodollar era saw not one but two credit bubbles. The first has been studied to death, though almost always getting it wrong. The Great Financial Crisis has been laid at the doorstep of subprime, a bunch of greedy Wall Street bankers insufficiently regulated to have not known any better. That was just a symptom of the first. The housing bubble itself was more than housing. What was going on in the shadows wasn’t bounded by national borders or geography. Some called it “hot money”, to...

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As See On Forbes: Turkey’s Bubble Is Bursting

As seen on Forbes by RealInvestmentAdvice.com’s Jesse Colombo: “Turkey’s Bubble Is Bursting.” For the past five years, I’ve been warning about a dangerous credit bubble that has been developing in Turkey’s economy. Ultra-low interest rates led to a borrowing binge that created an artificial economic boom that most people thought was a legitimate, sustainable boom. Since the summer of 2018, however, Turkey’s central bank was forced to raise interest rates dramatically to stem the sharp...

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Ten Plus Plus Great Weekend Reads – March 15

Markets Active investors are depressed, but not depressed enough – FT Over his long and illustrious career, Mr Buffett has beaten the market handily, but over the past 10 years, the return of Berkshire Hathaway shares is 274 per cent. Which looks impressive until you consider the S&P 500 has returned 273 per cent.  – FT Liquidity is the scary absentee in stocks’ rebound – FT The Flowless Stock Recovery Economics You Never Know When a Recession Will Sneak Up on – NY Times...

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An EM warning

avFor several months, the BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that global institutions have been piling into emerging market equities. The purchase of EM equities has been a smart move, as they have been leading the market upwards. However, their time in a leadership role may be coming to an end owing to a series of disappointments. EM started to top out against the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) in early February, and relative performance has been rolling over ever since....

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Venezuela: Failed Petrostate & The Roosevelt Corollary

Interesting piece in The Hill yesterday on Venezuela by former U.S. Senator Judd Gregg, Venezuela, the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary.   A must read for those interested in all things Vennie. He refers to the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which originated in the Venezuela debt default before last, a subject of our recent post,  Venezuela, Debt, and Gunboat Diplomacy 2.0. The Roosevelt Corollary of December 1904 stated that the United States would intervene as...

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China Is Unlikely To Become The World’s Largest Economy Anytime Soon

Business Insider published a piece this week called “China’s hopes of becoming the world’s largest economy are hitting a major roadblock“: China’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in nearly three decades, and some economists say the worst is yet to come.Growth potential in China is expected to slow to 5.5% from the current level of 6.5% between 2021 and 2025, according to new estimates from analysts at JPMorgan. That could fall to 4.5% by 2030, a pace that would make it difficult to...

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