Wednesday , April 1 2020
Home / Tag Archives: Economy

Tag Archives: Economy

China’s Back!

The Washington Post began this week by noting how the US economy seems to have lost its purported zip just when it needed that vitality the most. Never missing a chance to take a partisan swipe, of course, still there’s quite a lot of truth behind the charge. An actual economic boom produces cushion, enough of one that President Trump and his administration may have been counting on it when opting for full-blown shutdown. The coronavirus recession is exposing how the economy was not strong...

Read More »

What Is The Fed’s New FIMA? The Potential For A SHADOW Shadow Run Is Very Real

It’s another day ending in “y”, therefore there must be some new liquidity scheme being announced by the Federal Reserve. For a crisis that many seem confident has been put in the past, the optimists still are going to have to factor that even US central bankers feel they have to keep pulling repo rabbits out of their…somewhere. Today it is FIMA. Not just FIMA but the FIMA Repo Facility! The abbreviation stands for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities which once more uncomfortably...

Read More »

Technically Speaking: 5-Questions Bulls Need To Answer Now.

In last Tuesday’s Technically Speaking post, I stated: “From a purely technical basis, the extreme downside extension, and potential selling exhaustion, has set the markets up for a fairly strong reflexive bounce. This is where fun with math comes in. As shown in the chart below, after a 35% decline in the markets from the previous highs, a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would encompass a 20% advance. Such an advance will ‘lure’ investors back into the market, thinking the ‘bear...

Read More »

(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas

India like many emerging market countries around the world holds an enormous stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest weekly calculation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, that total was a bit less than half a trillion. While it sounds impressive, when the month began the balance was much closer to that mark. Over the last several crisis-filled weeks, officials in India have been fighting against a “sudden” and shocking plummet in...

Read More »

A Marathon, Not A Sprint

Stocks rose last week, a breathtaking, nearly 20% run off the recent lows before a pullback Friday trimmed the gain for the week to about 11%. That was certainly helpful but investors would be well-advised not to get too excited. This is what bear market rallies look like. They come out of nowhere, they run much further than anyone thinks they should and, more than anything, they engender hope; hope that the bear is finally over, that policymakers have finally pulled the right lever to right...

Read More »

Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules For Now (Full Report)

Bull Market? No, The Bear Still Rules MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha 2020 Investment Summit – April 2nd. The “2020 SOCIALLY DISTANT INVESTMENT SUMMIT” is coming on Thursday, April 2nd. Click the link below to receive an email with a special “invitation only” link when the summit goes “live.” (Current newsletter subscribers are already registered.) Catch Up On...

Read More »

Vital Lessons Still Not Learned: Be Careful About GFC2

It’s one of those crisis-level-of-illiquidity things that if you heard about it in normal times it would make you shake your head in disbelief. During a full-blown meltdown maybe it’s not standard stuff, but given the chaotic conditions it doesn’t seem so preposterous, either. Negative convexity is an otherwise benign phenomenon in fixed income that when combined with a lack of liquidity can rip your throat out in a heartbeat. The reason it kills is how it can act like proverbial quicksand;...

Read More »

It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher. As next week’s tally will certainly be. The dislocation is upon us, but that’s no longer our major concern. Having been left no chance to avoid...

Read More »