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Tag Archives: Economy

Why Aren’t Bond Yields Flyin’ Upward? Bidin’ Bond Time Trumps Jay

It’s always something. There’s forever some mystery factor standing in the way. On the topic of inflation, for years it was one “transitory” issue after another. The media, on behalf of the central bankers it holds up as a technocratic ideal, would report these at face value. The more obvious explanation, the argument with all the evidence, just couldn’t be true otherwise it’d collapse the technocracy right down to the ground.And so it was also in the bond market. Inflation and their yields...

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Did The Real Dollar Stand Up?

Back in early June 2018, the Brazilian real was in free-fall (again). Never bothering to explain why or what was happening, the country’s top central banker just gathered the media together in front of him confident in how what he’d say to its members would be reported as fact. As it was. Not just by Brazil’s press, either. Even if what he did say, reading between the lines, was how you, me, and everyone else around the world must be stupid.Yep, stupid. I wrote the very next day:...

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Why Aren’t Bond Yields Flying Higher Globally? Exhibit A: Germany/Europe

Mario Draghi was a very polarizing figure for him to be atop a central bank that has no natural constituency. Sure, there is a European Central Bank but there remain National Central Banks which had retained their own powers and influence following the monetary union. Draghi’s approach rubbed critics the wrong way, a growing legion of them, a lot of times because he simply refused to talk with anyone.Mario would often run to the press to announce his position before even consulting the...

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Before Hume, Before Carnegie

For as long as there have been people, there have been great people who have spent their time thinking about money. For as long as money has existed, the reasons to commit so much to studying its beautiful and horrific effects have been obvious. It’s really only been the last half century when ignorance had become the preferred position.So much for our modern-ness.Going back further than Copernicus’ Monatae cudendae ratio, the ability of money to fascinate and puzzle history’s most luminous...

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2020

The economic data over the last month continued to improve but the breadth of improvement has narrowed. Additionally, while most of the economic data series are still improving, the rate of change, as Jeff pointed out recently, has slowed. I guess that isn’t that surprising as the initial phase of the recovery comes to an end. 2nd quarter was a giant downdraft and 3rd quarter saw an initial rapid climb out the giant hole dug by the shutdowns (an own goal of epic proportions in my mind,...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 28 (Only 1 Part): Bank Reserves & Brent Johnson

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN   iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI   Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza   TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z   Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY   Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ   Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO   Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh   Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB   Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa   SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK  ...

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Bubbles and Balance Sheets, Demanded (Money/Credit) Supply

The term “balance sheet recession” is one that had come up more often a little more than half a decade ago. At the same time everyone at the Fed, especially Bill Dudley, was wondering why QE had kept coming up (way) short of every one of its goals, some of them began to speculate about this other thing. If the Great “Recession” had triggered one, then monetary policy would have looked as helpless as it was looking.What is a balance sheet recession? For one thing, it’s much closer to the...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 27, Part 3: Duck and Cover, The July Consequences

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt...

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Small But Real Progress Carrying The Yen Carry Trade Into the Light

Bill Dudley was a key guy at the Fed for a very long time. It is very important to point this out. Not only did he hold two of the central bank’s most crucial positions, he held them during the institution’s most critical moments. Dudley was Manager of the system’s Open Market Account in August 2007. On the seventh of that particular month, as Desk manager, Bill relayed to the assembled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and their gargantuan staff how “nothing is really imminent”...

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