Wednesday , October 16 2019
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Tag Archives: Economy

Capitalism Is The Worst, Except For All The Rest – Part 3

Part 1 – How Wall Street Destroyed Capitalism Part 2 – The Myths Of “Broken Capitalism” In Part 1, we discussed how “Capitalism” was distorted by Wall Street. In Part 2, we reviewed some of the “myths” of capitalism, which are used to garner “votes” by politicians but are not really true. Most importantly, we discussed the fallacy that “more Government” is the answer in creating equality as it impairs economic opportunity. I want to conclude this series with a discussion on the fallacy of...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Defining Moment for Financial Markets

The economic calendar includes several significant reports.  Housing data on new home starts, retail sales, industrial production, and leading indicators are all on tap.  Fed fans can ponder the Beige Book, anecdotal evidence from each district to provide color at the next FOMC meeting. Earnings season begins, and the Washington news will continue to dominate. It is another week when nearly all of the punditry will be asking the wrong question.  Astute investors should be asking:...

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Trade Deal Done? Is 3300 The Next Stop For The Market? 10-11-19

Trade Deal Done QE, Not QE, But It’s QE Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Trade Deal Done On Thursday and Friday, the market surged on hopes that a “trade deal” was coming to fruition. This was not a surprise to us, as we detailed this outcome two weeks ago: “‘For Trump, he can spin a limited deal as a ‘win’ saying ‘China is caving to his tariffs’ and that he ‘will continue working to get the rest of the...

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Benign Neglect Check

The key has always been the first part of the word rather than the more common focus on the second. A eurodollar is more about the “euro” than the more obvious monetary denomination. Since it began decades before Europe created its common currency, the eurodollar has nothing whatsoever to do with the euro. But those four letters mean absolutely everything. The whole world’s fate remains tied to them. In its earliest days, it was simply called the Continental dollar. For various and perhaps...

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The Inflation Check

After constantly running through what the FOMC gets (very) wrong, let’s give them some credit for what they got right. Though this will end up as a backhanded compliment, still. After having spent all of 2018 forecasting accelerating inflation indices, from around New Year’s Day forward policymakers notably changed their tune. Inflation pressures that were in December 2018 building underneath leading officials to fear a harmful breakout, by January 2019 they were suddenly “muted.” What’s...

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Never Attribute To Malice What Is Easily Explained By Those Attributing Anything To Term Premiums

There will be more opportunities ahead to talk about the not-QE, non-LSAP which as of today still doesn’t have a catchy title. In other words, don’t call it a QE because a QE is an LSAP not an SSAP. The former is a large scale asset purchase plan intended on stimulating the financial system therefore economy. That’s what it intends to do, leaving the issue of what it actually does an open question. The SSAP is what’s coming next. A small scale asset purchase plan whose intent is only to raise...

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The Myths Of “Broken Capitalism” – Part 2

Read Part 1 – The Distortion Of Capitalism By Wall Street In the introduction to this series, we discussed the bit of the history leading us to the outcry against capitalism. As I concluded: “The important point is that ‘capitalism’ isn’t broken, but there is one aspect of the system which has morphed into something no one intended. As you hear candidates promising to ‘eat the rich,’ remember ‘political narratives’ designed to win votes is not always representative of what is best for you in...

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From JOLTS Series Shift To Series of Rate Cuts

I’ve said all along that they would be dragged into them kicking and screaming. After all, the Federal Reserve undertook its last rate hike in December 2018 – just as the markets were making clear he was completely mistaken in his view of the economy. What followed was the ridiculous “Fed pause” which pretty much everyone outside of the central bank and the Economics profession knew wasn’t the end of it. You know the story. When he finally gave in at the end of July, the Federal Reserve...

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The Scientism of Trade Wars

One year ago, last October, the IMF published the update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2018. Like many, the organization began to talk more about trade wars and protectionism. It had become a topic of conversation more than concern. Couched as only downside risks, the IMF still didn’t think the fuss would amount to all that much. Especially not with world’s economy roaring under globally synchronized growth. Even though there were warning signs already by then, the idea was that the...

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Head Faking In The Empty Zoo: Powell Expands The Balance Sheet (Again)

They remain just as confused as Richard Fisher once was. Back in ’13 while QE3 was still relatively young and QE4 (yes, there were four) practically brand new, the former President of the Dallas Fed worried all those bank reserves had amounted to nothing more than a monetary head fake. In 2011, Ben Bernanke had admitted basically the same thing. But who was falling for it? The stock market, sure. Investors on Wall Street are still betting as if it will work any day now. The financial media,...

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