Friday , October 22 2021
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Tag Archives: Economy

While The Fed Chases The Unemployment Rate, TIC’s Eurodollar Deflation Case Is Unusually Unambiguous

The Chinese yuan had traded in a curiously narrow range ever since mid-June. Stuck, it seemed, between 6.50 at the bottom and around 6.45 ceiling, the lack of movement in either direction raised suspicions of concerted official effort. China’s officials, obviously, certainly not those from the Federal Reserve who spend all their time scouring drug reports and benefits cliffs so as to try to legitimize the unemployment rate rather than pay any mind whatsoever to dollars and global money.On...

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Retracing The Yield Gap For The Unemployment Rate Isn’t The Same Thing

Thomas Barkin is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District branch headquartered in Richmond. Beginning the job during the tumultuous and confusing 2018 (for those wherever at the Fed), Barkin in 2021 is and has been a voting FOMC member. Whether he is judged a “hawk”, “dove”, or some other kind of feathering maniac I’d leave to the mainstream’s infatuation with Greenspan and Volcker legends. It isn’t actually important.On the contrary, the flattening yield curve particularly...

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The Curve Is Missing Something Big

What would it look like if the Treasury market was forced into a cross between 2013 and 2018? I think it might be something like late 2021. Before getting to that, however, we have to get through the business of decoding the yield curve since Economics and the financial media have done such a thorough job of getting it entirely wrong (see: Greenspan below). And before we can even do that, some recent housekeeping at the front of the curve where bill lives. Treasury bills have been in (our)...

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Far Longer And Deeper Than Just The Past Few Months

Hurricane Ida swept up the Gulf of Mexico and slammed into the Louisiana coastline on August 29. The storm would continue to wreak havoc even as it weakened the further inland it traversed. By September 1 and 2, the system was still causing damage and disruption into the Northeast of the United States.While absolutely tragic for those who suffered its blow, in economic terms this means that any weakness exhibited by whichever economic account during both August and September will be blamed...

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Trying To Invest Prosperously In These Times Of China’s Common Prosperity

Maybe the problem is the slogans, though I seriously doubt it. There are, admittedly, way too many and perhaps there is something lost in the translation. Going from Chinese to English can be notoriously tricky, and by sheer number of official catchphrases odds are a few are going to be miscast at the very least. Rebalancing. Rejuvenation. Dual Circulation. No Sharp Turns. Nowadays what Xi Jinping and the rest are calling Common Prosperity.It doesn’t take much to filter each via the...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Perception vs Reality

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities   Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too large. George Carlin   The quote from Dickens above is one that just about everyone knows even if they don’t know where it comes from or haven’t read the book. But, as the ellipsis at the end indicates, there is quite a bit more to the line than the part everyone remembers. It was the best...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 3: The Making Of Fed Mistakes, Volcker’s Enduring Myth

122.3 1970s stagflation? No! But NOT why you think…———Ep 122.3 Summary———“Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present,” writes The Economist. Jeff Snider agrees, but for entirely different reasons. Stagnation? Yes, definitely. But NOT inflation – despite the clear price increases! Wait, what?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from...

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Slowing Down, Yes, But To What?

A couple of Economists have caused some noise by reviewing consumer confidence estimates in the United States, associating big declines in them with imminent recession, and then pointing out such substantial drops in both of the major consumer sentiment surveys just recently. If valid, their correlations would seem to suggest a US contraction.We’re meant to take these seriously for one of those academics, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth, had once “set interest rates at the BOE during the...

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Retail And Food Sales: If It’s Not Inflation, And It’s Not, Then What Is It?

OK, so we went through the ways and reasons consumer price increases are not inflation, cannot be inflation, are nowhere near actual inflation, and what all that really means. The rate they’ve gone up hasn’t been due to an overactive Federal Reserve, so it has to be something else. This is why, though the bulge has been painful, it’s already beginning to normalize. Without a persistent monetary component (in reality, not what’s in the media) the economy will adjust eventually.It already...

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 2: Certain Commodities Speak, Will Anyone Hear Them?

122.2 Commodity Prices Are Telling Us This… ———Ep 122.2 Summary———We review palladium, copper and iron ore – all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too). Some commodities continue to rise in value, specifically energy. How do we reconcile the deflationary/disinflationary former to the inflationary latter? Also, US auto sales. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and...

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