Thursday , August 22 2019
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Tag Archives: Economics

No Recession In Sight? But Cutting Rates To Avoid One

President Trump and his economic advisor Larry Kudlow have important announcements. I can help with translations. Please consider Trump ‘Not Ready’ for China Trade Deal, Dismisses Recession Fears. Consumers Doing Well Trump: “We’re doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money.”Trump Translated: The “tremendous tax” cut primarily benefited the wealthy. Consumers are tapped out. That’s why housing and autos are on the...

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The “Trade War” Is Over, Trump Just Doesn’t Realize It Yet.

On Tuesday, the markets bid higher following a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office that tariffs will commence on September 1st, but that some products will be delayed until December 15th. To wit: “…some tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 as planned, ‘certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent. Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 08-12-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week (The Yield Curve Inverts) Our Best Tweets Of The Week Serious question- If the US were to buy Greenland, I assume Greenland puts that money in...

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Financial Success Formula Failure

The US economy grew at a 2.1% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to data released last week. That was better than economists expected but hardly impressive. Even President Trump recognized this, tweeting the growth rate was “not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck.” That’s the same Federal Reserve of which Trump himself appointed the chair and a majority of board members. But I guess he has to blame somebody. Sadly,...

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The Global Consequences Of A Narcistic And Incompetent POTUS

The world is starting to move sideways. The market talking heads are so clueless. It’s almost laughable listening to them trying to explain away in isolation how the pieces of the puzzle are starting to converge that will or already have ushered in, what we believe, will be an ugly bear market. Believing the Fed can rescue anything and everything is so naive and ridiculous.  We remain perplexed why JFK didn’t call in the Fed to end the Cuban Missile Crisis, or why President Trump...

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10/8/19: Irish Debt Sustainability Miracle(s): ECB and MNCs

As a part of yesterday's discussion about the successes of Irish economic policies since the end of the Eurozone crisis, I posted on Twitter a chart showing two pivotal years in the context of changing fortunes of Irish Government debt sustainability. Here is the chart: The blue line is the difference between the general Government deficit and the primary Government deficit, which captures net cost of carrying Government debt, in percentages of GDP. In simple terms, ECB QE that started...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 08-5-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week Trump calling the Fed "incompetent" may just be his way of revealing the justification for firing or demoting Chair...

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Fed Trapped In a Rate-Cutting Box: It’s The Debt Stupid

The Fed desperately needs to keep credit expanding or the economy will collapse. However, it’s an unsustainable scheme. Key Debt Points In 1984 it took $1 of additional debt to create an additional $1 of Real GDP.As of the fourth quarter of 2018, it took $3.8 dollars to create $1 of real GDP.As of 2013, it took more than a dollar of public debt to create a dollar of GDP.If interest rates were 3.0%, interest on total credit market debt would be a whopping $2.16 trillion per year. That...

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The Fed Continues To Make Policy Mistakes

“During the last year, the Federal Reserve has hinted that the period of ‘ultra-accommodative monetary policy’ was coming to an end. The Fed started that process last October by terminating the latest ‘Quantitative Easing’ program, which induced massive amounts of liquidity into the financial markets. Subsequently, the Fed has turned its focus towards the near ZERO level of the ‘Fed Funds’ rate.” – July 6, 2015 It seems like an eternity ago now, but I warned then the Fed was too late in the...

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China Trade Talks And The Cuban Missile Crisis

We find it interesting that many accuse us of being China apologists because we have concluded from our analysis long ago that President Trump is taking the wrong approach in dealing with the Middle Kingdom.   No argument here we have issues with China that need to be addressed.  China has outgrown its developing country status and its special treatment within the WTO should be removed.   We also are realistic that trying to get China to change its economic model...

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