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Tag Archives: Economics

How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Very little to the upside.  Very much to the downside. Macro Valuation Metrics Lots of incoming over our S&P Shooting Star post, most of which can mostly be summed up to the effect, “Why so bearish?” Seriously?   Our predisposition to the market is always anchored in time tested valuation metrics, which are hard to manipulate.  That is why we like market capitalization deflated by some macro variables, such as nominal GDP or wages. Micro measures, such as Price-to-Earnings are way...

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Capitalism Is The Worst, Except For All The Rest – Part 3

Part 1 – How Wall Street Destroyed Capitalism Part 2 – The Myths Of “Broken Capitalism” In Part 1, we discussed how “Capitalism” was distorted by Wall Street. In Part 2, we reviewed some of the “myths” of capitalism, which are used to garner “votes” by politicians but are not really true. Most importantly, we discussed the fallacy that “more Government” is the answer in creating equality as it impairs economic opportunity. I want to conclude this series with a discussion on the fallacy of...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 10-07-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week So the Fed's "mid-cycle adjustment" now includes at least two 25bps rate cuts (and probably...

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Mauldin: Social Security Is Screwing Millennials

Social Security is a textbook illustration of how government programs go off the rails. It had a noble goal: to help elderly and disabled Americans, who can’t work, maintain a minimal, dignified living standard. Back then, most people either died before reaching that point or didn’t live long after it. Social Security was never intended to do what we now expect, i.e., be the primary income source for most Americans during a decade or more of retirement. Life expectancy when Social Security...

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The Myths Of “Broken Capitalism” – Part 2

Read Part 1 – The Distortion Of Capitalism By Wall Street In the introduction to this series, we discussed the bit of the history leading us to the outcry against capitalism. As I concluded: “The important point is that ‘capitalism’ isn’t broken, but there is one aspect of the system which has morphed into something no one intended. As you hear candidates promising to ‘eat the rich,’ remember ‘political narratives’ designed to win votes is not always representative of what is best for you in...

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How Wall Street Destroyed Capitalism – Part 1

Over the last decade, wealth inequality in America has become a political battleground. It started with #OccupyWallStreet early in President Obama’s term and has morphed into direct calls for socialistic reforms. Is there a problem with capitalism? Does it need reform? Or, is Bernie Sanders correct when he says: Billionaires should not exist. https://t.co/hgR6CeFvLa— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) September 24, 2019In this three-part series, we will explore: How Capitalism Got Distorted By...

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Confidence Drives The Economy & Trump’s Trade War Is Killing It

Economic growth isn’t random. It comes from individual decisions to buy, sell, or do nothing. We all make dozens every day. Corporate CEOs and CFOs make bigger decisions, like whether thousands of people get hired or a factory gets built. That means, the economy generally does better when business leaders see growth opportunities, and worse when they don’t. Right now, the latter is happening. We know why, too: President Trump’s erratic trade policies make long-term planning difficult, to say...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-30-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Our Best Tweets Of The Week Services sector slowing, employment weakening, and manufacturing struggling. The gig is up if...

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Mauldin: Economics Is Like Quantum Physics

I often say a writer is nothing without readers. I am blessed to have some of the world’s greatest. Your feedback never fails to inspire and enlighten me. My last week’s That Time Keynes Had a Point letter brought many more comments than usual. Apparently Keynes is still provocative 73 years after his death, no matter what you say about him. But my real point was about the twisted economic thought that is having dangerous effects on us all. And we can’t blame it just on Keynes. Today I want...

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GDP Estimates Collapse After Dismal ISM Report

GDPNow and other GDP estimates took a dive today on weaker than expected manufacturing reports. The GDPNow forecast for third-quarter GDP fell to 1.8% today on weak economic reports. Gold and Treasuries Rally GDP Estimates Q3 GDP growth estimate changes on FridayMorgan Stanley ⬇️ from 2.1% to 1.5%Macro Economic Advisors ⬇️ from2.2% to 1.6%NY Fed ⬇️ from 2.24% to 2.04%Atlanta Fed ⬆️ from 1.9% to 2.1%— UPFINA (@UPFINAcom) October 1, 2019Oxford Estimate Real Final Sales The...

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