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Tag Archives: Econ

6/1/21: BRIC: Composite Economic Indicators: 4Q 2020

Manufacturing PMIs for BRIC economies for 4Q 2020 are discussed here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/01/4121-bric-manufacturing-pmis-4q-2020.html.Services PMIs are covered here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/01/6121-bric-services-pmis-4q-2020.html.Now, Composite PMIs:Brazil Composite PMI rose from 51.6 in 3Q 2020 to 54.4 in 4Q 2020, marking second consecutive quarter of > 50.0 readings. Average 4 quarters PMI stands at 46.2, suggesting that Brazil's economy has not,...

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6/1/21: BRIC: Services PMIs: 4Q 2020

BRIC's manufacturing PMIs for 4Q 2020 were covered here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/01/4121-bric-manufacturing-pmis-4q-2020.html. Now, to Services PMIs:Brazil Services PMI rose from 47.5 in 3Q 2020 to 51.4 in 4Q 2020, with aggregate 2020 levels of activity still significantly below 2019 levels. At 51.4, the index is barely statistically above 50.0 (95% confidence bound is 51.3). However, the latest quarterly reading is the first nominally above 50.0 after three consecutive...

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5/1/21: Ireland PMIs: 4Q 2020

Ireland's economic activity improved significantly in December, and the improvements were marked across all three sectors:Ireland's Manufacturing PMI rose 52.2 in November to 57.2 in December, marking the third consecutive month of > 50 readings, the second consecutive month of indicator being statistically above 50.0 line. The last three months average (53.23) is on 2Q 2020 average (53.30) and this is pretty encouraging, given the weakness in the indicator over 1H 2020. Ireland's...

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3/12/20: Ireland PMIs: November

Ireland PMIs are out for November and they show the impact of the re-amplification of COVID19 impacts on the economy.Services PMI fell from 48.3 in October to 45.4 in November, the lowest reading in 5 months and the third consecutive monthly reading sub-50. The pandemic period average is now at 39.3.Meanwhile, Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.3 in October to 52.2 in November, marking the second consecutive month of readings above 50.0 mark. Pandemic period average is now at 48.2. Construction...

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17/11/20: U.S. households: Debt Hostages to the Washington

Massive stimulus deployed in Q2 2020 has lifted substantially aggregate household incomes. Meanwhile, lower interest rates have boosted debt affordability, while new demand for credit collapsed. All of which means that, at least through 2Q 2020, U.S. households enjoyed some really dramatic reduction in the burden of debt:Income boost from Government transfers in 2Q 2020 was so large, it took household debt to income ratio down by a whooping 3 years in just one quarter, with the ratio...

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7/11/20: BRIC: Composite Economic Indicators for October

 I covered BRIC Manufacturing and Services PMIs for October in two earlier posts (see here https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/51120-bric-services-pmis-october.html), so now, Composite PMIs:Brazil Composite PMI rose to 55.9 in October, compared to 51.6 in 3Q 2020, and currently sits above Global Composite PMI of 53.3. The latest increase in PMI is a robust signal of partial recovery, marking the third consecutive month of > 50.0 readings that followed five consecutive months of...

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5/11/20: BRIC: Services PMIs October

In the earlier post, I covered BRIC economies manufacturing PMIs for October: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2020/11/31120-bric-manufacturing-pmis-october.html. Now, leet's take a look at Services PMI.As the chart above illustrates:Brazil Services PMI rose from 47.5 in 3Q 2020 to 52.3 in October. Prior to October, Brazil's services sector was in a contractionary territory for three consecutive quarters. October marks the second month of above 50.0 readings, although...

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3/11/20: Ireland PMIs and Economic Activity Dynamics for October

October PMI data for Ireland is showing serious strains from the pandemic and wave 2 on the economic activity: Manufacturing PMI for October came at a recessionary 48.3, marking a moderation on rapid contraction in the sector activity in September (45.8). This marks the second consecutive month of the Manufacturing PMI reading sub-50, and follows two months of partial (at best) recovery in July and August.Services sector PMI for October was at 50.3 - a statistically indifferent reading from...

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