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Tag Archives: Earnings

MacroView: The Next “Minsky Moment” Is Inevitable

In 2007, I was at a conference where Paul McCulley, who was with PIMCO at the time, was discussing the idea of a “Minsky Moment.”  At that time, this idea fell on “deaf ears” as the markets, and economy, were in full swing. However, it wasn’t too long before the 2008 “Financial Crisis” brought the “Minsky Moment” thesis to the forefront. What was revealed, of course, was the dangers of profligacy which resulted in the triggering of a wave of margin calls, a massive selloff in assets to cover...

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MacroView: The Fed’s View Of Valuations May Be Misguided

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concluded their January “FOMC” meeting and released their statement. Overall, there was not much to get excited about, as it was virtually the same statement they released at the last meeting. However, Jerome Powell made a comment which caught our attention: ““We do see asset valuations as being somewhat elevated”  It is an interesting comment because he compares it to equity yields. “One way to think about equity prices is what’s the premium you’re getting...

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MacroView: Elites View The World Through “Market Colored” Glasses

It is easy to suggest the economy is booming when your net worth is in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars, or when your business, and your net worth, directly benefit from surging asset prices. This was the consensus from the annual gaggle of the ultra-rich, politicians, and media stars in Davos, Switzerland this past week. As J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday the stock market is in a “Goldilocks place.”  Of course, it is when you bank receives an...

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MacroView: 2020 Market & Investment Outlook

On Tuesday, Michael Lebowitz and I held private events with our high net worth clients to review our investment strategy and outlook for the rest of the year. The purpose of these events was to provide clarity on portfolio allocation, weightings,  and the risks that could potentially lead to large losses of capital. As we noted in last weekend’s newsletter, we recently took profits in our various portfolio strategies to raise cash slightly, and reduce excess portfolio risk. Given our...

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MacroView: Has The Fed Trapped Itself?

“Don’t fight the Fed” That’s how I started out last week’s “Macroview.” “That is the current mantra of the market as we begin 2020, and it certainly seems to be the right call. Over the last few months, the Federal Reserve has continued its ‘QE-Not QE’ operations, which has dramatically expanded its balance sheet. Many argue, rightly, the current monetary interventions by the Fed are technically ‘Not QE’ because they are purchasing Treasury Bills rather than longer-term Treasury Notes....

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Technically Speaking: Markets Dismiss Iran As The Fed “Put” Remains

You would think that with the U.S. taking out a top Iranian commander, threats of military action flying between the U.S. and Iran, not to mention the “Selective Service” website crashing over concerns of World War III, the markets would be in full “sell” mode. Surreal headline pic.twitter.com/lyItw6vD3n — Hipster (@Hipster_Trader) January 4, 2020 Due to the spread of misinformation, our website is experiencing high traffic volumes at this time. If you are attempting to register or verify...

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MacroView: Will The The Market Repeat The Start Of 2018?

“Don’t fight the Fed” That is the current mantra of the market as we begin 2020, and it certainly seems to be the right call. Over the last few months, the Federal Reserve has continued its “QE-Not QE” operations, which has dramatically expanded its balance sheet. Many argue, rightly, the current monetary interventions by the Fed are technically “Not QE” because they are purchasing Treasury Bills rather than longer-term Treasury Notes. However, “Mr. Market” doesn’t see it that way. As the old...

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2020: The Futility Of Predictions & Understanding The Risk

“Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr We can’t predict the future. If we could, fortune tellers would win all of the lotteries. They don’t, we can’t, and we are not going to try to. However, we can analyze what has happened in the past, weed through the noise of the present, and discern the possible outcomes of the future. The biggest problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is the consistent disregard of the unexpected and random...

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The Stock Market Has Become A Private Club For The Elite

A recent Peter G Peterson Foundation poll, as reported by the Financial Times, revealed a statistic that we have suspected for quite some time. To wit: “Nearly two-thirds of Americans say this year’s record-setting Wall Street rally has had little or no impact on their personal finances, calling into question whether one of the strongest bull markets in a decade will boost Donald Trump’s re-election chances. A poll of likely voters for the Financial Times and the Peter G Peterson Foundation...

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Technically Speaking: How To Pick Up A Porcupine

Buying Because I Have To. You Don’t. “So, if you believe the market is overbought, why are you buying?” There is a difference between views of long-term fundamentally driven potential outcomes, and short-term opportunities in the markets. Let me be VERY clear about something. As a portfolio manager, we buy “opportunity” because we have to. If we don’t, we suffer career risk, plain and simple. However, you don’t have to. If you are truly a long-term investor, you have to question the risk...

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