Wednesday , May 25 2022
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Tag Archives: durable goods

Weekly Market Pulse: This Again??!!

Here we go again. Or maybe, more accurately, here we go still. COVID has reared its ugly head again, this time in the form of a new variant called Omicron. The name surprised some folks because the next letter in the Greek alphabet was Nu, but the WHO thought that sounded too much like “new” so they skipped that one, as Greek speakers are generally confined to Greece these days. And the next letter was “Xi” which the WHO said was a common last name and that their...

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GDP Red Flag

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus pegged quarterly growth at better than 7%.Such a fast drop-off immediately brings up delta COVID, or consumer...

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The Enormously Important Reasons To Revisit The Revisions Already Several Times Revisited

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated. Yet here we are.I’m not saying, nor have I ever alleged, the government is cheating, cooking the books by overinflating...

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With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis). You can see it in how everything is framed. When first presented with this “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn early on in 2019 (they ignored all the market warnings and data...

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More Down In The Downturn

Flash PMI’s from IHS Markit for the US economy were split in October. According to the various sentiment indicators, there’s a little bit of a rebound on the manufacturing side as contrary to the ISM’s estimates for the same sector. Markit reports a sharp uptick in current manufacturing business volumes during this month. The manufacturing index came in at 51.5, up from a revised reading of 51.1 in September based almost entirely on the production subset. But at the same time, a decided drop...

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn’t waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I’ve related in these missives before, he called those things “well-worried”. His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth your time. That has proven to be valuable advice over the years and I think still relevant today. We continue to hear, on an...

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Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate of Change?

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of change. The index itself is a product of econometric research. Economists had been searching for an alternative to the unemployment rate in order to increase the predictive power of their...

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Manufacturing Cross-Currents

ACT Research, the leading publisher of commercial vehicle industry data in North America, reported last week that freight rates in for-hire trucking had declined in May. It was the fourth month in row when prices had been pressured. More and more, there is a downturn growing in the transportation sector. Commenting on freight rates, Tim Denoyer, ACT’s VP and Senior Analyst said: May’s Pricing Index was the fourth consecutive negative, after 30 straight months of expansion. This confirms our...

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Durable Goods And 1998

We have arrived at revisions season once again. It’s that time of year when many if not most (I don’t actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from more comprehensive surveys using far larger samples. These are compared to the existing high frequency panels and changes are made as necessary. Sometimes these are substantial, as we’ve been noting for the past half-decade or so. As is the tendency near always on the downside. This year is...

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Durably Sideways

Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted. None of this, apparently, will include any information gleaned from the comprehensive 2017 Economic Census. I haven’t closely followed the progress of the latter, though it does seem to me to be taking longer to wind its way into the...

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