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Tag Archives: Dubious statistics

Officials Double Down on “Let ‘Er Rip” Strategy, Placing Undue Faith in Vaccines as Regions With High Vaccinations Suffer Infection Spikes

Again and again, all over the world, we’ve seen public health officials all too willing to relax Covid restrictions too early, resulting in an eventual spike in infections and hospitalizations. As we’ll explain, regulators are repeating the same experiment and expecting different outcomes, The classic example was the May CDC “Mission Accomplished” policy change of telling the fully vaccinated they could go about unmasked, even as Delta had become the dominant strain, had viral loads 1000x...

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Jim Chanos: China’s “Leveraged Prosperity” Model is Doomed. And That’s Not the Worst

Yves here. We’ve pointed out from time to time with respect to China that no large economy has ever made the transition from being investment-led to consumption-led without suffering a financial crisis. Here, short-seller Jim Chanos, who has been too early with respect to China longer than Nouriel Roubini was with respect to the global financial crisis, argues that the Chinese real estate bubble has gotten so out of hand despite repeated efforts by the government to let air out of it that bad...

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The Supply Chain Crisis: How We Got Here

Advanced economies are in the throes of what can, without exaggeration, be called a global supply chain crisis. Car makers unable to meet demand and even in many cases produce full featured cars due to chip shortages. Shipping rates spiking then collapsing due to a lack of containers and truckers at ports. Petrol and food shortages in the UK. Warnings even in the US to buy Christmas gifts now because they might not be available later. And there are also increasing reports of shortfalls of...

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Popularism and the Child Tax Credit

Yves here. I am deeply prejudiced against popularism because that the chief tool Marcie Frost is using to run CalPERS into the ground. Poll like crazy to find out what people want to hear, tell them what they want to hear, and rely on them not paying attention to what you are doing (which at CalPERS is staff rather than beneficiary-serving). In the details of the discussion below, Matt Bruenig correctly points out how Daniel Shor tries to make out that the difference between 49% and 53% in a...

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Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage

Yves here. Classic studies by Andrew Card and Alan Krueger on the impact of minimum wage increases on the income and employment levels of fast food workers came to similar conclusions as this paper: increasing minimum wages does not in fact produce unemployment, and so winds up in a net increase in the income of low wage workers. From Vox after Krueger committed suicide: In introductory economics courses, students are typically taught that setting price floors — on milk, oil, or, perhaps most...

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Vaccine-Only Mandates as a Manifestation of the Bizarre Civil War-Stoking Impulses of the Professional-Managerial Class in the US

Never in my worst nightmares did I imagine I would ever want Bernanke and Geithner back in charge. Yes, vast swathes of the public at least dimly recognized that the financial crisis bailouts were designed to preserve the banking system at their expense. Yes, no executives went to jail or even had their feathers ruffled. Yes, the Fed, the Treasury, and central bankers all over the world refused to believe that the derivatives-leveraged debt bomb was aimed at the heart of the financial system,...

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Can the Economy Afford NOT To Fight Climate Change?

Yves here. If humans are fortunate enough merely to suffer a Jackpot rather than a full-bore collapse, perhaps future historians will try to make sense of why individuals and governments did pretty much squat to prevent climate change even when they recognized it really was well underway and would produce very bad outcomes. I imagine that one of those things that they will find unfathomable, being on the other side of the climate disaster, is the ability to rationalize inaction. A big aid in...

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A Football World Cup Every Two Years? An Expert Runs the Numbers

By Christina Philippou, Principal Lecturer, Accounting and Financial Management, University of Portsmouth. Originally published at The Conversation. In May 2021, Fifa began exploring the idea of holding a men’s football World Cup every two years instead of four. Further plans have since been unveiled, and the proposal, which originally came from Saudi Arabia, has received support from some international organisations. Fifa’s chief of global football development and former Arsenal manager...

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Social Security COLA for 2022 To Be Near 5.8%, Could Match 2009, Biggest Since 1982

Yves here. Retirees are typically worried if their limited incomes are losing too much ground to inflation. Wolf Richter argues that the upcoming Social Security increase will fall short of inflation. Mind you, that’s what it’s been designed to do as a result of “reforms” implemented in the early 1990s. What I wonder is how the mix of goods showing hefty price increases (new and used cars, lumber, food) matches up with the typical senior consumption basket. Seniors do eat but they tend to...

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18 Vaccine Experts, Including Top FDA Scientists, Publish Review in The Lancet Saying Current Evidence Doesn’t Support Need for COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for the Fully Vaccinated

By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. Eighteen international vaccine experts published a review in The Lancet yesterday, Considerations in boosting COVID-19 vaccine immune responses, saying current evidence does not support a need for boosters for the fully vaccinated general population at this time.  The authors include Philip Krause and Marion Gruber, two top Food and Drug...

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