Wednesday , October 27 2021
Home / Tag Archives: dollar

Tag Archives: dollar

Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare!

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all-time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10-year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good-sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we’re right back where we were at the end of March when the 10-year yield hit its high for the year. Or are we? Well, yes, the 10-year is back where it was but that doesn’t mean everything else is and, as you’ve probably...

Read More »

While The Fed Chases The Unemployment Rate, TIC’s Eurodollar Deflation Case Is Unusually Unambiguous

The Chinese yuan had traded in a curiously narrow range ever since mid-June. Stuck, it seemed, between 6.50 at the bottom and around 6.45 ceiling, the lack of movement in either direction raised suspicions of concerted official effort. China’s officials, obviously, certainly not those from the Federal Reserve who spend all their time scouring drug reports and benefits cliffs so as to try to legitimize the unemployment rate rather than pay any mind whatsoever to dollars and global money.On...

Read More »

If Dollar History Is A Guide, More Than A Growth Scare

Forgotten now, overridden by the arrival of the coronavirus, Germany’s economy was already well into recession before COVID. Quite a long time before. It wasn’t an earth-shattering collapse reaching downward to an incredible depth, that became the later effect of overreacting to the pandemic. We will simply never know what that prior contraction would have looked like, and how bad it would’ve gone, had SARS never escaped China.Oddly enough, it was the Chinese economy which had much to do...

Read More »

More Dollar Bull

Valentine’s Day, and no one would love the US dollar. There was, instead, quite a lot of disdain for it fueling the usual loud voices who continue to hate it and predict its imminent demise year after year. This particularly lovely day in February 2018 seemed to have added more to the downside cheerleading; the US PPI came in red hot just in time for Cupid.Inflation, they said, was right around the corner and this just wouldn’t be good for the beleaguered greenback. The dollar fell...

Read More »

Previewing The Taper Theater

Eurodollar, not Evergrande. That wasn’t just the point of yesterday’s recall, it is the whole point of beyond fourteen years of going only the wrong way. The deflationary way. Defaults in China are nowadays a commonplace part of that trend, one which began early in 2014 with Shanghai Chaori Solar.What was significant about Chaori was this: “It was the moment when the eurodollar finally caught up to China.” You can literally see it. The problem is despite the deficiency being just this...

Read More »

Bills Flipping The Debt Ceiling

The dollar stopped falling on January 6, beginning a reversal which has lasted more than eight months. This forewarning was joined two days later when TIPS breakevens crossed, inverting the 5-year when compared to the 10-year. About a week after that, T-bills.In other words, as I had written up last week, there actually were quite a few contrary indications in January 2021 just like there had been during September 2017. These may have been less loud than four years ago, yet proving to have...

Read More »

The Eurodollar’s Nose

What an intriguingly odd month September 2017 turned out to be. To start with, Reflation #3 only seemed to be gaining strength. The full throat behind Inflation Hysteria #1 was still ahead, as was its related personage the BOND ROUT!!!! And yet, early in that late summer month a sudden eruption; actually several. On September 5, T-bills. A day later a big one, CNY. Gold. Repo fails. And on and on. While Reflation #3 would continue forward, and after October 2017 it seemed like the...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Windshield Investing

The economic slowdown we’ve been writing about for months officially arrived last Friday in the form of a particularly weak employment report. The number of new jobs created last month – or at least the WAG the BLS makes at such things on a monthly basis – was a mere 235,000 or roughly a cool half-million less than expected by economists who insist on trying to guess this random number on a monthly basis. There was hand wringing and pearl clutching all over the financial...

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: All or Nothing Investing

This week marks a change in our economic environment or at least our perception of it. Last year, post-COVID onset, we characterized the environment as one marked by a falling dollar and improving growth. To be exact, that is the environment the markets reflected; interest rates were rising, the yield curve was steepening and the dollar was falling. That changed somewhat at the beginning of the year when the dollar stopped falling and we shifted to a neutral dollar stance. Then, in the...

Read More »

COVID Copper, or China Syndrome?

Copper, like lumber, had been the star of the space. Each had rocketed upward beginning last fall representing, for many, the leading edge of the inflationary wave sure to follow. The two garnered that much attention as well as given this much importance because the rest of the commodity class hadn’t really come close to matching their meteoric scale.It was supposed to have been copper and lumber fronting the way and then all the rest of the “real” prices following behind. An inflation...

Read More »