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Tag Archives: demographics

6/7/19: American Pride: Another Divide

A great nation, divided and wanting for change as it may be... But just how divided are Americans? Bloomberg chart on a recent Gallup Poll data is quite telling: The first thing to note is the demographic divide by age. Less than 50 percent of 18-29 year olds in the survey are 'extremely' or 'very' proud of being American. Less than 2/3rds of those of age 30-49 do as well. For older generations, the same number is 80 percent and higher.The second is the partisan divide by party...

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The Clash Of Generations Is Here

Don’t know if you caught the Democratic debate the other night, which featured Bernie and Joe, who could be the grandfathers of some of the younger candidates that were on stage, but it also confirmed the arrival of what we have been writing about for years, the Clash of Generations.  Congressman Eric Swalwell was one the young Democrats on stage with Bernie and Uncle Joe last week. If you missed this Atlantic piece, it is definitely a must-read, Money Quotes:  In a variety of...

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How the market could melt-up

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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Suddenly Stuck on Sideways: Banks, Not Babies Nor Bubbles

What is Japanification? There are all sorts of ways to explain what the term can mean. The simplest is a single word, which for me is “sideways.” We live in a non-linear world meaning one where compounding is the biggest factor. Albert Einstein probably never said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, but the reason the saying has stuck and has been almost universally attributed to him is the magnitude of the truth behind it. Rate of change is everything. If things are...

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Demographics isn’t destiny = History rhymes

As new data has crosses my desk, I thought I would write a follow-up to my bullish demographic analysis published two weeks ago (see A different kind of America First). To recap, I observed that America is about to enter another echo demographic boom as the Millennial generation enters its prime earnings years.  A study by San Francisco Fed researchers pointed out that this should raise demand for equities from Millennials. This is especially important as the Baby Boomers reduce their...

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A different kind of America First

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This...

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Let’s Be Like Japan

There has been a lot of angst lately over the rise in interest rates and the question of whether the government will be able to continue to fund itself given the massive surge in the fiscal deficit since the beginning of the year. While “spending like drunken sailors” is not a long-term solution to creating economic stability, unbridled fiscal stimulus does support growth in the short-term. Spending on natural disaster recovery last year (3-major hurricanes and two wildfires) led to a pop...

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Why Markets Believe Fat Tails Are Fairy Tales

Insana nails it. It is also called denial or the inability to distinguish between cyclical issues versus structural shifts, for example.   Such as using monetary policy to deal with demographic issues.   Stabilization policies or structural reform?   Call in the IMF or World Bank?  Or the Pope? Markets In The Land Of Pharaoh It does feel the markets are in Egypt, however.  The land of de Nile. The post-war international order is more at risk of unraveling – and we are not saying its...

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Japan’s Aging Population And Long-Term Growth

WToday’s FOMC minutes release illustrates labor shortages are global in the advanced economies (AE). Contacts in several Districts reported difficulties finding qualified workers, and, in some cases, firms were coping with labor shortages by increasing salaries and benefits in order to attract or retain workers. Other business contacts facing labor shortages were responding by increasing training for less-qualified workers or by investing in automation.  – FOMC minutes The structural...

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