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Tag Archives: demographics

3/2/2020: Demographics and Support for the EU: Populism Base

Rising populism in politics, demographics and the financial crisis aftershocks are linked. Intuitively and empirically. And thus says a new study, published in the Journal of European Public Policy. The study by Fabian Lauterbach and Catherine e. De Vries, titled "Europe belongs to the young? Generational differences in public opinion towards the European Union during the Eurozone crisis" tackles the "...notion that younger people hold more favourable attitudes towards the European Union...

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Inflation, But Only At The Morgue

Why is everyone so angry? How can socialism possibly be on such a rise, particularly among younger people around the world? Why are Americans suddenly dying off? According to one study, two-thirds of millennials are convinced they are doing worse when compared to their parents’ generation. Sixty-two percent say they are living paycheck to paycheck, with no savings and no way to get any (though they also tend to “overspend” when compared to other age groups). Worst of all, premature deaths....

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Demographics beyond the 2020s

I received some thoughtful feedback to my recent post (see The OK Boomer decade). In particular, one reader referred me to an article by Greg Ip of the WSJ regarding the demographic headwinds affecting the American labor force. The U.S. will run out of people to join the workforce. Indeed, this bright cyclical picture for the labor market is on a collision course with a dimming demographic outlook. While jobs are growing faster than expected, population is growing more slowly. In July of...

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The OK Boomer decade

Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and...

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Highest Paid Public-Sector Employee In Each State

Though the following map doesn’t surprise us, it is a bit disheartening to see where our priorities lie.  Panem et circenses (bread and circuses), baby, even at the public Academy! If the data are true, there are only nine states in the nation where the highest-paid public-sector employee is not a coach.  No doubt, however, a highly paid coach at a public university operates under different incentives than, say, a third-grade school teacher, where universities are constantly...

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Why The Measure Of “Savings” Is Entirely Wrong

In our recent series on capitalism (Read Here), we were discussing how the implementation of socialism, by its very nature, requires an ability to run unlimited deficits. In that discussion was the following quote: “Deficits are self-financing, deficits push rates down, deficits raise private savings.” – Stephanie Kelton On the surface, there does seem to be a correlation between surging deficits and increases in private savings, as long as you ignore the long-term trend, or the reality of...

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Peak Buybacks? Has Corporate Indulgence Hit Its Limits

Since the passage of “tax cuts,” in late 2017, the surge in corporate share buybacks has become a point of much debate. As I previously wrote, stock buybacks are once again on pace to set a new record in 2019. To wit: “A recent report from Axios noted that for 2019, IT companies are again on pace to spend the most on stock buybacks this year, as the total looks set to pass 2018’s $1.085 trillion record total.” The reason companies spend billions on buybacks is to increase bottom-line...

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The Disconnect Between The Markets & Economy Has Grown

A couple of years ago, I wrote an article discussing the disconnect between the markets and the economy. At that time, the Fed was early into their rate hiking campaign. Talks of tax cuts from a newly elected President filled headlines, corporate earnings were growing, and there was a slew of fiscal stimulus from the Government to deal with the effects of 3-major hurricanes and 2-devastating wildfires. Now, the Fed is cutting rates, so it is time to revisit that analysis. Previously, the...

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6/7/19: American Pride: Another Divide

A great nation, divided and wanting for change as it may be... But just how divided are Americans? Bloomberg chart on a recent Gallup Poll data is quite telling: The first thing to note is the demographic divide by age. Less than 50 percent of 18-29 year olds in the survey are 'extremely' or 'very' proud of being American. Less than 2/3rds of those of age 30-49 do as well. For older generations, the same number is 80 percent and higher.The second is the partisan divide by party...

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The Clash Of Generations Is Here

Don’t know if you caught the Democratic debate the other night, which featured Bernie and Joe, who could be the grandfathers of some of the younger candidates that were on stage, but it also confirmed the arrival of what we have been writing about for years, the Clash of Generations.  Congressman Eric Swalwell was one the young Democrats on stage with Bernie and Uncle Joe last week. If you missed this Atlantic piece, it is definitely a must-read, Money Quotes:  In a variety of...

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