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Tag Archives: Debt

The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. As I showed in my discussion of the Fed’s forecasts, these predictions have continued to fall short of reality. “Besides being absolutely the worst economic forecasters on the planet, the Fed’s real problem is contained within the table and chart below. Despite the rhetoric of stronger employment and economic growth – plunging imports and...

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A Bug In Search Of A Windshield

Editor Note: Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management.  He is a regular contributor to Real Investment Advice. On numerous occasions over the past year we’ve suggested U.S. equity valuations were expensive. Certainly the recent sharp rebound in share prices in the midst of declining earnings, lower earnings forecasts and slowing domestic and global economic growth has only...

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The Illusion Of Permanent Liquidity

It’s been more than seven years since the financial crisis and Central Banks globally have kept their rates at record lows, and have even ventured into negative rate territory, to stave off the threat of a recessionary relapse and boost anemic economic growth. While such policies have failed to spark inflationary pressures or boost economic growth, the “illusion of permanent liquidity” has spurred investors to make risky bets and push up asset prices. This “illusion” has not only been driving...

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Buying Dollar Bills For $1.10

Editor Note: Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management.  He is a regular contributor to Real Investment Advice. The following research was jointly produced by: J. Brett Freeze, CFA of Global Technical Analysis and 720 Global 720 Global has written four articles to date on stock buybacks and the harm these actions will likely have on future corporate growth rates and the...

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Is Trump’s “Recession Warning” Really All Wrong?

Over the weekend, Donald Trump, in an interview with the Washington Post, stated that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market. Of course, such a distinctly gloomy view of the economy runs counter to the more mainstream consensus of economic outlooks as witnessed by some of the immediate rebuttals: There are no signals of any “massive” recession ahead or a market crash...

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Limiting Losses

Editor Note: I would like to welcome Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research to the realinvestmentadvice.com family of contributors. 720 Global is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management.  “Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, how much they can make and pay little attention to risk, how much they can lose.” – Seth Klarman  Growing wealth through investing typically occurs over a long time horizon that...

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An Investor’s Compendium Of Wall Street Wisdoms

Over the last 30-years, I have endeavored to learn from my own mistakes and, trust me, I have paid plenty of “stupid-tax.” However, it is only from making mistakes, that we learn how to become a better investor, advisor or portfolio manager. In the media, there is a select group of investors and portfolio managers that are revered for the knowledge and success. While we idolize these investors for their respective “genius,” we can also save ourselves time and money by learning from their...

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The NIRP Hail Mary

Editor Note: I would like to welcome Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research to the realinvestmentadvice.com family of contributors. 720 Global is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management.  Over the past 30 years, many central banks have tried to re-order the natural drivers of economies. As opposed to savings and investment driving production and consumption, they moved consumption to the front of the line, meaning...

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7-Deadly Investing Sins

I have often written about the emotional and psychological factors that inhibit long-term investment performance (most recently here). Despite repeated studies that suggest investors should just buy “passive index” funds and “hold on” until eternity, the reality is that it simply does not work that way. If you were raised in a religious household, or were sent to a Catholic school, you have heard of the seven deadly sins. These transgressions — wrath, greed, sloth, pride, lust, envy, and...

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The Chart Every 25-Year-Old Should Ignore

There are two primary reasons Millennials aren’t saving like they should. The first is the lack of money to save, the second is the lack of trust in Wall Street. A recent post from JP Morgan, via Andy Kiersz, got me to thinking on this issue. “JPMorgan shows outcomes for four hypothetical investors who invest $10,000 a year at a 6.5% annual rate of return over different periods of their lives: Chloe invests for her entire working life, from 25 to 65. Lyla starts 10 years later, investing from...

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