Wednesday , October 16 2019
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Tag Archives: Data

Little Resolution in the Week Ahead

According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world.  No one succeeded until Alexandar the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half.  A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo.  "Why are you crying?" the boy asked, "You just conquered the world.  "Yes'" Alexander wept, "Now there is nothing else for me to do."  Investors are not as cursed as Alexander the Great.  But what challenges investors...

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The 20 Most Valuable Companies in the World – Jan 2019

This post lists the 20 publicly traded companies with the largest market capitalization as of today. Since my November 2017 list of the 20 most valuable stocks the value of 2 companies increased by more than $150 billion and 4 companies value decreased by over $100 billion. In the 20 most valuable companies list there are 13 USA companies, 4 Chinese companies and 1 each for Korea, Netherlands and Switzerland. The remaining 15 companies with market caps above $200 billion are based...

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16/10/18: Data analytics. It really is messier than you thought

An interesting study (H/T to @stephenkinsella) highlights the problems with empirical determinism that is the basis for our (human) evolving trust in 'Big Data' and 'analytics': the lack of determinism in statistics when it comes to social / business / finance etc data.Here is the problem: researchers put together 29 independent teams, with 61 analysts. They gave these teams the same data set on football referees decisions to give red cards to players. They asked the teams to evaluate the...

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Factfulness – An Extremely Valuable Book

Factfulness by Hans Roling (of TED talks and Gapminder charts fame) is an exceptionally good book. It provides great insight into how to think more effectively and how to understand the reality of the world we live in (versus the large distortions so common in most people’s vision of the world). You can take a quick quiz to see how well you understand the world today. Today the people living in rich countries around the North Atlantic, who represent 11 percent of the world...

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Dollar Dropped like Hot Potato After Core CPI Disappointed

  The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month.  The dollar reversed lower.   Retail sales were largely in line with expectations.  The 1.6% headline increased missed expectations by 0.1%, which is exactly what the August series was revised by (new reading of -0.1% instead of...

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Long Term Changes in Underlying Stock Market Valuation

I have written before about one of the most important changes I believe is needed in thinking about investing over the last few decades: Historical Stock Returns. My belief is that there has been a fundamental change in the valuation of stocks. Long term data contains a problem in that we have generally realized that stocks are more valuable than realized 100 years ago. That means a higher based PE ration is reasonable and it distorts at what level stocks should be seen as very...

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Long Term Changes in Underlying Stock Market Valuation

I have written before about one of the most important changes I believe is needed in thinking about investing over the last few decades: Historical Stock Returns. My belief is that there has been a fundamental change in the valuation of stocks. Long term data contains a problem in that we have generally realized that stocks are more valuable than realized 100 years ago. That means a higher based PE ration is reasonable and it distorts at what level stocks should be seen as very...

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‘Soft’ Data Slump Continues – Dallas Fed Misses, Tumbles Most In 14 Months

Following disappointing Manufacturing and Services PMIs last week, this week has not started well for the hope embedded in 'soft' survey data. After six straight months higher, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook slumped in March (down 7.6pts to 16.9). This is the biggest drop since Jan 2016 and was lower than all estimates. New Orders, Inventories, and number of employees all tumbled. Prices Paid and Received fell (but the latter consierably more than the former). Hope for the future also...

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YouTube Joins The “Fake News” Crusade, Shuts Down Popular Conservative Channel

Late last night YouTube blocked the channel of the influential conservative politics and law website, "Legal Insurrection," citing copyright infringement claims.  The creator of the website, Cornell University Law Professor William Jacobson, told Fox News he was given no warning of the action and no opportunity to defend himself, saying "it’s very frustrating, it’s very scary, to have 8 years of content removed without a chance to defend yourself." Without notice, YouTube replaced Legal...

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Fed’s National Activity Index Tumbles To 3-Month Lows Post-Trump

As confidence and sentiment measures soar to record highs post-Trump, the real economy is just not living up to expectations. The Fed's own "National Activity Index" tumbled to -0.27 in November - the lowest in 3 months (and 4th consecutive economic contraction). CFNAI dropped to -0.27 in November as two of the four broad categories of the 85 indicators in the index decreasing in November... Production-related and consumption-and-housing-related indicators both decreased. Employment-related...

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